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TA: Bitcoin Reclaims $50K, Why 100 SMA Is The Key For Larger Increase

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin is recovering and trading above $50,000 against the US Dollar. ETH must settle above $51,000 and the 100 hourly SMA to continue higher.

  • Bitcoin started a recovery wave above the key $50,000 resistance zone.
  • The price is now trading near $51,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a short-term bullish trend line forming with support near $49,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could start a decent upward move if there is a close above $51,000.

Bitcoin Price Gains Momentum

Bitcoin price started a decent recovery wave after a major decline below $45,000. BTC climbed back above the $46,500 and $48,000 resistance levels to start the recent recovery.

The price is back above the $49,200 resistance level. There as a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the $57,690 swing high to $40,150 low. Besides, the bulls were able to push the price above the key $50,000 resistance zone.

There is also a short-term bullish trend line forming with support near $49,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair is now trading near $51,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $51,000 level and the 100 hourly SMA. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the $57,690 swing high to $40,150 low. A clear break above the $51,000 resistance zone could open the doors for more upsides.

The next key resistance is near the $52,500 level, above which the price could accelerate higher. In the stated case, the price could rise towards the $53,500 level.

Fresh Decline In BTC?

If bitcoin fails to clear the $51,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh downside correction. An immediate support on the downside is near the $50,200 level.

The first major support is now forming near the $49,600 level and the trend line. A downside break below the $49,600 support may perhaps start a fresh decline. The next stop for the bears might be $46,000.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $50,200, followed by $49,600.

Major Resistance Levels – $51,000, $52,500 and $53,500.

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Bitcoin

Downward DOGE: Descending Dogecoin Pattern Predicts Deadly Drop

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dogecoin downward dog

Dogecoin has had a dramatic year. Starting only one year ago, DOGEUSD passed the one cent mark and embarked on a meme-fueled moon mission toward $1.

It never quite got there, and has been in a downtrend ever since. The downtrend has also since taken a walk down a dangerous path, putting the altcoin in jeopardy of another deadly drop. Here is what could be in store for Dogecoin in the days ahead.

Crypto House Training: Good DOGE, Bad Behaviors

There are two sides to every coin, and even a good dog can behave badly at times. Dogecoin was last year’s cryptocurrency all-star, rising from under a penny to nearly $1. It even managed to crack into the top five cryptocurrencies by market cap. It also caused a whirlwind of imitators.

Fans of the popular pup-based coin range from Snoop Dogg to the Dogefather himself, Elon Musk. These celebrity figures and the masses of the mainstream rode the Dogecoin rocket to success. Robinhood investors rejoiced; meme-coins went viral on TikTok.

Related Reading | Recapping 2021 Memecoin Mania: Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, & More

The ride itself has been rather bumpy as of late due to the increasingly risky macro environment. However, a possible chart pattern might suggest that it is time to abandon ship and send your DOGE back to the pound (or the dollar).

Is this a descending triangle in Dogecoin? | Source: DOGEUSD on TradingView.com

The Dangerous Descending Triangle In Dogecoin

Dogecoin is exhibiting a possible descending triangle chart pattern, pictured above. For comparison, the primary phase of the Bitcoin bear market is depicted side by side with DOGEUSD. A similar-sized drop would take Dogecoin back to around between five to ten cents per coin or lower.

Descending triangles have a bearish tendency to break down below support, but that doesn’t necessarily mean certain doom for DOGE.

Related Reading | SpaceX Dogecoin-Funded DOGE-1 Mission Set To Launch In Q1 2022

In the comparison, Bitcoin fell another 50% to its eventual bear market bottom. After the final breakdown of the triangle, the bottom was in and the cycle began anew.

While things could turn worse for Dogecoin investors – especially those who bought near the peak – it might also not be very long until the market reverses if the range lower can be defended.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

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70% Of Bitcoin Supply Is In Profit – Why Bulls Need To Defend This Level

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70% Of Bitcoin Supply Is In Profit - Why Bulls Need To Defend This Level

On-chain data shows about 70% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently in profit, a level that has historically been important for bulls.

Around 30% Of Total Bitcoin Supply Is Now Underwater

As per the latest weekly report from Glassnode, the percentage of BTC supply in profit has now fallen off to just 70%.

The “percent of supply in profit” is an indicator that measures the percentage of the total Bitcoin supply that’s currently in the green.

When the value of this metric increases, it means more coins have started to get into profit. This leads to holders becoming more probable to sell their coins in order to harvest their gains.

At very high values of the indicator (more than 95%), the price of Bitcoin has usually approached a top as profits are realized.

