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5 fixes for the Patriots in 2022: No. 2 — How Jonnu Smith or Nelson Agholor can rebound

The bulk of the Patriots’ rebuild is over. Now, the hardest work begins.
After making the postseason again, the Pats are working to grow from playoff team to title contender, the most difficult leap across pro sports. Because of their record splurge in free agency last year, most of the 2021 team should carry over into 2022. Therefore, how the Patriots manage the margins of their roster in the coming months should determine whether they make a leap next season.
Considering those stakes, the Herald is unveiling a daily offseason fix this week for the Patriots to elevate themselves back into contention.
No. 5: Create more cap flexibility
No. 4: Tweak the offense to better fit Mac Jones
No. 3: Refortify the cornerback position
No. 2: Get Jonnu Smith or Nelson Agholor to rebound
Last offseason, there was no runner-up for the Patriots’ most questionable deal in free agency.
It was Nelson Agholor’s contract, a huge drop-off and everyone else.
Coming off a career year in Las Vegas, Agholor inked a two-year, $22 million deal with $16 million guaranteed. The Patriots paid him after an outlier season, where he thrived in a distinctly different offense than their own. Prior to his Sin City stay, Agholor completed a five-season roller coaster in Philadelphia on a downturn that made his first dip into free agency feel like a dive into the shallow end.
Agholor settled for a prove-it offer from the Raiders worth barely a million bucks. Unsurprisingly, one year and one contract after he broke out, Agholor’s production reverted to his per-season averages in Philly.
But now his contract has a competitor for most questionable: Jonnu Smith’s. Smith signed for four years and $50 million last March, a clear overpay mollified by the fact the Patriots desperately needed tight ends, and he represented a rare two-way talent entering his prime. Smith was not only a tight end, but a chess piece who could catch, run and block at a high level, despite never recording a single 500-yard season in Tennessee.
Fast forward, and Smith failed to crack 300 yards and score more than a single touchdown in his debut season with the Pats. Now, the front office has barely $10 million to patch holes on the defense and upgrade the weapons around Mac Jones this offseason (pending further moves). Considering that cap space, the most cost-effective way to help Jones will be to sharpen the tools around him, namely the underperforming Agholor and Smith.
In fact, even just one will do. Of all their personnel groupings last season, the Pats ran and passed most efficiently from 11 personnel (three wide receivers, one tight end and one running back), though the gaps were slim. So if Agholor’s play can be restored to a Las Vegas level, 11 personnel can again carry the offense by itself, with two-back and two-tight end sets serving as effective changeups.
If Smith can become the player he was projected to be last March, the Patriots will power their offense with two-tight end personnel a year late, unlocking all types of valued versatility. Out wide, their two receivers could be any combination of Agholor, Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne and/or a newcomer, while the other two provide depth.
So which player’s rebound is more likely, and how can the Patriots coax more out of Agholor and Smith?
5 fixes for the Patriots in 2022: No. 4 — Mold the offense around Mac Jones
With Agholor, positive regression may be on the horizon without much tweaking. Last year, the Patriots smartly deployed Agholor likely the Raiders did, basically stapling him outside the numbers and asking him to run deep.
After taking 55.4% of his snaps in the slot during his last Eagles season, Agholor’s slot snaps fell to 26% in Las Vegas and a mere 7.2% last year. As a Raider, Agholor’s average downfield depth when targeted jumped to 15.5 yards, the fifth-highest mark in the NFL and almost four yards more compared to his final Philly season. In New England, Agholor’s average target depth hit 13.4 yards, good for ninth-deepest in the league.
The problem was Jones didn’t deliver the long ball quite like Derek Carr did as the league’s sixth-best passer by quarterback rating in 2020. Jones was one of the NFL’s worst deep passers last season by most metrics and particularly down the stretch. On passes attempted 15-plus yards downfield, Agholor was the only Patriot to see a catchable ball on fewer than half his targets, per Sports Info. Solutions; a sign of bad luck. (Of those nine catchable balls, he caught seven.)
Agholor can also improve against man coverage. He posted the third-lowest passer rating when targeted and second-lowest yards per route run average among Patriots who ran at least 20 routes versus man-to-man. This partly explains how Buffalo, a zone-based defense, felt comfortable manning up the Patriots in two late-season wins.
Otherwise, Agholor’s underlying numbers — including average cushion, average separation, broken tackle rate and drop rate — either remained steady or actually improved from 2020.
So assuming his chemistry with Jones builds over a second season, and Jones levels up himself in Year 2, Agholor’s production should rise. Because for one-dimensional deep threats, the difference between a poor and average season is often two or three completed long balls, and the jump from average to good a few more. Expecting Agholor to catch three or four extra go routes or posts or corners is perfectly reasonable, even if that may depend entirely on his quarterback.
5 fixes for the Patriots in 2022: No. 5 — Create more cap flexibility
As for Smith, defeating man coverage is the first place to start. He dominated 1-on-1s during training camp and in Tennessee, where he scored a touchdown on almost one-third of his catches versus man-to-man over his last three seasons. Yet in 2021, Smith was the Patriots’ least efficient receiver versus man coverage on a per-route basis, according to Sports Info. Solutions.
An early-season hip injury could explain some of his lost explosion, though Smith wasn’t listed on a single injury report after the team’s December bye week. He also finished with two catches over that five-game stretch, having been relegated to run-blocking duties. Aside from taking a few more carries and a back seat to Hunter Henry as the team’s preferred pass-catching tight end, Smith’s usage in New England mostly mirrored how the Titans weaponized him.
His routes, pre-snap alignment and percentage of blocking snaps all fell in the same range, yet his production disappeared. When Smith took off as a receiver, he was targeted on more than 30% of those snaps, the highest percentage in the league among tight ends, according to Player Profiler. So while his total targets, receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns decreased, his opportunity on a per-play basis remained strong.
Smith simply failed to capitalize.
Looking ahead, he must recover gains in every aspect of his game to earn more snaps, particularly after taking seven penalties and producing the worst run-blocking grade of his career at PFF.
Counting on Smith to make a leap based on some untapped potential entering his sixth season feels too optimistic. But the player he became in Tennessee is within reach, and a player who can certainly help drive winning.
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Who’s the best fit for Orlando Magic with No. 1 in 2022 draft?

It didn’t take long for the Orlando Magic’s draft lottery celebration to turn into speculation.
Moments after the Magic won the draft lottery Tuesday in Chicago, questions quickly started to surround Orlando, the winner of the No. 1 pick in the June 23 NBA draft.
What will be the Magic’s approach to having the top pick?
Will their philosophy during the scouting combine and predraft machinations change?
Are they drafting based on need?
Jeff Weltman, president of basketball operations, made it clear they’re not going into the process looking to draft based off need.
“We’re at the stage right now where we’re not a need-based team,” Weltman said. “We’re looking for talent, character and guys who fit the way we want to play and the way we want to grow the team.”
Coach Jamahl Mosley echoed Weltman.
“It’s constantly adding the high basketball IQ, the competitiveness, the toughness, the fighter — the guy that’s willing to come in and work with this group of guys,” Mosley said. “Jeff and those guys do a phenomenal job of evaluating the talent, getting to know these guys over time and then we’ll go from there.”
Orlando has another month to decide what they’ll do with the No. 1 pick. Here are the three best fits for the Magic:
1. Jabari Smith (Auburn)
Height: 6-foot-10 | Weight: 220 pounds | Age: 19
Smith’s best offensive skill — shooting — is an area the Magic can improve.
Orlando’s 33.1% 3-point percentage during 2021-22 was the league’s third-worst mark and it’s been a bottom-five shooting team the past two seasons.
Taking Smith, who shot 42% from beyond the arc on 5.5 attempts during his lone season with the Tigers, would instantly help make life easier for the Magic’s playmakers in the halfcourt.
