Poll: Trump and Biden in Virtual Tie Among Nevada Voters

A new poll shows that the presidential race is tightening up in the battleground state of Nevada.

According to the Tableau-Survey Monkey 2020 election poll, Democratic candidate Joe Biden leads Nevada with a polling average of 51%, while President Donald Trump is close behind at 48%. The survey was also carried out in collaboration with Axios.

The average is from a series of surveys from Sept. 28 to Oct. 25, with 3,015 likely voters surveyed.

“Data have been weighted for age , race , sex, education and geography using the American Population Survey of the Census Bureau to represent the demographic makeup of the United States age 18 and over,” said Survey Monkey and Tableau.

This represents identical figures to the actual results of the 2016 election, when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won six state elections with 47.9% of the vote, according to the New York Times.

Trump won 45.5 percent of the vote, while Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson won 3.3 percent.

Although the state has gone blue in the past, this poll shows that Nevada could still be a very competitive state.

Republicans are continuing their efforts to register their voters strongly in the state.

“In Nevada, where Democrats consistently out-register Republicans in the run-up to the polls, the GOP has defeated Democrats for at least five months since the pandemic struck,” Associated Press said.

Polling from other swing states also reflects a close competition.

Political strategist and pollster Frank Luntz has found a similar trend to 2016 of Real Strong Polling averages in crucial swing states.

The average RCP battlefield poll:

RCP battleground poll average:

𝗢𝗰𝘁. 𝟮𝟵, 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟲
• Florida: (Tied)
• Pennsylvania: Clinton +5.6
• Michigan: +7
• Wisc: +6.2
• NC: +3.2

𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆
• Florida: Biden +1.2
• Pennsylvania: +5.1
• Michigan: +7.8
• Wisc: +4.6
• NC: +1.5

👉🏻 https://t.co/ZBRpAvXwZT https://t.co/GZmTCAxlSI

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) October 25, 2020

Many of Trump’s backers and advocates have understandable reservations about the poll, considering that Trump secured the presidency in an upset 2016 win.

Although the national poll correctly forecast that Clinton would win the popular vote, the state poll was a very different story.

Do you think Trump’s going to win Nevada?

A significant part of the inaccuracies had to do with people being afraid to say that they would vote for Trump as a survey taker over the internet.

Pollsters have failed to account for Clinton’s reluctance to campaign heavily in some Rust Belt states, where Trump conducted consistent rallies.

Those same shy voters might theoretically be casting their votes for Trump again in 2020 and could be putting Trump on the verge in some frontline states.

Although most data suggest that Biden won this election, the race is still clearly competitive and anything is possible.