Cease us in the event you’ve heard this earlier than: The federal authorities may shut down someday within the subsequent few weeks if Congress cannot comply with a brand new spending invoice. It’s a acquainted state of affairs that has performed out repeatedly lately. However the newest iteration of this story has a wrinkle — the shutdown may come proper because the presidential marketing campaign heads into the house stretch.

Negotiations are off to a troublesome begin. A spending proposal from Home Speaker Mike Johnson has already stumbled, “dealing with resistance from each events,” stated The New York Occasions. His invoice would prolong federal funding by subsequent March however would additionally embody a provision “that will require proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote” — an anti-immigration measure referred to as the SAVE Act. Onerous-line Republicans on Johnson’s proper oppose the invoice as a result of it will proceed funding at ranges “they consider are too excessive.” Even when handed, although, the invoice can be “useless on arrival” within the Democratic-controlled Senate.

Looming over these calculations is Donald Trump. The GOP presidential nominee is “pressuring Republicans” for a shutdown if they don’t obtain the SAVE Act as a part of the spending invoice, NBC Information stated. “I’d shut down the federal government in a heartbeat if they do not get it,” he stated. 

What did the commentators say?

Republicans are threatening a shutdown “until Congress makes it tougher to vote,” Ian Millhiser stated at Vox. There isn’t a proof that undocumented migrants vote in “significant numbers” in American elections, nor that they’ve affected election outcomes, largely as a result of noncitizen voting already is “in fact, unlawful.” However the SAVE Act would place “important new administrative burdens” on state and native election workplaces in the course of the two months earlier than the 2024 election. That would trigger “chaos” in voting. And the combat over the invoice may properly create a special sort of chaos whether or not or not it passes: “The SAVE Act may put the U.S. at risk of a authorities shutdown.”

“Roughly 11 months have handed since former Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s historic ouster in October 2023,” Elizabeth Elkind stated at Fox Information. That removing got here instantly after McCarthy negotiated a “clear” funding extension that dropped right-wing GOP calls for so as to preserve the federal government working. Now Johnson, McCarthy’s successor, additionally finds himself caught in the identical “fraught political internet” that ended McCarthy’s profession. One complication for the speaker: It’s clear some Home Republicans will not be too involved with blowback from a shutdown. “The legacy media makes these shutdowns worse than they’re,” stated Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.).

What subsequent?

“Johnson is vibing higher together with his members than McCarthy did a yr in the past,” stated Politico. And he has one benefit that McCarthy didn’t. With the election looming — and members of Congress determined to get again on the marketing campaign path to maintain their seats — “few Home Republicans are going to need to be caught on the Hill a lot previous subsequent week.” 

All of it appears like a “unhealthy case of Groundhog Day,” Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer stated in remarks quoted by The Hill. Democrats are relying on the specter of voter backlash to push Johnson and his fellow Republicans to satisfy them within the center earlier than Election Day. “The picture of a shutdown of the federal government and turmoil in Congress,” stated Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Sick.), “doesn’t assist his occasion in November.” Time is operating out: The deadline to approve authorities funding is Sept. 30.