On the other hand, when the metric moves down, it means more coins are entering into the red. Below certain low levels, investors may capitulate to cut their losses. However, when more than 50% of the supply is underwater, bottoms have historically formed.

Related Reading | Green Energy: In NY, Bitcoin Mining Saved The Oldest Working Hydroelectric Plant

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the value of the Bitcoin supply in profit over the last couple of years:

Looks like the value of the indicator has declined recently | Source: The Glassnode Week Onchain - Week 3, 2022

As you can see in the above graph, the metric has been falling down since a few months now. And so at the moment, only around 70% of the Bitcoin supply is in profit.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Miners Show Strong Accumulation As Their Inventories Spike Up

The 70% level seems to have been significant historically as bulls had to defend it twice in the past two years. The first instance was shortly after the COVID crash, between May 2020 to July 2020.

The other instance was 2021’s mini-bear period between May and July. The bulls came out on top during both the periods after a while of sideways movement.

The report notes that the medium-term outlook of the price likely depends on how the market responds to the level this time. If more of the supply enters underwater, those in the red may finally capitulate.

On the other hand, a bullish reversal can bring more Bitcoin into profit and prevent these holders from selling here.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $42k, up 0.5% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 8% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of BTC over the last five days.

Bitcoin Price Chart

BTC's price has once again stumbled down in the past few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com
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The NFT Investor’s Worst Nightmare: IRS Craves For A Crackdown

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NFT

Last year, when the NFT Everydays: The First 5,000 Days by Beeple sold at Christie’s for $69.3 million, it catapulted the non-fungible token’s market into the mainstream. A large number of people have invested billions in this industry and the boom is not stopping.

Recently, NewsBTC reported an aggressive surge in the NFT trading volume this year despite the falling crypto market. A report by Dappradar showed that in the first ten days of January, NFT trading generated around $11.9 billion.

Our previous report quotes Mason Nystrom, a senior research analyst at Messari, who alleged that “The cryptomarkets are fairly correlated – the market tends to rise and fall with Bitcoin. This has made it surprisingly interesting over the recent downturn as the NFT market has continued to increase in volumes.”

However, the rapid rise of the NFT space has not moved the officials of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to shed some light on the taxation parameters for the assets.

Even taxation experts are confused on the matter and can only speculate about the possible outcomes. As a large share of NFT traffic comes from the younger generations, are users prepared for tax filing season? The IRS is gazing at future penalties.

Related Reading | January Proves Turbulent For Investors But NFT And GameFi Seems To Be Eating Good

The IRS Gears Up

In November 2021, the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill was signed into law by President Joe Biden as a key part of his economic agenda, proposing large investments in the country’s infrastructure. The funding is to come from a few sources involving tax changes.

Watching over the cryptocurrency industry’s boom, the infrastructure bill directly targets its investors, but they fail to educate digital assets users on all the information they need to report. The unawareness could result in possible felony convictions for tax evasion.

However, the law updates the definition of the terms “broker” and “digital assets”, and clarifies that users with regular transactions or any crypto transaction over $10,000 must report that data to the IRS. In this case, taxation works for digital assets in a similar way it does for capital gains relative to stock and bond trades.

However, non-fungible tokens are not close to being as clearly defined by the law as other digital assets, so there is a lot of room left for interpretation. That’s a dangerous game for investors, but the IRS investigators seem eager for cases to surge soon and are ready to crackdown on the market. They might see billions of dollars coming from the NFT gains tax bills.

Are NFT Investors Evading Taxes?

The murky confusion originates because it is not clear whether NFTs are taxable as art collectibles or not. It is fundamental to be aware of this because most crypto assets and stocks have a long-term capital-gains rate up to 20%, but for art collectibles, it’s 28%. And if NFTs are to be considered as ordinary income, the rate could go as high as 37%.

Michael Desmond, the former chief counsel at the IRS who is now a partner at Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, commented for Bloomberg that the rising NFT trading traffic might force the IRS to clarify the rules, “but it may begin auditing people first.”

The best-case scenario is gearing up and going through large amounts of paperwork, like the NFT investor Adam Hollander did, spending 50 hours checking months’ worth of transactions. He stated that “It’s an absolute nightmare,” and added that “There are people who aren’t going to be willing to do what I’m doing.”

And that nightmare really is the best-case scenario compared to tax evasion penalties.

Related Reading | Sports NFT Marketplace Lympo Suffers An $18.7 Million Hack

Total crypto market cap at $1,9 trillion in the daily chart | Source: TradingView.com
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