The large winners Tuesday night time had been election legal professionals — and blood strain drugs gross sales reps.
We have now two races shut sufficient for recounts, together with the marquee race, the place state Sen. John McGuire declared victory — though his 327-vote lead over Rep. Bob Good will stay unsure till we see what number of mail ballots arrive earlier than Friday’s deadline and the way they break.
Mathematically talking, it appears uncertain that Good could make up that margin, however I can’t think about that Good will fortunately accede to that math.
In the intervening time, the McGuire-Good race is shut sufficient to permit for a recount, however simply outdoors the margin the place the state bears the price. Ditto the Republican main for Vinton District supervisor in Roanoke County, the place Supervisor Tammy Shepherd seems to have gained by 17 votes over college board member Tim Greenway. (If the margin is between half a share level and 1 share level, the obvious loser can ask for a recount, however has to pay.)
There’s a 3rd race that’s simply outdoors the recount margin, however may slip again inside that margin relying on late-arriving ballots — within the epic wrestle for Lynchburg’s Ward IV council seat, incumbent Chris Faraldi seems to have defeated Peter Alexander by 21 votes, which works out to a margin of 1.04%. You’ll be able to guess the Alexander facet will likely be hoping some extra mail ballots arrive.
With that set-up, our evaluation of Tuesday’s outcomes begins with a fantastic irony:
1. A celebration that has been skeptical of early voting and mail ballots will see its most controversial nomination settled by these strategies.
Because the vote counting within the Good-McGuire race got here all the way down to the tip Tuesday night time, Good may maintain onto hope that there have been nonetheless a number of early votes nonetheless uncounted — and most of these had been in counties he carried. Good did, certainly, win the early vote in a lot of these, however not by margins sufficiently big to make up McGuire’s lead.
Now Good should wait on these mail ballots and Virginia’s liberal legal guidelines that enable them to be counted so long as they’re postmarked by the deadline on Election Day. (Of be aware: That’s additionally how tax returns are dealt with; you simply need to have it postmarked by tax day, however few individuals see that as a liberal provision. Think about for those who needed to rely on the publish workplace to get your tax return to the Inner Income Service by April 15!)
2. A candidate who professed his love for Trump wound up making an attempt to depend on one of many few locations that Nikki Haley carried.
McGuire led narrowly by way of many of the vote counting Tuesday night time (Good pulled forward briefly after Lynchburg reported) however noticed an already slender lead get even narrower because the night time wore on. The ultimate precincts to be counted got here from Albemarle County.
I’d lengthy puzzled how Albemarle and Charlottesville would go. They had been a number of the few localities in Virginia that Haley carried within the March presidential main. What would Haley voters make of a alternative between the pinnacle of the Home Freedom Caucus, who known as Trump the very best president of his lifetime (Good), and a candidate endorsed by Trump (McGuire)? In some methods, we don’t actually know as a result of it’s unclear (no less than to me) who the Republicans voting Tuesday in Albemarle had been. Within the March presidential main, Albemarle noticed 9,213 voters. On Tuesday, solely 5,583 individuals within the county voted within the Republican main, so we noticed an terrible lot of dropouts. My guess could be these no-shows included a number of these Haley voters. In any case, of these Albemarle Republicans who did present up, Good gained nearly all of them. That helped him pull nearer to McGuire, however not shut sufficient.
3. Why did Good fall quick? He misplaced massive in Danville and Pittsylvania County
There are many explanation why Good seems to have misplaced. Former President Donald Trump endorsed McGuire. His function in ousting Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy drew a number of nationwide cash that was funneled to McGuire. We may go on and on. Geographically talking, although, Good failed to determine a base within the coronary heart of the 5th District in Danville and Pittsylvania County. McGuire took 62% of the vote in Danville, successful town by 411 votes. In Pittsylvania, McGuire took 56% of the vote, and gained the county by 697 votes.
McGuire had a barely larger share in Powhatan County — 62%. However that county is true subsequent to his residence county of Goochland County, the place he took 61%. It doesn’t shock me {that a} candidate did nicely in and close to his residence. What’s extra stunning to me is how totally Good was whipped in Danville and Pittsylvania County.
4. McGuire ran stronger in his residence areas than Good did in his
Let’s start with residence counties. McGuire took 61% in Goochland County; Good took 56% in Campbell County.
McGuire’s state Senate district (which he’s solely represented since January) accommodates all or elements of 11 counties, 10 of that are within the 5th District. Chronologically, Good had a head begin in all these counties. Nonetheless, on Tuesday, McGuire beat Good in seven of them. Within the three counties in his state Senate he misplaced, he solely misplaced Appomattox County by three votes.
