How will U.S. United Methodists vote?

Key factors:

• Mainline Protestant church buildings will probably have near-equal numbers of Democrats, Republicans and independents for the foreseeable future.
• For mainline Protestants resembling United Methodists, components aside from denomination – resembling race, age, geographic location – could also be extra predictive of how they vote.
• Whereas there isn’t a option to understand how church members will vote, voting knowledge for every county the place United Methodist church buildings are situated can provide perception.

Those that consult with their United Methodist congregation or the denomination itself in the USA as a “purple” church are in all probability proper.

As Vanderbilt historian James Hudnut-Buemler put it, removed from being the “American political left at prayer, the mainline Protestant church buildings will proceed to be distinct for numbering close to equal numbers of Republicans, Democrats and independents for years to return.”

Ends in presidential elections over a long time display the range of mainline church constituencies. For mainline Protestants resembling United Methodists, components aside from denomination could also be way more predictive of how they vote. Race, geographic location, age, training and financial standing make a distinction of their voting patterns.

With out dependable survey knowledge, there isn’t a option to understand how United Methodists voted within the final presidential election. What we can do is determine the county through which every United Methodist church is situated and see how the county voted. This tells us extra concerning the influence of geographic location and its related demographics than how particular person United Methodists voted.

It additionally reveals how the influence of an more and more concentrated inhabitants shapes elections. Over two-thirds of the inhabitants of the USA lives in lower than 10 p.c of the counties. Consequently, these densely populated areas can form elections. For instance, within the 2020 election, President Biden gained extra votes and fewer counties than any president in any earlier election.

Subsequently, when taking a look at how the counties through which church buildings are situated voted in 2020, their location by way of densely populated counties and extra sparsely populated counties will form a lot of the findings. It will be significant additionally to notice that it isn’t uncommon for mainline church buildings as longstanding establishments within the nation to be situated in additional rural elements of the nation. Many of those church buildings had been established when the nation was predominantly rural. Church places are likely to mirror the placement of the inhabitants when the church was established.

So, with all these acceptable disclaimers, we study the placement of United Methodist church buildings in 2019 and the way their counties voted within the 2020 presidential election. There have been 30,541 U.S. United Methodist church buildings in 2019. (The counties through which these church buildings had been situated is obtainable for all however 118 of them.) Of the 30,423 church buildings for which we have now counties, we are able to report the presidential election successful occasion in 2020 for his or her counties. For comparability, the general share of all counties gained by every occasion is given.

All U.S. counties

Counties gained by the Democratic Get together          18%   
Counties gained by the Republican Get together          82%    

How the counties voted primarily based on the placement of all United Methodist church buildings

UM church buildings situated in counties gained by the Democratic Get together       27%
UM church buildings situated in counties gained by the Republican Get together        73%

Because the 2020 election, roughly 25 p.c of United Methodist church buildings have disaffiliated from the denomination over problems with human sexuality by means of a course of accredited by a particular session of the Common Convention in 2019. Now we are able to see some variation within the proportionate location of the disaffiliating church buildings and the way the counties through which they’re situated voted in 2020. 

Staying church buildings – How the counties voted primarily based on the placement of church buildings staying

Church buildings situated in counties gained by the Democratic Get together 31%
Church buildings situated in counties gained by the Republican Get together 69%

Disaffiliating church buildings – How the counties voted primarily based on the placement of church buildings disaffiliating

Church buildings situated in counties gained by the Democratic Get together 12%
Church buildings situated in counties gained by the Republican Get together 88%

There isn’t any option to understand how United Methodists will vote in 2024. We will be assured that votes might be forged from a variety of motivations and, ultimately, might be completely numerous. We are going to hope that the Wesleyan heritage of working for the widespread good of society might be a part of that motivation. 

And we’ll pray that amid a deeply divided nation, our congregations might mannequin respect for diversities that needn’t divide our life collectively in Christ. 

Weems is distinguished professor of church management and senior advisor of the Lewis Heart for Church Management at Wesley Theological Seminary in Washington.

Information media contact: Tim Tanton or Joey Butler at (615) 742-5470 or [email protected]. To learn extra United Methodist information, subscribe to the free UM Information every day or weekly digests.