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Jamelle Bouie: Republican candidates and the arithmetic of MAGA

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Jamelle Bouie: Republican Candidates And The Arithmetic Of Maga
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It’s obvious. Glenn Youngkin, the Republican governor of Virginia, wants to be president.

Within months of taking office, Youngkin had already established two political organizations, Spirit of Virginia and America’s Spirit, meant to raise his profile in national Republican politics with donations and assistance to candidates both in his home state and across the country. In July, he met privately with major conservative donors in New York City, underlining the sense that his ambitions run larger than his term in Richmond.

Youngkin is on a tour of the country, speaking and raising money for Republican candidates in key presidential swing states. And as he crisscrosses the United States in support of the Republican Party, Youngkin is neither avoiding Donald Trump nor scorning his acolytes; he’s embracing them.

In Nevada last week, Youngkin stumped for Joe Lombardo, the Trump-backed Republican nominee for governor who acknowledges that President Joe Biden won the election but says he is worried about the “sanctity of the voting system.” In Michigan, Youngkin stumped for Tudor Dixon, the Trump-backed Republican nominee for governor who has repeatedly challenged the integrity of the 2020 presidential election. And later this month, in Arizona, Youngkin will stump for Kari Lake, the Trump-backed Republican nominee for governor who accused Democrats of fraud in the state and says that, unlike Gov. Doug Ducey, she “would not have certified” the 2020 election results.

Whether Youngkin agrees with any of this himself is an open question. In the 2021 Virginia Republican primary, the former private equity executive flirted with election denialism but never fully committed. What matters, for our purposes, is that Youngkin believes he needs to cater to and actually support election questioners and deniers to have a shot at leading the Republican Party.

You can sense, in conversations about the present and future of the Republican Party, a hope that there is some way to force the party off its current, anti-democratic path. You could see it in the outrage over Democratic Party “meddling” in Republican primaries. As conservative columnist Henry Olsen wrote for The Washington Post in July, “True friends of democracy would seek to build new alliances that cross old partisan boundaries.”

What Youngkin — a more polished and ostensibly moderate Republican politician — aptly demonstrates is that this is false. The issue is that Republican voters want MAGA candidates, and ambitious Republicans see no path to power that doesn’t treat election deniers and their supporters as partners in arms.

There is an analogy to make here to the midcentury Democratic Party, which was torn between a liberal, Northern, pro-civil rights faction and a reactionary, Southern, segregationist faction. The analogy is useful, not because the outcome of the struggle is instructive in this case, but because the reason the liberal faction prevailed helps illustrate why anti-MAGA Republicans are fighting a losing battle.

In 1948, the mayor of Minneapolis — 37-year-old Hubert Humphrey — called on the hundreds of delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia to add a strong civil rights plank to the party’s national platform. “To those who say we are rushing this issue of civil rights,” Humphrey said, “I say to them we are 172 years late.”

“The time has arrived for the Democratic Party to get out of the shadow of states’ rights and walk forthrightly into the bright sunshine of human rights,” Humphrey added.

As historian Michael Kazin notes in “What it Took to Win: A History of the Democratic Party,” both “the speech and the ebullient, and quite spontaneous, floor demonstration that followed helped convince a majority of delegates — and President Truman, reluctantly — to include the civil rights pledge in the platform.”

But there were dissenters. A small number of Southern delegates left the convention in protest. Calling themselves the States’ Rights Democratic Party, they organized a challenge to Harry S. Truman with Gov. Strom Thurmond of South Carolina at the top of their ticket.

These “Dixiecrats” were anti-civil rights and, for good measure, anti-labor. “We stand for the segregation of the races and the racial integrity of each race, the constitutional right to choose one’s associates; to accept private employment without governmental interference, and to earn one’s living in any lawful way,” reads the States’ Rights Democratic platform, unanimously adopted at their convention in Oklahoma City the next month. We favor, they continued, “home-rule, local self-government and a minimum of interference with individual rights.”