5. This was the second-biggest turnout for a Republican congressional main ever in Virginia
The report stays the 2014 main within the 7th District the place Dave Brat ousted incumbent Eric Cantor, who was on a path which may have made him speaker of the Home sometime. The competition drew 65,021 voters. It seems like this yr’s 5th District contest thus far has 62,495 voters. In contrast, the second-biggest draw on the Republican facet Tuesday night time was within the 7th District on the sting of Northern Virginia, which noticed 35,354 voters.
6. Donald Trump had an excellent night time in Virginia
Given the closeness of the McGuire-Good race, it appears truthful to say that with out Trump’s endorsement — and it was each an enthusiastic endorsement of McGuire and a fairly vicious tear-down of Good — that McGuire wouldn’t have gained.
Likewise, Trump’s most well-liked candidate for the U.S. Senate nomination — retired army officer Hung Cao — rolled to a landslide win. In fact, it additionally helped that Cao had much more cash than his opponents, however Trump’s endorsement positively lifted him out of the pack.
7. Cao’s dismissal of some communities didn’t damage him
He implied that Staunton was “podunk.” He took 57.95% of the vote there. He stated Abingdon was too far to drive for a marketing campaign discussion board. He took 53.67% of the vote there. Simply weeks earlier than the election, the Pittsylvania County Republican Committee publicly posted that he nonetheless hadn’t visited the county. He took 53.91% of the vote there. Furthermore, no one got here near him. Cao gained each locality within the state and was by no means significantly threatened.
8. There isn’t a clear winner within the battles between Republican factions
The McGuire-Good race appeared to pit two candidates from the MAGA world towards one another, though perhaps that’s not so. I noticed one conservative commentator (apologies for forgetting who) describe this as a contest between “massive authorities conservatives” (McGuire/Trump) and a “constitutional conservative” (Good).
The conflicts had been clear in two native races. Republicans on the Lynchburg Metropolis Council have been embroiled in a battle between two completely different factions, with council members Marty Misjuns and Jeff Helgeson on one facet, and Mayor Stephanie Reed and Vice Mayor Faraldi on the opposite. A lot of that could be a matter of tone, with the previous group being extra hardline and the latter group being extra reasonable in tone, if not in politics. Faraldi gained narrowly over the Misjuns-Helgeson candidate, however the slender margin hardly appears prone to quiet the opposite facet.
In Roanoke County, Supervisor Tammy Shepherd, who appears a extra typical conservative oriented towards financial growth points, narrowly defeated college board member Tim Greenway, who’s actually extra of a tradition warrior.
A be aware about that race: About half the ballots there have been solid early, which is excessive for a Republican main. Shepherd had a transparent lead till these got here in; the early votes broke towards Greenway.
9. In Roanoke, Jackson may need gained if he hadn’t dropped out
Roanoke Democrats had a main the place 4 candidates had been in search of three at-large nominations. The competition appeared to develop into much less attention-grabbing when Jamaal Jackson introduced he was dropping out — then received extra attention-grabbing as soon as it was revealed {that a}) Jackson’s marketing campaign hadn’t submitted sufficient legitimate signatures to qualify for the poll, b) police are investigating allegations that his marketing campaign used signatures from his unsuccessful impartial run two years in the past, and c) Jackson may need stated he was quitting, however didn’t formally withdraw, which meant he was nonetheless a authorized candidate.
The Roanoke Occasions studies that Jackson lastly delivered that official discover on Tuesday. In trying on the outcomes, it appears doubtless that Jackson may need gained one of many three nominations had he stayed within the race. The unofficial numbers: Phazhon Nash 2,646, Terry McGuire 2,439, Benjamin Woods 1,615, Jackson 1,143. If Jackson had stayed within the race, may he have picked up 473 votes to overhaul Woods? That appears fairly doubtless.
10. Roanoke’s council race received extra attention-grabbing with two new candidates
Two independents filed for the council race, together with Treasurer Evelyn Powers, who has gained 5 elections as a Democrat. She’s additionally by no means confronted opposition, so it’s unclear what her vote-getting energy is admittedly like. Nonetheless, she and fellow impartial Cathy Reynolds can even be the one ladies on the poll for the council. That is the primary time in a decade that Roanoke Democrats haven’t nominated a girl for the council. They’ve additionally now nominated three candidates who’ve by no means held workplace earlier than. How a lot will Powers’ candidacy roil issues? If she winds up taking votes away from any of the Democratic candidates, that will assist her — but additionally probably Republican candidates Nick Hagen and Jim Garrett.
Need extra political evaluation? I write a free weekly e-newsletter, West of the Capital, that goes out each Friday afternoon. You’ll be able to join it right here: