Alexandre Pantoja is trying to profit from his first profession headlining alternative Saturday in the primary occasion of UFC 301 because the flyweight champion defends his title in opposition to rising contender Steve Erceg. Their five-round battle is about to shut the curtain on the primary UFC 301 combat card (10 p.m. ET) from Farmasi Area in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Though Pantoja has gained 5 consecutive fights to emerge as some of the dominant flyweights in latest reminiscence, he has by no means been pegged to seem in a most important occasion till getting the nod earlier than his hometown crowd for UFC 301. The Brazilian fighter faces a harmful opponent within the No. 10 Erceg, an formidable prospect who has proven a sophisticated ability set whereas profitable his first three UFC fights.
Pantoja is a -190 favourite (threat $190 to win $100), whereas Erceg is priced at +160 within the newest UFC 301 odds. Within the co-main occasion, Jonathan Martinez (-135) takes on former champion Jose Aldo (+115) in a bantamweight showdown. Earlier than locking in any UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg picks, be sure to see the MMA predictions and betting recommendation from SportsLine skilled Daniel Vithlani.
From breaking down movie and following fighters and their camps carefully, to monitoring sharp motion and betting market alerts, Vithlani covers the breadth of the MMA betting panorama high to backside. He additionally trains beginner boxers and speaks frequently with MMA fighters to grasp the game’s nuances.
Vithlani made his SportsLine debut in January 2023 and swept the primary card for UFC 283 with a 5-0 file and has been a constant winner ever since. Over the previous 10 UFC pay-per-view occasions, Vithlani has gone 7-3 on main-event picks and his main-card alternatives in that span have netted his followers a revenue of greater than $1,200.
His highlights embody calling an upset for Sean O’Malley (+210) in opposition to Aljamain Sterling (-250) at UFC 292 as a part of a 4-1 most important card and his UFC 299 winners included underdog alternatives on Dustin Poirier (+190) in opposition to Benoit Saint Denis (-230) and Michael Web page (+110) in opposition to Kevin Holland (-130). Anybody who has adopted him has seen large returns.
Now, with UFC 301 on deck, Vithlani has studied the cardboard from high to backside and launched his high picks. You possibly can solely see his picks and evaluation at SportsLine.
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg preview
Pantoja (27-5) is arguably essentially the most adorned fighter on the UFC roster to have by no means headlined an occasion for the promotion till now. For comparability’s sake, mild heavyweight journeyman Anthony Smith, a one-time title challenger who can be on the UFC 301 most important card regardless of going 1-3 in his previous 4 outings, has appeared in eight UFC most important occasions.
Pantoja is 11-3 in 14 UFC appearances since his January 2017 debut. Furthermore, he’s 5-0 mixed in opposition to top-ranked contender Brandon Royval and No. 2-ranked Brandon Moreno, who is maybe the preferred flyweight within the historical past of the division.
The 34-year-old Brazilian’s battle for recognition will be chalked as much as a low-key demeanor that’s practically absent of any self-promotion, and an efficient however workmanlike fashion that has led to few highlight-reel finishes that followers want. What’s extra, the flyweight division has lengthy been the least widespread amongst UFC observers.
Nonetheless, a formidable win in a title protection earlier than an adoring hometown crowd may present Pantoja with some lengthy overdue recognition. However he’ll need to get previous an impressed prospect who’s trying to profit from a lucky alternative.
Though Erceg (12-1) has simply three UFC fights underneath his belt and is ranked No. 10, he advantages from the dearth of depth at flyweight and the promotion’s latest development of fast-tracking dynamic prospects into title photographs, particularly those that have proven their wares in different promotions.
Seeing as the highest two flyweight contenders are already 0-5 mixed in opposition to Pantoja and no different fighters within the high 10 have a title-shot-worthy resume, the promotion turned to Erceg, an influence puncher who can be a former champion within the Everlasting MMA promotion.
The 28-year-old Australian has earned efficiency bonuses in two of his three outings and is coming off a second-round knockout of battle-tested journeyman Matt Schnell. You possibly can see extra UFC 301 picks at SportsLine.
UFC 301 predictions
We’ll share one in all Vithlani’s UFC 301 alternatives right here: He’s siding with Michel Pereira (-535) to get his hand raised in opposition to Ihor Potieria (+400) in a middleweight showdown on the primary card.
Pereira (30-11-2) was as soon as identified virtually completely for his showmanship within the cage, which included flips and different high-risk strikes throughout reside motion. Nonetheless, the 30-year-old Brazilian has since locked in on the basics and has reeled off a seven-fight profitable streak that features 4 finishes to emerge as a rising contender.
Potieria (20-5) is a flexible fighter and former standout within the World Warriors Preventing Championship promotion who had a 15-fight profitable streak upon becoming a member of the UFC. Nonetheless, the 27-year-old Ukrainian fighter has struggled to get his footing within the UFC, going 2-3 in 5 appearances.
“Pereira is on a roll and appears to be in the most effective type of his profession. Pereira has toned down his wild, flying assaults and channeled that explosive energy into a way more technical placing sport. Potieria is prone to stroll right into a Pereira counterpunch that places him away. I like Pereira to discover a knockout within the first two rounds,” VIthlani advised SportsLine. You possibly can see extra UFC 301 picks at SportsLine.
Find out how to make UFC 301 picks
Vithlani has robust picks for Pantoja vs. Erceg and different bouts on the UFC 301 card. He is additionally backing a fighter who “is youthful and extra harmful” to emerge with a dominant victory. These picks are solely obtainable at SportsLine.
Who wins UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg, and the way precisely does every combat finish? Go to SportsLine now to get detailed picks on UFC 301, all from the MMA skilled who profited greater than $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks in 2023, and discover out.
UFC 301 odds, combat card:
See full UFC 301 picks, predictions and greatest bets right here.
Alexandre Pantoja (-190) vs. Steve Erceg (+160)
Jonathan Martinez (-135) vs. Jose Aldo (+115)
Anthony Smith (+390) vs. Vitor Petrino (-520)
Michel Pereira (-535) vs. Ihor Potieria (+400)
Paul Craig (+410) vs. Caio Borralho (-550)
Joanderson Brito (-165) vs. Jack Shore (+140)
Elves Brener (+230) vs. Myktybek Orolobai (-285)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+345) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-425)
Alessandro Costa (-125) vs. Kevin Borjas (+105)
Maurico Ruffy (-165) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+140)