In a deeply divided nation, the election is a real toss-up between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.

We all know there are seven battleground states that can resolve the result, barring a serious shock. However main questions persist in regards to the timing of the outcomes, the make-up of the voters, the inflow of misinformation — even the opportunity of political violence. On the similar time, either side are ready for a protracted authorized battle that would complicate issues additional.

Right here’s what to observe on the eve of Election Day 2024:

Historical past shall be made both approach

Given all of the twists and turns in current months, it’s simple to miss the historic significance of this election.

Harris would change into the primary feminine president in the USA’ 248-year historical past. She would even be the primary Black girl and particular person of South Asian descent to carry the workplace. Harris and her marketing campaign have largely performed down gender and race fearing that they could alienate some supporters. However the significance of a Harris win wouldn’t be misplaced on historians.

A Trump victory would characterize a special sort of historic accomplishment. He would change into the primary particular person convicted of a felony elected to the U.S. presidency, having been convicted of 34 felony counts in a New York hush-money case little greater than 5 months in the past.

Trump, who remains to be dealing with felony fees in a minimum of two separate prison circumstances, argued that he’s the sufferer of a politicized justice system. And tens of hundreds of thousands of voters apparently consider him — or they’re keen to miss his extraordinary authorized baggage.

How lengthy will it take to know the winner?

Election Day in the USA is now typically thought of election week as every state follows its personal guidelines and practices for counting ballots — to not point out the authorized challenges — that may delay the outcomes. However the fact is, no one is aware of how lengthy it can take for the winner to be introduced this time.

In 2020, The Related Press declared President Joe Biden the winner on Saturday afternoon — 4 days after polls closed. However even then, The AP referred to as North Carolina for Trump 10 days after Election Day and Georgia for Biden 16 days later after hand recounts.

4 years earlier, the 2016 election was determined simply hours after most polls closed. The AP declared Trump the winner on election night time at 2:29 a.m. (it was technically Wednesday morning on the East Coast).

This time, each campaigns consider the race is extraordinarily shut throughout the seven swing states which are anticipated to resolve the election, barring a serious shock: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The dimensions of the map and the tightness of the race make it onerous to foretell when a winner could possibly be declared.

The place can I discover early clues about how the competition may unfold?

Look to 2 East Coast battleground states, North Carolina and Georgia, the place the outcomes may are available in comparatively rapidly. That doesn’t imply we’ll get the ultimate leads to these states rapidly if the returns are shut, however they’re the primary swing states which may supply a way of what sort of night time we’re in for.

To go deeper, look to city and suburban areas within the industrial North and Southeast, the place Democrats have made good points since 2020.

In North Carolina, Harris’ margins in Wake and Mecklenburg Counties, residence to the state capital of Raleigh and the state’s largest metropolis, Charlotte, respectively, will reveal how a lot Trump might want to squeeze out of the less-populated rural areas he has dominated.

In Pennsylvania, Harris wants heavy turnout in deep blue Philadelphia, however she’s additionally seeking to enhance the Democrats’ benefit within the arc of suburban counties to the north and west of the town. She has campaigned aggressively in Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties, the place Biden improved on Clinton’s 2016 successful margins. The Philadelphia metro space, together with the 4 collar counties, accounts for 43 % of Pennsylvania’s vote.

Elsewhere within the Blue Wall, Trump must blunt Democratic progress in Michigan’s key suburban counties exterior of Detroit, particularly Oakland County. He faces the identical problem in Wisconsin’s Waukesha County exterior of Milwaukee.

The place are the candidates?

Trump will possible spend the very early hours of Election Day in Michigan, the place he’s scheduled to carry a last late-night rally in Grand Rapids as has change into his custom.

The Republican candidate plans to spend the remainder of the day in Florida, the place he’s anticipated to vote in particular person — regardless of beforehand saying he would vote early. He’s scheduled to carry a marketing campaign watch occasion in Palm Seaside Tuesday night time.

Harris plans to attend an Election Night time occasion at Howard College in Washington, a traditionally Black college the place she graduated with a level in economics and political science in 1986 and was an energetic member of Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority.

Except for Howard, she has no public schedule introduced for Election Day.

Harris mentioned Sunday that she had “simply crammed out” her mail-in poll and it was “on its method to California.”

Who’s left to point out up on Election Day?

On the eve of Election Day, it’s unclear which voters will present as much as solid ballots on Tuesday.

Greater than 77 million folks participated in early voting — both in particular person or by the mail. So many individuals already solid ballots that some officers say the polls in states like Georgia may be a “ghost city” on Election Day.

One main cause for the surge is that that Trump has typically inspired his supporters to vote early this time, a reversal from 2020 when he referred to as on Republicans to vote solely in-person on Election Day. The early vote numbers verify that hundreds of thousands of Republicans have heeded Trump’s name in current weeks.

The important thing query, nevertheless, is whether or not the surge of Republicans who voted early this time will in the end cannibalize the variety of Republicans who present up on Tuesday.

There are additionally shifts on the Democratic aspect. 4 years in the past, because the pandemic lingered, Democrats overwhelmingly solid their ballots early. However this time round, with out the general public well being danger, it’s possible that extra Democrats will present up in particular person on Election Day.

That steadiness on either side is essential as we attempt to perceive the early returns. And it’s on the campaigns to know which voters they nonetheless must end up on Tuesday. On that entrance, Democrats could have a bonus.

Trump’s marketing campaign and the Republican Nationwide Committee have outsourced a lot of their get-out-the-vote operation operation to exterior teams, together with one funded largely by billionaire Trump ally Elon Musk that’s dealing with new questions about its practices. Harris’ marketing campaign, in contrast, is operating a extra conventional operation that options greater than 2,500 paid staffers and 357 places of work in battleground states alone.

May there be unrest?

Trump has been aggressively selling baseless claims in current days questioning the integrity of the election. He falsely insists that he can lose provided that Democrats cheat, at the same time as polls present that present the race is a real toss-up.

Trump may once more declare victory on election night time whatever the outcomes, simply as he did in 2020.

Such rhetoric can have severe penalties because the nation noticed when Trump loyalists stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 in one of many darkest days in fashionable American historical past. And sadly, there may be nonetheless a possible of additional violence this election season.

The Republican Nationwide Committee can have 1000’s of “election integrity” ballot screens in place on Tuesday looking for any indicators of fraud, which critics worry may result in harassment of voters or election staff. In some key voting locations, officers have requested the presence of sheriff deputies along with bulletproof glass and panic buttons that join ballot managers to a neighborhood 911 dispatcher.

On the similar time, Trump allies word that he has confronted two assassination makes an attempt in current months that increase the opportunity of additional threats in opposition to him. And police in Washington and different cities are making ready for the opportunity of severe Election Day unrest.

As all the time, it’s value noting {that a} broad coalition of prime authorities and trade officers, lots of them Republicans, discovered that the 2020 election was the “most safe” in American historical past.”