Of course, this meant the maintenance of Jim Crow, the subversion of the constitutional guarantees embedded in the 14th and 15th amendments, and the continued domination of Black Americans by a tyrannical planter-industrial elite.

From its inception in the late 1820s as the movement to elect Andrew Jackson president, the Democratic Party relied on the Solid South to win national elections. Now it had a choice. Democrats could reject their new civil rights plank, accommodate the Dixiecrats and fight with a unified front against a hungry and energetic Republican Party, shut out of power since Herbert Hoover’s defeat in 1932. Or they could scorn the so-called States’ Rights Democrats and run as a liberal party committed to equal rights and opportunity for all Americans.

They chose the latter and changed American politics forever. And while much of this choice was born of sincere belief, we also should not ignore the powerful force of demographic change.

From 1915 to 1965, more than 6 million Black Americans left their homes in the agrarian South to settle in the cities of the industrial North, from New York and Chicago to Philadelphia and Detroit and beyond.

Their arrival marked the beginning of a tectonic shift in American political life. “The difference in laws between the North and the South created a political coming-of-age for Black migrants,” political scientist Keneshia N. Grant writes in “The Great Migration and the Democratic Party: Black Voters and the Realignment of American Politics in the 20th Century.” “Seeing political participation as a badge of honor and hallmark of success in northern life, migrants registered to vote in large numbers. Northern parties and candidates worked to gain Black support through their election campaigns, and the parties expected Black voters to turn out to vote for their nominees on Election Day.”

For a Democratic Party whose national fortunes rested on control of urban machines, Black voters could mean the difference between four years in power and four years in the wilderness. With the rise of Franklin Roosevelt, who won an appreciable share of the Black vote in the 1932 presidential election, Northern Democratic politicians began to pay real attention to the interests of Black Americans in cities across the region.

By 1948, most Black Americans who could vote were reliable partners in the New Deal coalition, which gave liberals in the Democratic Party some of the political space they needed to buck Jim Crow. Yes, the Dixiecrats would withdraw their support. But for every white vote Truman might lose in Alabama and Mississippi, there was a Black vote he might gain in Ohio and California, the two states that ultimately gave him his victory over the fearsome former prosecutor (and New York governor) Thomas Dewey.

Not only did the Dixiecrat rebellion fail, it demonstrated without the shadow of a doubt that Democrats could win national elections without the Solid South. The segregationists were weaker than they looked, and over the next 20 years the Democratic Party would cast them aside. (And even then, with the Dixiecrat exodus, Truman still won most of the states of the former Confederacy.)

There is no equivalent to northern Black voters in the Trumpified Republican Party. Put differently, there is no large and pivotal group of Republicans who can exert cross-pressure on MAGA voters. Instead, the further the Republican Party goes down the rabbit hole of “stop the steal” and other conspiracy theories, the more it loses voters who could serve to apply that pressure.

In a normal, more majoritarian political system, this dynamic would eventually fix the issue of the MAGA Republican Party. Parties want to win, and they will almost always shift gears when it’s clear they can’t with their existing platform, positions and leadership.

The problem is that the American political system, in its current configuration, gives much of its power to the party with the most supporters in all the right places. Republicans may have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections, but key features in the system — equal state representation in the Senate, malapportionment in the House of Representatives and winner-take-all distribution of votes in the Electoral College (Nebraska and Maine notwithstanding) — gives them a powerful advantage on the playing field of national politics.

To put it in simple terms, Biden won the national popular vote by 7 million ballots in the 2020 presidential election but, if not for roughly 120,000 votes across four states — Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Trump would still be president.

Which is all to say that someone like Youngkin is only doing what makes sense. To make MAGA politics weak among Republican politicians, you have to make MAGA voters irrelevant in national elections. But that will take a different political system — or a vastly different political landscape — than the one we have now.

