SEC soccer returns between the hedges this weekend as No. 5 Georgia welcomes convention rival Mississippi State in school soccer’s Week 7 motion on Saturday. Let’s test in with the most recent prediction for the sport from an professional mannequin that picks winners.
Georgia rebounded from its loss at Alabama two weeks in the past by defeating rival Auburn at house, transferring to 4-1 total and a 1-1 mark in SEC play, and is an enormous favourite heading into this matchup in opposition to Jeff Lebby’s workforce.
Mississippi State fell to 0-2 in SEC video games after losses in opposition to Texas and Florida and sits a hundred and tenth nationally in scoring protection, permitting almost 32 factors per sport, whereas posting the ninetieth ranked dashing offense and the 84th scoring assault within the nation.
What do the analytics counsel for this SEC matchup?
For that, let’s flip to the SP+ prediction mannequin to get a preview for a way Georgia and Mississippi State examine on this Week 7 school soccer sport.
As anticipated, the simulations are siding strongly with the house workforce on this sport.
SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Mississippi State by a projected rating of 43 to 13 and can win the sport by an anticipated 30.1 level margin.
The mannequin offers Georgia a close to common 97 p.c likelihood of outright victory within the sport.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of school soccer effectivity” that makes an attempt to foretell sport outcomes by measuring “probably the most sustainable and predictable features of soccer.”
How good is it this season? Thus far, the SP+ mannequin is 154-141-3 in opposition to the unfold with a 52.2 win proportion.
Georgia is a 33.5 level favourite in opposition to Mississippi State, based on the strains at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the whole at 53.5 factors for the sport (Over -115, Below -105).
And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -20000 and for Mississippi State at +4000 to win outright.
When you’re utilizing this prediction to guess on the sport, it is best to take …
Bettors are virtually evenly divided on how you can interpret the sport, based on the most recent unfold consensus picks.
A slight majority of bets — 51 p.c — counsel that Georgia will win the sport and canopy the large unfold within the course of.
The opposite 49 p.c of wagers anticipate Mississippi State will hold the sport inside the line.
Different analytical fashions additionally predictably aspect with Georgia in opposition to Mississippi State this week.
That features the Faculty Soccer Energy Index, a pc prediction mannequin that makes use of knowledge factors from each groups to simulate video games 20,000 instances to choose winners.
Georgia is projected to win outright within the overwhelming 95.1 p.c of the FPI pc’s most up-to-date simulations of the sport.
That leaves Mississippi State because the anticipated winner within the remaining 4.9 p.c of sims.
Georgia is projected to be 26.9 factors higher than Mississippi State on the identical discipline in each groups’ present composition, based on the mannequin’s newest forecast.
Georgia is second amongst SEC groups with a 74.9 p.c likelihood to qualify for the Faculty Soccer Playoff and can win 9.2 video games this season, based on the FPI’s metrics.
That mannequin offers Mississippi State a win complete projection of two.8 video games and a 0.4 p.c likelihood to play in a bowl sport this 12 months.
When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 4:15 p.m. ET | 3:15 p.m. CT
TV: SEC Community
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