Connect with us

Bitcoin

Analyst Puts Bitcoin Bottom At $50,000, Here’s Why

Published

on

Picture of a bitcoin with a green trend line pointing down

With bitcoin rallying, all the focus has been on predicting where the price of the asset will be by the end of the year. The digital asset is undoubtedly going to enter a period where various crashes will send the price down, popularly known as a bear market. Not a lot of attention has been paid to where the price of the asset might bottom out when the market inevitably goes into another bear market.

This usually long stretch of low momentum has seen bitcoin lose 94%, 87%, and 84% of its peak value respectively in the last three bear markets. One recurring theme of the bear markets has been the diminishing percentages of total value lost. At this rate, it is expected that BTC will see between 75% and 80% loss from its peak this cycle. Market analyst Justin Bennett uses this to predict where BTC will bottom out next.

The Next Bitcoin Bottom

Bennett put the next bitcoin bottom at $50,000 after analyzing the possible price movements of the digital asset. With the current cycle, the analyst sees the price of bitcoin hitting $200,000 before the bull run is over, hence a 75% to 80% pullback in a bear market will see the bottom of the asset land around the $50,000 range.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Leads Charge Of Large Cap Altcoin Dominance In October

This bottom is solely based on the cryptocurrency hitting the price range that Bennett expects the asset to peak at by the end of the rally. If BTC does not hit this price point before the bull rally is over then we might see a BTC bottom land at a much lower price range.

BTC goes into the red ahead of Friday opening | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bennett’s pullback analysis has a lot of credit given that markets are historically known to see lower pullbacks as assets mature. So the 75% to 80% mark does resonate with what the market is known to do. However, if the price of BTC falls short of Bennett’s prediction or doesn’t move the needle much from its current price point, then the BTC bottom may land in the $10,000 to $15,000 range using the pullback analysis.

The Peak Before The Fall

Bennett’s analysis did not focus solely on the crash of the digital asset. He put forward his argument for the price of BTC at $200,000 using technical analysis of the market. The analyst points to Fibonacci extensions as indicators of where the price of bitcoin may peak during this cycle.

For the Fibonacci extensions, comparisons between the 2.272 and 2.414 extensions from previous cycles have both given a target area which the asset had hit both times. Going by this, Bennett sees the asset peaking between $207,000 and $270,000 before the current cycle is over.

Related Reading | Bitcoin New All-Time Cleared, $100,000 Straight Ahead?

Moving forward, the analyst plans to use the monthly RSI to time market exits “Notice how BTC tends to end cycles when the monthly RSI reaches above 90,” Bennett says. “It’s also exhibited a double top pattern each cycle, which leads me to believe it happens again.”

Bennett plans to use a combination of net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) and the monthly RSI to slowly exit the asset over the next couple of months.

Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
google news
Advertisement

Bitcoin

Ethereum Topside Bias Vulnerable If It Breaks This Key Support

Published

on

Ethereum

Ethereum trimmed gains from the $4,800 resistance against the US Dollar. ETH is down 5% and it might decline further if there is a break below $4,350.

  • Ethereum failed to clear the $4,800 resistance and started a fresh decline.
  • The price is now trading near $4,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $4,600 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
  • The pair could decline further below $4,500 if there is a close below the 100 hourly SMA.

Ethereum Price Trims Gains

Ethereum struggled to clear the $4,800 resistance zone and started a fresh decline. ETH broke the key $4,650 support to enter a bearish zone.

Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $4,600 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The pair even traded below the $4,550 support zone. It is now trading near $4,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

A low is formed near $4,455 and is currently consolidating losses. An initial resistance on the upside is near the $4,540 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,783 high to $4,455 low.

The first major resistance is near the $4,580 level. The next major resistance is near the $4,620 level. It coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,783 high to $4,455 low.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

A close above the $4,600 and $4,620 levels could start a fresh increase in the near term. In the stated case, the price might rise towards the $4,750 level. Any more gains could lift the price towards the $4,800 zone in the near term.

More Losses in ETH?

If ethereum fails to start a fresh increase above the $4,600 level, it could start a downside correction. An initial support on the downside is near the $4,500 level.

The first key support is now forming near the $4,450 level. A downside break below the $4,450 support zone could push the price further lower. The main breakdown support is $4,350, below which the price could decline heavily.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACDThe MACD for ETH/USD is gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSIThe RSI for ETH/USD is now well below the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $4,450

Major Resistance Level – $4,620

google news
Continue Reading

Bitcoin

David Marcus, The Latest Top Executive To Leave Meta/ Facebook’s Crypto Project

Published

on

David Marcus, executive exiting

Another one bites the dust. David Marcus stepped down as the head of Novi, Meta/ Facebook’s fintech division. The company’s first order of business was to create a cryptocurrency, but regulators around the world were not keen on the idea. After a few missteps and name changes, they finally released a wallet called Novi to little fanfare. The coin, now named Diem, is still in development and unreleased.