Smith isn’t just dangerous in spot-up situations. At 6-foot-10 with a high release point, he can shoot over defenders with ease from multiple areas of the floor without needing to create much of an advantage.
His size, length and athleticism make him a disruptive perimeter defender and someone who doesn’t have trouble switching across multiple positions.
Because of his shaky ballhandling and inconsistent interior scoring, there are concerns about whether Smith will develop into the go-to scorer/creator the Magic need. But Smith would be the cleanest fit in what Orlando already has started to build with its roster.
2. Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga)
Height: 7 feet | Weight: 195 pounds | Age: 20
Holmgren is arguably the most polarizing top college player in this year’s draft.
His combination of rim protection (3.7 blocks with the Bulldogs), handles, touch near the rim, basketball IQ and floor-spacing ability for his size (7 feet) make him one of the more distinctive prospects in a while.
Holmgren’s size, length and versatility — he’s light enough on his feet to guard on the perimeter — is a profile Orlando has shown an affinity for in previous drafts.
The Magic started two-big lineups with Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba, and Holmgren could be a seamless fit next to Carter in the frontcourt so they can maintain rim protection at all times, a core principle of Mosley’s defensive system.
There are significant concerns about how effective Holmgren can be in the post on both ends of the floor and as a finisher at the rim because of his skinny frame for his height. Holmgren’s outside jumper (39% on 3s with Gonzaga) would have to be consistent for him to be an offensive threat.
Holmgren’s potential is evident and he fits into what the Magic already have, but there are questions of whether he’ll maximize his skillset.
3. Paolo Banchero (Duke)
Height: 6-foot-10 | Weight: 250 | Age: 19
Banchero’s skillset coming out of Duke suggests he can be a go-to option at the next level.
With the Blue Devils, Banchero thrived in creating opportunities for himself and others off the dribble. He’s a versatile scorer who finished well around the rim because of his strength, footwork and touch.
Banchero is one of the better-passing top prospects (3.2 assists as a forward) who can serve as an offensive hub, which the Magic could use after having the league’s second-worst offensive rating in 2021-22.
His outside shooting (33.8% from beyond the arc) is an area he’ll need to improve.
Banchero also wasn’t consistently locked in as a defender at Duke and it’s not clear how switchable he’ll be at the next level.
This article first appeared on OrlandoSentinel.com. Email Khobi Price at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @khobi_price.
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Rookie Christopher Morel’s special moment pumps life into the Chicago Cubs’ rebuild plan: ‘It’s so cool’

If the Chicago Cubs could bottle moments like Tuesday night at Wrigley Field, they wouldn’t have to worry so much about people calling this a rebuild.
Christopher Morel’s bat-flipping celebration after homering in his first major-league at-bat, combined with Brandon Hughes’ five strikeouts in 1 ⅔ innings in his big-league debut, provided Cubs fans with hope the future might be brighter than imagined.
That’s what an infusion of youth can do.
“It just brings that energy, that new energy,” pitcher Kyle Hendricks said before Wednesday’s series finale against the Pittsburgh Pirates. “It’s having a good balance of both. We have so many good veteran guys around here now that bring the right energy from that side and that aspect.
“But seeing these young guys come up, kind of a deer-in-the-headlights (look) a little bit. They don’t know what to expect. They just go out and play and play so wholeheartedly and so natural. It’s just fun to see all that emotion come out of them.”
Morel was in the starting lineup at third base Wednesday, still flying from the electric moment in the eighth inning Tuesday. The 22-year-old call-up from Double-A Tennessee knew when he stepped up that Willson Contreras had homered in his first at-bat in 2016.
“I saw it on the scoreboard and I said to him, ‘Hey, I’m going to make my first at-bat a home run just like you,’ ” Morel said.
The moment the ball left the bat, Contreras jumped out of the dugout like the Cubs had won the pennant. It was an instant flashback to June 19, 2016, at Wrigley, when he homered in his first major-league at-bat on Father’s Day against the Pirates.
