Mets-Dodgers NLCS position-by-position breakdown

Everyone knows that the Mets-Dodgers Nationwide League Championship Collection goes to be portrayed as one thing of a David vs. Goliath, given the very totally different expectations of those golf equipment getting into the 2024 season. However that may not be fairly correct. For one factor, for all of the discuss in regards to the Dodgers spending a billion {dollars} final winter, it’s truly the Mets who’re the upper payroll workforce right here. For an additional, do not forget that because the center of Could — or, , 5 full months — the groups have had virtually precisely equivalent profitable percentages.

And, additionally, it’s New York vs. Los Angeles. Is it even potential for there to be a “David” right here? (No, not Roberts.)

What we’ve, as an alternative, is Ohtani vs. Lindor. We’ve the battle over Mike Piazza’s legacy. We’ve what’s a much more compelling baseball collection than you may need thought had you realized about this a number of months in the past. Let’s go place by place to interrupt it down.

Will Smith and Francisco Alvarez each produced glorious first halves, then had actually tough second halves — and neither has executed a lot of something in any respect within the postseason, save for Smith’s lengthy Recreation 4 residence run. Smith earns a small edge right here, simply because he’s been higher over the course of the final two seasons — i.e., the size of Alvarez’s profession — however it’s not by a lot. Although each have been ice chilly, every have confirmed they are often a lot, significantly better than this.

Freddie Freeman is a dwelling Corridor of Famer, and whereas Pete Alonso is, in fact, superb, he’s doubtless not fairly that. (When you price all of their seasons by WAR, Freeman has the highest 5 and 10 of the highest 11.) That’s clearly partially about Freeman being a star earlier than Alonso even reached the bigs. Nevertheless it’s not nearly previous historical past; even simply in 2024, Freeman was nonetheless the higher participant. Normally, that may be sufficient for an edge right here, but this isn’t a traditional state of affairs. Freeman’s badly injured ankle pressured him out of Recreation 2 early, prevented him from enjoying in Recreation 4 in any respect, and precipitated him to be lifted for protection in Recreation 5.

He’s clearly not at full power. And whereas he’s earned a substantial amount of respect for making an attempt to play by way of it, we’ll must take a totally practical and sizzling Alonso over a diminished Freeman.

This won’t go the way you assume it should — as a result of whereas Jose Iglesias (137 OPS+) was certainly significantly better than Gavin Lux (101 OPS+), there have at all times been a whole lot of questions on how lengthy Iglesias might make that final, given A) a whole profession of not doing that, and B) his presence as what Statcast considers the second-largest overperformer in baseball. That’s already occurred, to some extent, as Iglesias is hitting merely .207/.233/.207 within the postseason. It’s gone the opposite manner for Lux, who was simply unbelievable within the second half (.304/.391/.508, an .899 OPS) after purposefully including some aggression to his swing, earlier than pitching in with a homer in NLDS Recreation 4.

It’s sufficient to not fear that a lot in regards to the full-season stat line, and give attention to who these guys are proper now. That mentioned, the Mets even have a wild card: the potential of Jeff McNeil coming back from a fractured wrist to be obtainable in some capability, as a result of after his personal midseason change to be extra aggressive, he slugged .533 in his final 50 video games. It’s exhausting to know, nevertheless, what he could also be prepared to supply.

It’s has-a-strong-case-to-be-MVP-and-has-had-some-legendary-moments Francisco Lindor in opposition to … effectively, it’s exhausting to say. It’s not Mookie Betts; he’s in proper area. It is perhaps Miguel Rojas, if he’s wholesome, or Tommy Edman, if he’s not, and possibly it finally ends up being each of them, and it actually doesn’t matter, does it? The Mets have Lindor. The Dodgers don’t.

Now, we begin actually moving into all of the transferring components the Dodgers have, as a result of that is going to be Max Muncy — until he has to shift to first if Freeman wants reduction, through which case it will be Chris Taylor or Enrique Hernández. Muncy and New York’s Mark Vientos hit roughly evenly through the common season, although in fact Muncy has a for much longer monitor report of doing so. However Vientos has been significantly better this postseason. And whereas that alone isn’t sufficient for an edge right here, the truth that Taylor and Hernández are every sizable steps down — and the probability that considered one of them is required right here — tilts this to the Mets.

Over the course of their respective careers, which every started in 2016, Brandon Nimmo has been a good bit extra helpful than Teoscar Hernández — even when Nimmo stays a criminally underrated star. However Nimmo’s stable first half (.815 OPS) collapsed right into a summer-long battle (.595 OPS) within the second half, although he’s rebounded within the postseason. In the meantime, Hernandez had one thing like a profession 12 months, mashing 33 homers, and ended up out-slugging Nimmo by 102 factors. He’s been simply pretty much as good in October, too. This one goes to Los Angeles.

