Keon Coleman Will Finish as the Top Rookie Wide Receiver in Fantasy Football

This was set as much as be the “12 months of the rookie” for broad receivers in fantasy soccer. The 2024 NFL Draft was traditionally offense-heavy, and fantasy managers took discover.

Marvin Harrison Jr. was usually a second-round decide (even sneaking into the late first spherical in some leagues). Malik Nabers was drafted as a top-24 wideout. Pleasure was at an all-time excessive.

However Week 1 took a variety of wind out of these sails. Managers are fearful about their excessive draft picks, and out of the blue the dialog is broad open round who the most effective rookie broad receiver is for the 2024 fantasy soccer season.

It wasn’t all unhealthy, both. Xavier Worthy was wildly spectacular on opening evening for the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs and Brian Thomas Jr. seemed nice for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

However I am right here to inform you that the highest scorer is not going to be Harrison or Nabers. It will not even be Worthy or Thomas. Will probably be the Buffalo Payments’ Keon Coleman.

I am on the file saying that each one the memes round Marvin Harrison Jr.’s struggles make him an incredible buy-low candidate, however that does not imply I believe he is the most effective wager to guide rookies. Kyler Murray has usually struggled to provide a real fantasy star wideout. DeAndre Hopkins in 2020 is the one Cardinal to eclipse even 1,000 yards in a single season. Harrison ought to bounce again, however his ceiling nonetheless appears to have a little bit of a cap on it.

Malik Nabers seemed nice in his debut, however the New York Giants didn’t. Daniel Jones was as horrible as marketed, and this offense has points that Jones, or backup Drew Lock, will not repair. Nabers’ 7 targets have been nearer to Devin Singletary (5) than to crew chief Wan’Dale Robinson (12).

Nabers’ quantity ought to improve, however effectivity and playcalling will stay an enormous concern,

Xavier Worthy’s apparent downside is Hollywood Brown will likely be returning finally, and he might fall so far as fourth within the pecking order for seems to be within the Chiefs’ receiving recreation (behind Brown, Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce). Because it was, he had solely 3 targets and 1 rush try in that spectacular debut.

Thomas equally did not see nice quantity and simply has an excessive amount of competitors in his offense. His 4 targets had him tied with Christian Kirk and Evan Engram and have been only one greater than Travis Etienne and Gabe Davis every noticed.

So if I am fearful about gamers who solely noticed 4 or 5 seems to be in Week 1, why am I so in on Keon Coleman’s 4 receptions for 51 yards on 5 targets in his Buffalo Payments debut?

These 5 targets gave him a solo crew lead — no person else within the Payments offense noticed greater than 3. He accounted for 22% of the crew’s whole targets and 27.7% of the crew’s air yards. Each of these shares are increased than any of the 4 gamers listed above.

Coleman additionally performed 45 snaps — 9 greater than the next-best Payments WR (Mack Hollins at 36) and 12 greater than third-place Khalil Shakir. Neither Curtis Samuel nor Marquez Valdes-Scantling performed greater than 20.

Coleman is the clear WR1 on this offense. And that is a golden alternative for fantasy manufacturing.

Sure, Buffalo went very run-heavy to open the season. However in addition they began the 12 months towards an Arizona Cardinals protection that PFF ranked thirty second in run protection with an abysmal 38.2 grade in 2023 (whereas no different crew completed worse than 50.0). The matchup was the right alternative to grind out a run-heavy win. Josh Allen tried solely 23 passes, whereas his common final 12 months was 34.1.

Allen remains to be No. 7 in FanDuel Sportsbook’s odds to guide the NFL in passing yards within the common season, and at +1100 there’s not a giant distinction in his implied likelihood (8.3%) and even third-placed Patrick Mahomes (11.1% at +800). He is additionally No. 2 within the odds to guide the NFL in passing touchdowns and No. 2 within the MVP odds.

So right here we now have an elite quarterback projected to be some of the statistically productive within the league. Clearly his clear-cut WR1 goes to be a terrific fantasy asset, and it is best to instantly go commerce for him in case you can, proper?

Proper. Go purchase Keon Coleman now earlier than it is too late.