 

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Two men sentenced to life in prison for double shooting at RTD bus stop

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Two Men Sentenced To Life In Prison For Double Shooting At Rtd Bus Stop
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DENVER — Two men were sentenced to life in prison on Wednesday in connection with a 2021 double shooting at an RTD bus stop in Denver.

After being found guilty of two counts of first degree murder and one count of attempted first degree murder, Elias Chavez and Tlaloc Chavez were sentenced to two consecutive life sentences without the possibility of parole for the two counts of murder, with 48 additional sentences. one-year sentence for the attempted murder charge.

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Dolphins‘ Tua Tagovailoa expected to play against Bengals, along with Terron Armstead, Jaylen Waddle

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Dolphins‘ Tua Tagovailoa Expected To Play Against Bengals, Along With Terron Armstead, Jaylen Waddle
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It was leaning in this direction as the short week progressed for the Miami Dolphins. Now, it is reportedly indeed happening.

Tagovailoa, officially listed as questionable for Miami entering Thursday for the night game in Cincinnati, is ready to go and expected to play against the Bengals, along with wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and left tackle Terron Armstead, according to NFL Network.

Tagovailoa was recovering from back and ankle injuries in the three days between Sunday’s 21-19 win over the Buffalo Bills and Thursday as Dolphins players rested on Monday and held walkthroughs on Tuesday in Miami and Wednesday in Cincinnati.

A head injury was originally thought to be the issue for Tagovailoa after he was knocked back on a late hit by Bills linebacker Matt Milano in the second quarter of Sunday’s game. Banging the back of his head on the turf in a whiplash effect, Tagovailoa stumbled after getting up.

He was escorted to the locker room after getting checked on the field, and Tagovailoa returned for the second half after clearing concussion protocol. Finishing 13 of 18 for 186 yards and a touchdown in the win, both Tagovailoa and coach Mike McDaniel said it was not a head injury, as the team announced during the game, but actually a back injury that originated on an earlier quarterback sneak and was exacerbated by Milano’s push that landed Tagovailoa on his back. The ankle aspect of Tagovailoa’s injury concern was learned on Monday, but Tagovailoa said Tuesday the back remained the greater issue.

He said what he was feeling in his back was affecting every twist and turn he needs to make to function as a quarterback, whether it’s handoffs, pitches or forward passes.

Nonetheless, Tagovailoa responded, “that’s the plan,” when asked on Tuesday if he expects to play. McDaniel expressed similar optimism from conversations he had with the quarterback.

Tagovailoa’s availability means he will get to face Bengals signal-caller Joe Burrow. The two third-year quarterbacks face off for the first time in the NFL and first since their epic college showdown between Alabama and LSU in 2019. Burrow was out injured when the Bengals and Dolphins met in their rookie seasons.

Armstead is set to start again while nursing a toe injury in the opener against the New England Patriots. Waddle popped up on the injury report on the short week, dealing with a groin injury.

Paramount among Miami’s four other players entering the prime-time game with questionable designations is cornerback Xavien Howard‘s status due to groin and glute ailments. The Dolphins also have wide receiver Cedrick Wilson Jr. (ribs/toe), safety Brandon Jones (chest) and defensive tackle Raekwon Davis (knee) as questionable on Thursday.

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NFL Week 4 Thursday Bettors Guide: Too many Tua Tagovailoa questions

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Nfl Week 4 Thursday Bettors Guide: Too Many Tua Tagovailoa Questions
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DOLPHINS at BENGALS

8:15 p.m., Bengals by 3 1/2, 47

HANK’S HONEYS: The Dolphins figure to be a bit too full of themselves after defeating the shorthanded Bills in that incredible game last week. They probably could use a few more days to get over it, and, more importantly to give Tua Tagovailoa more time to nurse his back injury. If Tua can’t go or is limited, there isn’t a lot of balance in what has been an exclusively big-play offense. Miami’s backs are averaging only 3.3 yards per carry.