“It was amazing,” Contreras recalled Wednesday. “A good introduction for me in the big leagues.”
Justin Steele chimed in, recalling watching the shot six years ago when he pitched for Class A South Bend.
“Pretty sure me and Adbert (Alzolay) watched that home run together,” Steele told Contreras.
Morel’s homer sparked a wild reaction from the crowd at Wrigley, which already was on its feet for the 3-2 pitch. He performed a semi-moonwalk out of the box while flipping his bat for what he insisted was the first time in his career.
Really? His first-ever bat flip?
“Like this, yes,” he said. “Last year I hit a walk-off and I flipped my bat, but not like this.”
Morel became the ninth Cub to homer in his first major-league at-bat and the first since Contreras.
“I wasn’t thinking about it until it happened,” Hendricks said of the coincidence. “(Contreras) did it on the first pitch, of course. But we thought about it right away, especially Willson running out there giving him a hug. It was just an awesome, awesome moment for him. Going out there and doing that, it’s so cool to see things like that happen.”
Contreras said he was waiting for Morel to “do something positive, either a blooper or a base hit.”
Morel did something even better.
“Hitting a home run is pretty good,” Contreras said. “Almost nobody can do that in the big leagues.”
Manager David Ross called it a moment Cubs fans will always remember and said he and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy had “swelling” in their eyes.
“That’s what stories are made of, and I’ll never forget that,” Ross said. “It reminded me of Willson’s first at-bat, that emotion. And then I started laughing when he nearly missed first base, like Mark McGwire (after breaking the home run record).”
The Cubs were riding a wave entering Wednesday night’s game, with a four-game winning streak and Marcus Stroman scheduled to return to the mound Thursday after his COVID-19-related IL stint. Closer David Robertson was cleared to return from his COVID-related absence Wednesday.
Team President Jed Hoyer doesn’t want his plan labeled a “rebuild,” a term the Cubs embraced a decade ago before it became associated with another word — tanking.
But when kids such as Morel, Steele, Hughes and Keegan Thompson enjoy some success, “rebuild” doesn’t sound quite as offensive. Most Cubs fans, in fact, would prefer to watch unproven 22-year-olds develop at Wrigley than former prospects signed on the cheap or 30-something pitchers who can be moved at the trade deadline.
“We have a lot of good, young talent, and they are hungry,” Contreras said. “They bring a lot of positive energy around the clubhouse, which is always good to have.”
Hendricks and Contreras helped establish the winning culture on the North Side in their early years, and both said they hope the younger players understand they’re here to keep that culture alive.
“We’re trying to hold on to that,” Hendricks said. “And everybody that comes into this environment, we hope that’s what they feel.”
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Annabelle De St. Maurice: We’re losing the fight against superbugs, but there’s still hope

As parents, we inherently want to protect our children. We tell them stories with happy endings and reassure them that there aren’t monsters hiding under the bed.
But there’s an enemy living among us that poses a fatal threat to kids and adults alike — and we’re simply not doing enough to stop it.
These enemies are “superbugs” — bacteria and fungi that are resistant to antibiotics and other medications. All microbes, from everyday bacteria to killer superbugs, are constantly evolving. And paradoxically, exposing microbes to antimicrobials — whether a common antibiotic for strep throat or a potent antifungal treatment given in the hospital — can make them stronger in the long run.
While most of the microbes die when treated, the ones that survive can reproduce. These new generations of microbes can build up resistance to certain antimicrobials, rendering some medications less effective or ineffective over time.
Unfortunately, this natural evolutionary process is speeding up for several reasons. We greatly overuse antibiotics in patients with viruses, like the flu, common colds and bronchitis — without benefit. And modern medical care has increased the demand for antibiotics. Advances in cancer care, organ transplants and surgeries such as hip and knee replacements have become much more common. These procedures can extend and improve life, but patients often require antimicrobials because they are at high risk of developing infections.
