Here is a representation of all the districts won so far in the 2022 election – 203 by Democrats, 211 by Republicans. Twenty-one districts remain uncalled as of November 12.
Let’s take these districts and sort them into four groups, dividing them by the percentage of residents who have a college degree.
Already, the trend is clear: Democrats have continued to outperform in precincts where more voters have a bachelor’s degree, while Republicans have won more precincts where fewer voters have a college education. .
And while not all votes were counted, these numbers largely continue a trend that was already strongly in effect in 2020. After the last election, the 15 districts with the highest share of college-educated adults were all represented by Democrats – and they will be again in 2023.
The lack of dramatic swings between major electoral blocs helps explain the GOP’s struggles to retake the House, which remains unconvened on Saturday.