The Bengals finally got off the schneid against the Jets, giving Joe Burrow the time he needed to play a clean game. Miami has only six sacks on the season and will not be able to exploit Cincy’s pass protection as the Steelers and Cowboys did. With the Fins allowing opposing QBs to complete 68% of their passes, Burrow has enough weapons around him to keep the chains moving and wear down a Dolphin defense that was on the field for over 40 minutes four days earlier. It would be wise to hold off on betting the total until Tagovailoa’s status is ascertained. If he’s out, lean toward the under.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bengals and the under.

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Yankees’ Aaron Judge Gives His Mom A Baseball Record: ‘She’s Been With Me Through It All’

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Yankees' Aaron Judge Gives His Mom A Baseball Record: 'She'S Been With Me Through It All'
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Aaron Judge finally tied Roger Maris’ home run on Wednesday night and managed to return the ball to his mother, Patty.

Patty was with Roger Maris Jr. throughout the home run chase waiting for her son to finally hit the home run that tied the game. Judge did it in the middle of a 3-3 game and put the New York Yankees above the Toronto Blue Jays. New York would win the game 8-3.

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New York Yankees No. 99 Aaron Judge stands with his mother, Patty, after beating the Toronto Blue Jays and tying Roger Maris AL’s home run record at Rogers Center on Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2022 in Toronto.
(Photos by Thomas Skrlj/MLB via Getty Images)

According to MLB.com, Yankees reliever Zack Britton has negotiated a trade for baseball. He was picked up first by Blue Jays pitching coach Matt Buschmann and given to reliever Jordan Romano.

“She’s been with me through it all,” Judge said. “From the days of Little League, getting ready for school, taking me to my first practices and games, being there for my first professional game, my debut and now having the chance to be here for this – c It’s something special, and we’re not done yet.”

ROGER MARIS JR. MLB BLASTS, SAYS AARON JUDGE POTENTIAL 62ND HOME RUN SHOULD BE SINGLE-SEASON RECORD

Maris Jr. and Patty Judge hugged after the home run and met the outfielder after the game was over.

New York Yankees No. 99 Aaron Judge Hugs His Mother, Patty, After Defeating The Toronto Blue Jays And Tying Roger Maris Al's Home Run Record At Rogers Center On Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2022 In Toronto.

New York Yankees No. 99 Aaron Judge hugs his mother, Patty, after defeating the Toronto Blue Jays and tying Roger Maris AL’s home run record at Rogers Center on Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2022 in Toronto.
(Photos by Thomas Skrlj/MLB via Getty Images)

“To sit at 60 for a while there with ‘The Babe’ was nice. To have the chance to sit at 61 now with another Yankee right fielder who hit 61 homers, [won] MVP, world champions, that’s pretty cool,” he said.

Judge is the sixth player to hit at least 60 home runs in a season and is now aiming for the American League Triple Crown. He leads the American League in RBI (130) and batting average (.313).

The judge could pass Maris in future games and could even potentially surpass Sammy Sosa’s 63 home run mark set in 1999 and his 64 home run mark in 2001.

Aaron Judge, No. 99 Of The New York Yankees, Kisses His Mother.

Aaron Judge, No. 99 of the New York Yankees, kisses his mother.
(Photos by Thomas Skrlj/MLB via Getty Images)

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New York opens a series with the Baltimore Orioles on Friday.

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People trapped, 2.5M without power as Ian drenches Florida

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People Trapped, 2.5M Without Power As Ian Drenches Florida
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ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Hurricane Ian left a path of destruction in southwest Florida, trapping people in flooded homes, cutting off the only bridge to a barrier island, damaging the roof of a hospital intensive care unit and knocking out power to 2.5 million people as it dumped rain across the peninsula on Thursday.

One of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit the United States threatened catastrophic flooding around the state. Ian’s tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 415 miles, drenching much of Florida and the southeastern Atlantic coast.

Emergency crews sawed through toppled trees to reach people in flooded homes, but with no electricity and virtually no cell service, it was impossible for many people to call for help from the hardest hit coastal areas where the surge came in.