Related Reading | What Zuckerberg’s Meta Means for the Metaverse

David Marcus Says Goodbye

This is not the first time this happens, other top executives have abandoned Meta’s ship over the years. CNBC recapitulates:

“Marcus’s departure follows that of other key executives who led Facebook’s ill-fated efforts in blockchain. Fellow project founder Morgan Beller left the company in September 2020 to go into venture capital. Kevin Weil, another one of the project founders, left in March to join Planet, a San Francisco company.”

Ex-Upwork CEO Stephane Kasriel will replace David Marcus, who in a Facebook post announcing his departure said:

“The one thing I’m the proudest of during my time here is the amazing kickass team we’ve assembled over the last three years. This is the most resilient, passionate, determined and talented group of humans I’ve ever worked with. I find comfort and confidence in knowing that they will continue to execute our important mission well under Stephane Kasriel’s leadership, and I can’t wait to witness this from the outside.”

Mark Zuckerberg responded to David Marcus: 

“I’ve learned so much working with you and I’m so grateful for everything you’ve done for this place. We wouldn’t have taken such a big swing at Diem without your leadership and I’m grateful you’ve made Meta a place where we make those big bets. You’ve built a great team, and while I’ll miss working with you, I’m looking forward to working with Stephane to lead the team going forward.”

https://twitter.com/skasriel/status/1465747314371227650

For his part, Stephane Kasriel said via Twitter:

“I am so honored for the opportunity to lead the awesome Novi team, and look forward to continuing to build products and services that allow more access for people and businesses to the financial system and digital economy.”

FACEBOOK price chart on BMFBOVESPA | Source: TradingView.com

What’s The Deal With Libra/Calibra/Novi/Diem?

After many iterations, Diem is now a stablecoin prototype. For its part Novi, the wallet, is only available in the United States and Guatemala. Facebook/Meta is running a pilot program to test the technology and gather data. They’re trying to steal the remittances market in Guatemala, which constitutes 14% of the county’s GDP. Using the Novi wallet, it’s almost free.

Nowadays, Facebook/Meta is using the Paxos stablecoin USDP as their standard. About this, David Marcus said via Twitter. “USDP is a well-designed stablecoin that’s been operating successfully for over three years and has important regulatory and consumer protection attributes.  I do want to be clear that our support for Diem hasn’t changed and we intend to launch Novi with Diem once it receives regulatory approval and goes live. We care about interoperability and we want to do it right.”

Related Reading | Facebook Officials Claim Novi Received Approval From Major U.S. States

However, will Diem ever receive regulatory approval? For Facebook/Meta, that’s the Trillion-Dollar question. The company’s reputation regarding its handling of personal data is hampering the whole operation. And, well, governments around the world don’t seem to want a company like Facebook in charge of the money. And, well, the project’s been all over the place from the very beginning. No offense to David Marcus, who claims to be Diem’s “Co-creator & Board member.”

The project’s slogan is “To build a trusted and innovative financial network that empowers people and businesses around the world.” And, well, that’s Bitcoin. Why don’t they just plug in to the winning open network? Because Meta wants to be in control of the money supply. And that’s what government’s around the world are trying to prevent.

Featured Image: mohamed_hassan on Pixabay | Charts by TradingView

google news
Continue Reading

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Shows Bearish Signs, Risk of Breakdown Below $56K

Published

on

Bitcoin

Bitcoin failed again to clear the $58,500 resistance against the US Dollar. BTC is declining and it might accelerate lower below the $56,000 support in the near term.

  • Bitcoin is struggling to move above the $58,000 and $58,500 levels.
  • The price is just trading above $57,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $57,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could accelerate lower if there is a clear break below the $56,000 support zone.

Bitcoin Price is Struggling

Bitcoin price failed to gain pace above the $58,500 resistance zone. BTC is slowly moving lower from the last swing high at $58,890. There was a break below the $58,000 level.

The price traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $53,300 swing low to $58,890 high. Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $57,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin is now just trading above $57,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $57,500 level. The first major resistance is near the $58,000 level.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The main resistance is still near the $58,500 level. A clear break above the $58,500 resistance zone could open the doors for more upsides. The next key resistance is near the $60,000 level, above which the price could rise steadily. The next stop for the bulls may possibly be near the $61,200 level.

Fresh Drop In BTC?

If bitcoin fails to clear the $58,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. An immediate support on the downside is near the $57,000 level. The first major support is now forming near the $56,800 level and the 100 hourly SMA.

The next major support is near the $56,000 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $53,300 swing low to $58,890 high. A downside break below the $56,000 support may perhaps push the price towards $55,500. Any more losses might start a major decline towards $52,000.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $57,000, followed by $56,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $58,000, $58,500 and $60,000.

google news
Continue Reading

Trending