Inflation data points to small increase in benefits

Seniors, the time has come to metal yourselves for a modest improve in your Social Safety verify subsequent yr.

The annual COLA, or cost-of-living adjustment, is prone to be 2.6%, lower than the 2024 COLA of three.2%, which bumped up the common month-to-month profit by greater than $50, and effectively beneath the 8.7% improve in advantages acquired two years in the past.

The explanation: easing inflation, which is an efficient factor total.

The crystal ball COLA estimate relies on inflation information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics launched Wednesday, which confirmed shopper costs in July rose 2.9% over the prior yr, a tiny downtick from June’s 3% improve.

The COLA is calculated by averaging inflation information for the third quarter of the yr — July, August, and September of 2024 — after which evaluating that determine with the identical information from final yr based mostly on the Client Value Index (CPI) for all city wage earners and clerical staff (CPI-W).

The Social Safety Administration is predicted to announce the precise 2025 COLA in mid-October after the discharge of the September CPI information.

We “count on a considerably decrease COLA for subsequent yr after the three.2% COLA in 2024,” Shannon Benton, govt director of the Senior Residents League, advised Yahoo Finance.

Learn extra: Learn how to discover out your 2024 Social Safety COLA improve

Seniors’ inflation nonetheless sticky

The wrench in all of it is that whereas total inflation is easing, the price of issues that gobble up a good portion of many seniors’ checks will not be cooling on the identical tempo.

Costs for gadgets corresponding to shelter, electrical energy, hospital, and outpatient medical companies — main bills for hundreds of thousands of seniors — proceed to outpace the general fee of inflation.

A smaller COLA subsequent yr would pinch the greater than 70 million retired senior residents and disabled staff who’re nonetheless grappling with excessive costs.

“Though the speed of inflation has slowed significantly, we dwell in a courageous new world of inflated costs for issues retirees depend on corresponding to housing, hospital, and in-home healthcare that appear caught on excessive for now,” Mary Johnson, Social Safety and Medicare coverage analyst, advised Yahoo Finance.

“And all of us are battling the excessive price of maintaining cool as temperatures set highs,” she added. “The worth of electrical energy went up in the course of the inflation years and hasn’t come down that a lot.”

Housing takes as much as 50% of budgets. The shelter index elevated 0.4% in July, up 5.1% yr over yr.

It’s fairly robust for seniors to get a grip on their finances when the 2 largest bills — housing and healthcare — preserve ticking up.

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Advantages fall brief for seniors

The issue is that Social Safety’s annual will increase haven’t at all times been sufficient, Benton mentioned. For instance, whereas there was a 5.9% COLA bump in 2022, inflation clocked in at 7% in 2021 and 6.5% in 2022, in accordance with the CPI.

Between 2010 and 2024, Social Safety COLAs elevated advantages 3.9% per yr on common.

Within the Senior Residents League’s 2024 Retirement Survey, almost half of these surveyed mentioned they’re “getting by for now” however not assured concerning the future. And greater than 1 / 4 reported they’re having hassle affording necessities.

For about half of seniors, Social Safety offers at the very least half of their revenue, and for about 1 in 4 seniors, it accounts for at the very least 90% of revenue.

With an anticipated improve of simply 2.6% subsequent yr, it will not be a lot simpler to make ends meet.

“The projected cost-of-living adjustment for Social Safety recipients is failing to maintain up with the precise rise in residing bills,” Benton added. “This leaves many retirees unable to keep up an inexpensive lifestyle.”

Learn the most recent information on inflation:

Kerry Hannon is a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance. She is a profession and retirement strategist, and the writer of 14 books, together with “In Management at 50+: Learn how to Reach The New World of Work” and “By no means Too Previous To Get Wealthy.” Observe her on X @kerryhannon.

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