Bacteria are mutating at a speed that outpaces the development of antibiotics. Penicillin was discovered in 1941, but it wasn’t until 1967 that penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumococcus was first identified. By contrast, consider an antibiotic for multidrug-resistant bacteria released in 2015, called ceftazidime-avibactam. That same year a strain of bacteria emerged that was resistant to this new antibiotic.
Drug-resistant pathogens are one of the greatest healthcare threats of our time — for everyone, everywhere, including adults and children. More than 1.2 million people died worldwide from antibiotic-resistant infections in 2019 alone. Multidrug-resistant infections are on the rise in kids. More of these infections originate outside of our hospitals and within our communities.
Without effective antibiotics, run-of-the-mill pneumonia or skin infections can become life-threatening.
COVID-19 exacerbated the situation. Amid the widespread uncertainty and limited treatment options at the beginning of the pandemic, doctors often used antibiotics to treat COVID-19 patients as they tried to help them. Patients may also have been given antibiotics in instances in which it was difficult to distinguish between bacterial pneumonia, which requires antibiotics, and COVID-19.
Hospital stewardship programs — which manage the careful and optimal use of antimicrobial treatments — also had to redirect their limited resources away from antibiotic use to focus on the complex administration of COVID-19 therapeutics. And severely ill patients on ventilators were at a higher risk of contracting secondary infections, especially while their immune system was weakened.
These factors led to an increase in drug-resistant infections acquired in hospitals during the pandemic. Drug-resistant staph infections, MRSA, jumped 34% for hospitalized patients in the last quarter of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019.
Prior to COVID-19, we made initial progress in the fight against antimicrobial resistance. In 2014, California was the first state to pass a law requiring antimicrobial stewardship programs in hospitals. In 2019, Medicare began requiring antibiotic stewardship programs.
Some modest federal investments have also been made in antimicrobial research and development, but not enough to generate the pipeline patients need. We must increase support for antimicrobial stewardship practices, which were under-resourced even before the pandemic. Teaching practitioners to safely use and monitor antimicrobial treatments is a significant step.
We also need to develop novel antimicrobial medicines capable of defeating the superbugs that have grown resistant to previous generations of treatments. But market incentives are misaligned. Because doctors prudently limit their use of antimicrobials to avoid further resistance, there isn’t high demand to sustain the development of new products, which take years of research and billions of dollars in investments.
As a result, many large biopharmaceutical companies have stopped antimicrobial research entirely. And many smaller startups have had success at first, only to face bankruptcy. That’s part of the reason why there have been few new classes of antibiotics developed in the last 35 years.
This is a textbook case of a market failure, but government intervention can help realign market incentives.
The PASTEUR Act is a bipartisan bill in Congress that would establish a payment model for critically needed antimicrobials.
Currently, the government pays manufacturers based on the volume of drugs sold. But under PASTEUR, the government would enter into contracts with manufacturers and pay a predetermined amount for access to their novel antimicrobials — allowing scientists to innovate new treatments without fear of an insufficient return on investment due to low sales volumes.
Essentially, the bill would switch the government from a “pay-per-use” model for antimicrobials to a subscription-style model that pays for the value antimicrobials bring to society. By delinking payments to antimicrobial makers from sales volumes, the measure would stimulate investment in new antibiotics.
The bill would also provide resources to strengthen hospital antimicrobial stewardship programs, which help clinicians use antimicrobials prudently and help the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention closely monitor resistance. Hospitals should join public health leaders in supporting this legislation and invest more of their resources in their antimicrobial stewardship programs.
Unfortunately, superbugs aren’t an easy enemy to defeat. We need to be fighting them more vigorously to ensure that they don’t get around our best defenses.
Annabelle de St. Maurice is an associate professor of pediatric infectious diseases at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, and head of pediatric infection control and co-chief infection prevention officer at UCLA Health. She wrote this for the Los Angeles Times.
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