Based on a panel of political science specialists, 18- to 34-year-olds are the most important age group of voters in California and will dominate the election — in the event that they prove.
Forward of the Nov. 5 presidential election, Cal State Fullerton’s Workplace of Alumni Engagement and Division of Politics, Administration and Justice are encouraging voters to show of their ballots or present up on the polls for Election Day. In California, the place same-day registration is accessible, eligible voters have the chance to register and vote till 7:59 p.m. on Nov. 5.
Through the Nov. 1 “What to Count on for the 2024 Election” panel dialogue on the Golleher Alumni Home, political science school members from Cal State Fullerton and Fullerton Faculty mentioned what to search for on Election Evening and within the days to return. The occasion was a part of the Workplace of Alumni Engagement’s Go Vote voter schooling sequence.
After the polls shut, what ought to these following the election be in search of?
Matt Jarvis, CSUF affiliate professor of political science: The primary ballot closing is Kentucky at 6:30 p.m. Jap time, which is 3:30 p.m. on the West Coast. And then you definitely get nothing for some time. The primary states to take a look at are Virginia, Florida and Ohio. If the Republican doesn’t win the 2nd District in Virginia, it’s a nasty evening for the Republicans. If the Democrat doesn’t win the seventh District, it’s going to be a nasty evening for the Democrats.
Donald Trump is anticipated to win Florida, but when it’s shut or they don’t name Florida comparatively early, then that will likely be an indication that Kamala Harris is in for an excellent evening. You’re additionally wanting on the Senate race and Districts 13 and 27, all of that are anticipated to be Republican victories. In the event that they don’t get referred to as early, that’s a sign that the Republicans aren’t doing properly. Trump is anticipated to win Ohio, however Districts 1, 9 and 13 are all anticipated to be Democratic leaders. If any of these are taking a very long time to be referred to as, you’re in all probability a protracted evening for the Democrats.
Which swing state will give the primary indication of the presidential end result?
Rob Robinson, CSUF affiliate professor of political science: Michigan. Each Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have legal guidelines set as much as delay counting, and that was performed throughout 2020 to create the portrayal of an early lead for the Republicans. These states didn’t change these guidelines from that election. However Michigan doesn’t have that form of sluggish counting. Michigan might be Harris’ most favorable state within the ‘blue wall,’ so if she’s behind or dropping there, I believe that’s an indicator for the remainder of that area.
Who will prove this election?
Shelly Arsneault, CSUF professor of public administration and political science: What I’m in search of in Florida is the abortion proposition and what number of ladies that brings out. Younger ladies are mobilized by reproductive rights and bodily autonomy questions, and they’re now the youngest voters being launched by way of TikTok to the Trump Entry Hollywood tape. They’re horrified and sharing it.
What influence do younger voters, ages 18 to 34, have on this election?
Jodi Balma, Fullerton Faculty professor of political science: 18- to 34-year-olds in California and in Orange County are the most important age cohort that now we have, so they may dominate elections. However they don’t prove. Within the 2022 and 2024 main elections, 74% of all ballots forged in Orange County and California have been forged by these ages 50 and older. The selections being made won’t be what younger folks need.
Arsneault: What retains younger folks, and Californians on the whole, from voting is the Electoral Faculty and this concept that we don’t matter. For younger folks, all the pieces is concerning the presidential election they usually don’t all the time perceive how necessary the congressional races are and that that is truly the place we will make the distinction and the place our voting would matter lots.
Jarvis: The implementation of common mail-in ballots and computerized voter registration throughout COVID actually modified the election sport. We actually can’t make excellent projections on the election outcomes as a result of we’ve solely had one race in 2020 with these voting strategies. I think about we aren’t going to have a name on Election Evening, even when they may theoretically do it. I believe they’re going to be actual gun-shy and play it protected due to all these adjustments.
What can folks count on to see within the days, weeks and months following the election?
Jarvis: I count on elevated low ranges of political violence. There will likely be tales on Election Day, some faux and a few actual, of people that have been topic to violence. If Trump wins, or it appears to be like like Trump is profitable via the early elements of November, you might be prone to see large-scale protests in most main cities. I believe these will proceed via Inauguration Day. If Harris wins, violence is prone to be greater.
Scott Spitzer, CSUF professor of political science: As a political scientist, I’m very involved concerning the well being of our democracy. I really feel just like the election course of itself is beneath a cloud of worry that’s gripping your complete nation — and but, we’re having an election. I believe there’s nonetheless an opportunity for these of you who’re in a position to vote, and haven’t but exercised that vote, to make a distinction. So please, vote.