“Portable towers are on the way for cell service. Chances are your loved ones do not have ability to contact you,” said the sheriff’s office in Collier County, which includes Naples. “We can tell you as daylight reveals the aftermath, it’s going to be a hard day.”

In Lee County, which includes Fort Myers, just south of where Hurricane Ian made landfall, the sheriff’s Office posted a phone number family and friends can call for welfare checks, and said “If the line is busy, keep trying.”

The National Hurricane Center said Ian became a tropical storm over land early Thursday and was expected to regain near-hurricane strength after emerging over Atlantic waters near the Kennedy Space Center later in the day, with South Carolina in its sights for a second U.S. landfall.

A stretch of the Gulf Coast remained inundated by ocean water, pushed ashore by the massive storm. “Severe and life-threatening storm surge inundation of 8 to 10 feet above ground level along with destructive waves is ongoing along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor,” the Miami-based hurricane center said.

A chunk of the Sanibel Causeway fell into the sea, cutting off access to the barrier island where 6,300 people normally live. How many heeded mandatory evacuation orders was impossible to know in the storm’s immediate aftermath.

In Port Charlotte, the storm surge flooded a hospital’s emergency room even as fierce winds ripped away part of the roof from its intensive care unit, according to a doctor who works there.

Water gushed down onto the ICU, forcing them to evacuate their sickest patients — some on ventilators — to other floors, said Dr. Birgit Bodine of HCA Florida Fawcett Hospital. Staff members used towels and plastic bins to try to mop up the sodden mess.

The medium-sized hospital spans four floors, but patients crowded into two because of the damage, and more were expected with people injured from the storm needing help.

“As long as our patients do OK and nobody ends up dying or having a bad outcome, that’s what matters,” Bodine said.

Law enforcement officials in nearby Fort Myers received calls from people trapped in flooded homes or from worried relatives. Pleas were also posted on social media sites, some with video showing debris-covered water sloshing toward the eaves of their homes.

Brittany Hailer, a journalist in Pittsburgh, contacted rescuers about her mother in North Fort Myers, whose home was swamped by 5 feet (1.5 meters) of water.

“We don’t know when the water’s going to go down. We don’t know how they’re going to leave, their cars are totaled,” Hailer said. “Her only way out is on a boat.”

Hurricane Ian turned streets into rivers and blew down trees as it slammed into southwest Florida on Wednesday with 150 mph (241 kph) winds, pushing a wall of storm surge. Ian’s strength at landfall was Category 4, tying it for the fifth-strongest hurricane, when measured by wind speed, ever to strike the U.S.

Ian’s center came ashore more than 100 miles (160 kilometers) south of Tampa and St. Petersburg, sparing the densely populated Tampa Bay area from its first direct hit by a major hurricane since 1921.

Ian dropped to a tropical storm early Thursday over land, but was expected to intensify again once its center moves over the Atlantic Ocean and menace the South Carolina coast Friday at near-hurricane strength before moving inland.

At 5 a.m. Thursday, the storm was about 40 miles (70 km) southeast of Orlando and 35 miles (55 kilometers) southwest of Cape Canaveral, carrying maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 kph) and moving toward the cape at 8 mph (13 kmh), the center said.

Hurricane warnings were lowered to tropical storm warnings across the Florida peninsula, with widespread, catastrophic flooding remaining likely, the hurricane center said. Storm surges as high as 6 feet (2 meters) were still forecast for both coasts.

“It doesn’t matter what the intensity of the storm is. We’re still expecting quite a bit of rainfall,” Robbie Berg, senior hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center, said in an interview with The Associated Press.

Up to a foot (30 centimeters) of rain forecast for parts of Northeast Florida, coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. As much as 6 inches (15 centimeters) could fall in southern Virginia as the storm moves inland over the Carolinas, and the center said landslides were possible in the southern Appalachian mountains.