Mickey, Willie, and/or the Duke, this isn’t. Removed from the times the place middle area can be the house of a workforce’s largest stars, this collection contains a assortment of helpful — if imperfect — position gamers, with a considerably unclear imaginative and prescient of who precisely will get essentially the most enjoying time right here. The Dodgers have primarily used Edman, besides he is perhaps wanted at shortstop, or they might use Enrique Hernández, besides he is perhaps wanted at third base, and so they would possibly simply find yourself with the talented-yet-inconsistent Andy Pages. (Neither James Outman nor Kevin Kiermaier was on the NLDS roster.)

It’s quite a bit. The Mets counter with Harrison Bader and/or Tyrone Taylor, who haven’t hit even a little bit within the postseason. However at the least we all know that whichever one it’s, they’ll present robust protection. We’re contemplating bending the principles to provide all sides an obstacle, however all it takes is one nice fielding play to show the tide in a brief collection.

Do not forget that temporary second in the beginning of the Padres collection, when the one query about Betts was why his postseason struggles had lingered? Just a few huge homers later, and rapidly he was among the finest hitters the Dodgers had within the NLDS. He’s additionally nonetheless “actually Mookie Betts.” At 35 years previous, Starling Marte has missed a substantial amount of time the final two years with accidents, and hasn’t stood out when obtainable (89 OPS+); his once-excellent protection is now a legal responsibility. That is a simple one.

The Dodgers make use of Shohei Ohtani.

No disrespect in any respect meant to J.D. Martinez, in fact, who was an All-Star for the Dodgers final season earlier than transferring on to the Mets. However he isn’t Ohtani. Nobody is.

We might consider these two merely on the deserves of the pitchers who’re prone to make begins, however it’s extra sophisticated than that. Because the Mets dispatched the Phillies in 4 video games, they’ll have had three days off to reset their rotation, permitting supervisor Carlos Mendoza to decide on between any of Kodai Senga, Luis Severino, and Sean Manaea (the Mets are going with Senga in Recreation 1, with Manaea in Recreation 2). These are the highest three, with Jose Quintana prone to begin Recreation 4, and Senga, Manaea and Severino obtainable once more to start out potential Video games 5, 6, and seven.

It’s an excellent rotation, not a fantastic one. However it’s, at the least, a rotation. It’s 4 average-to-solid starters who can deal with all seven video games, if wanted. In the meantime, the Dodgers solely had three starters to start with — and every of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, and Walker Buehler include appreciable questions — and now, with Yamamoto having been utilized in NLDS Recreation 5, he’s unavailable till at the least NLCS Recreation 3 — and extra doubtless Recreation 4 — presumably giving him only a single NLCS begin.

Which means, if the collection goes seven, they’re going to want 4 begins from Flaherty and Buehler — together with doubtlessly two bullpen video games. The Dodger bullpen is fairly good, so possibly that’s not a horrible possibility. It’s not, nevertheless, a rotation.

It’s been a little bit of a whiplash-like season for the Dodger relievers — be aware the two.57 ERA in Could/June disintegrating right into a 5.65 mark in July — however it stabilized close to the tip of the season, and has been an absolute power in October. It’s even higher than it seems, actually; of the six earned runs the bullpen has allowed, half got here off of low-leverage rookie Edgardo Henriquez mopping up in San Diego’s Recreation 2 blowout win. Absolutely you noticed the Padres fail to attain for twenty-four consecutive innings to finish the NLDS?

Blake Treinen, Anthony Banda, Michael Kopech, Alex Vesia, Evan Phillips, and Daniel Hudson have every pitched a number of scoreless innings within the playoffs up to now, and that group of six had already posted 302 1/3 innings of two.53 ERA ball for Los Angeles within the common season. (Although Vesia leaving Recreation 5 with an damage provides some concern.)

It’s a powerful group, maybe stronger than the Dodgers have had in a while, and so they’re going to be relied upon closely within the NLCS. It’s not that the Mets ‘pen is a weak spot, in fact; when Edwin Díaz is at his greatest, there’s hardly anybody higher, and Tylor Megill and David Peterson have develop into helpful multi-inning items. However a key challenge right here is that the Mets relievers had the very best stroll price within the NL this 12 months (10.8%), and so they’ve truly walked extra within the postseason (12.4%). Look no additional than the tip of the Phillies collection to see simply what sort of tightrope a postseason bullpen should stroll once they’re handing out free passes.

We’re not essentially out right here on the vibes practice, as a result of as spectacular because the OMG and Grimace runs have been, finally these are baseball groups who must win baseball video games. However the Mets haven’t been a Johnny-come-lately flash, both. As we mentioned, return all the best way to Could 15 — practically 5 months in the past — and so they gained extra regular-season video games than the Dodgers. It is not as a lot a mismatch because the narratives are going to make it appear.

Throw of their skill to set their rotation whereas the Dodgers must scramble but once more, and put together to see an entire lot extra of a sure purple fast-food mascot.