No deaths were reported in the United States from Ian by late Wednesday. But a boat carrying Cuban migrants sank Wednesday in stormy weather east of Key West.

The U.S. Coast Guard initiated a search and rescue mission for 23 people and managed to find three survivors about two miles (three kilometers) south of the Florida Keys, officials said. Four other Cubans swam to Stock Island, just east of Key West, the U.S. Border Patrol said. Air crews continued to search for possibly 20 remaining migrants.

The storm previously tore into Cuba, killing two people and bringing down the country’s electrical grid.

The hurricane’s eye made landfall near Cayo Costa, a barrier island just west of heavily populated Fort Myers. As it approached, water drained from Tampa Bay.

More than 2.5 million Florida homes and businesses were left without electricity, according to the PowerOutage.us site. Most of the homes and businesses in 12 counties were without power.

Sheriff Bull Prummell of Charlotte County, just north of Fort Myers, announced a curfew between 9 p.m. and 6 a.m. “for life-saving purposes,” saying violators may face second-degree misdemeanor charges.

“I am enacting this curfew as a means of protecting the people and property of Charlotte County,” Prummell said.

Life-threatening storm surges and hurricane conditions were possible on Thursday and Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, where Ian was expected to move inland, dumping more rain well in from the coast, the hurricane center said.

The governors of South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia and Virginia all preemptively declared states of emergency.

___

Associated Press contributors include Christina Mesquita in Havana, Cuba; Cody Jackson and Adriana Gomez Licon in Tampa, Florida; Freida Frisaro in Miami; Anthony Izaguirre in Tallahassee, Florida; Mike Schneider in Orlando, Florida; Seth Borenstein and Aamer Madhani in Washington; Bobby Caina Calvan in New York; Andrew Welsh-Huggins in Columbus, Ohio; Jay Reeves in Birmingham, Alabama, and Alina Hartounian in Phoenix, Arizona.

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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar finds footing, bonds on edge

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Us Federal Budget Deficit For August 220 Billion Against 213.5 Billion Expected
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Securities:

Markets:

  • USD leads, CAD lags the day
  • European equities down; S&P 500 futures down 0.7%
  • US 10-year rates up 12 basis points to 3.825%
  • Gold down 0.6% to $1,650.23
  • WTI Crude up 0.3% to $82.38
  • Bitcoin down 0.5% to $19,467

After a broad relief in the markets yesterday, we are seeing a return to old habits, with bonds selling off a bit as the dollar rises and equities fall. British Prime Minister Liz Truss came out to defend the government’s policy plans and pushed back on any suggestion of a budget reversal.

Despite some nervous ticking upwards in bond yields, 30-year gilt yields moved little around 3.93% on the day. However, there is a noticeable sell-off in Treasuries across the curve with 2-year yields up 11 basis points to 4.20% and 10-year yields up 12 basis points to 3, 82%.

That kept pressure on stocks, with US futures pushing lower after a strong rebound yesterday. S&P 500 futures are down 0.7% while European indices are also coming under downward pressure, with German inflation expected to top 10% in September.

The dollar remains in a decent position, recouping yesterday’s losses as GBP/USD was pushed down 1% to 1.0765 initially before paring that loss and holding levels around 1.0840 -70 at the moment.

USD/JPY continues to hold momentum just below 145.00 as buyers slowly target the level again despite intervention fears. Meanwhile, EUR/USD was initially dragged to a low of 0.9635 before holding at its 100 hourly moving average and now bouncing back to almost unchanged levels at 0.9730.

Commodity currencies continue to remain under pressure with USD/CAD up 0.4% at 1.3660, albeit far from previous highs of 1.3755. Next, AUD/USD is down 0.3% to 0.6500, but has at least cleared its previous low also at 0.6435 as the USD pulls back a bit.

A report of potential PBOC intervention is also something to consider, taking away some of the dollar tailwind with month-end trading also in focus.

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