No matter what occurs in Sunday’s Wimbledon ultimate, Novak Djokovic will go away with a lead within the all-time Grand Slam race that appears completely safe.
He’s going to retire with the sting over Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer it doesn’t matter what. Everybody else is to this point behind that the numbers appear irrelevant. Does it actually matter whether or not Djokovic has 24 or 25 majors as he begins the inevitable wind-down of his profession at age 37?
It would — solely due to the man who shall be standing throughout the web from Djokovic on Sunday.
Carlos Alcaraz heads into the Wimbledon ultimate with the chance to make a whole lot of historical past. He may develop into the ninth man within the Open period to go back-to-back on the All-England Membership and simply the sixth to finish the French Open-Wimbledon double.
But when Alcaraz wins his fourth Grand Slam title Sunday, Djokovic might effectively want to fret about whether or not he has sufficient respiration room.
Sounds absurd, would not it? 4 continues to be a really great distance from 24. So many issues can occur in a tennis profession, from harm to lack of motivation to a different worthy rival coming alongside and taking his share of titles, that the percentages are lengthy of anybody catching Djokovic.
However primarily based on what we’ve already seen from Alcaraz, and what nearly actually lies forward in his growth, it isn’t loopy to suppose that he has an actual shot to achieve the 20s. If we’re peering one other decade and a half into the long run when Alcaraz is identical age Djokovic is now, would it not be a giant shock if we keep in mind this Wimbledon ultimate as a pivotal second of their Grand Slam rivalry?
Right here’s the straightforward case for why Djokovic ought to really feel no less than just a little bit threatened by the prospect of Alcaraz sooner or later breaking his most essential file.
- Not solely has Alcaraz gained three Slams at age 21, he is accomplished it on three totally different surfaces. He is not going to find yourself like Pete Sampras, who by no means found out clay. He isn’t going to be like Ivan Lendl, who couldn’t recover from the end line on grass. Barring harm, Alcaraz goes to contend at each Grand Slam for the foreseeable future, and the actual fact he’s struggled (comparatively talking) on the Australian Open up to now is usually simply unhealthy/unfortunate timing. There’s little doubt he’ll finally win there to finish the profession Slam.
- No one among the many prime group of youthful gamers is in Alcaraz’s weight class. Sure, his rivalry with 22-year-old Jannik Sinner has produced some nice matches, and Sinner has gained his share of their matches (Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 5-4). However Sinner, who gained the Australian Open this yr, has not proven that he’s as persistently good at bodily surviving robust matches within the five-set format. Alcaraz has already blown previous the likes of Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev and the remaining. They will beat Alcaraz on the correct day, however on the entire they don’t seem to be actually a risk to him. Solely Djokovic and Sinner are, and Djokovic is not going to be round for much longer.
- Alcaraz has already reached the stage the place he can win a Grand Slam with out enjoying his greatest tennis. For everybody else, issues should line up completely simply to win one. Alcaraz entered the French Open this yr with query marks a few forearm harm, performed at perhaps 80 p.c of his capability with a number of unhealthy spells in the course of the match however gained it anyway as a result of he was nice within the clutch.
- If Alcaraz averaged 1 1/2 Grand Slam titles a yr over the following decade, he’d have 18 by age 31. That doesn’t merely appear effectively inside attain at this level, it is likely to be a conservative estimate of his functionality.
- And maybe the largest consider all this: Alcaraz nonetheless has a whole lot of room to get higher. His serve ought to enhance. His shot choice may be refined along with his expertise. His temptation to go for the splashy play moderately than the the stable shot, which typically will get him in hassle, ought to mellow out over time. He’ll finally be taught to struggle off his dips in focus. Pretty much as good as Alcaraz is now, he’s not even near nearly as good as what he ought to be in his prime.
Although it already appeared like Alcaraz was a generational expertise when he made his first Wimbledon ultimate final yr, placing his identify into the Grand Slam file dialog would have been ridiculous at that time. He solely had a US Open title on his résumé and was a big underdog to Djokovic, whose seven Wimbledon titles path solely Federer’s eight.
When Alcaraz gained the match in 5 units, it was the primary actual tectonic shift in tennis’ energy construction. Although Djokovic responded by having an unimaginable fall, together with rolling by the US Open, the youngsters took management of the game within the first half of 2024 whereas Djokovic’s well being and motivation to bodily grind like he used to have been instantly in query, as he performed sparingly and poorly from the Australian Open during the spring.
A couple of weeks in the past, it did not appear possible Djokovic would get this opportunity so as to add a twenty fifth main this summer time – or perhaps ever when he needed to pull out of the French Open quarterfinals with a knee harm.
Djokovic shortly opted for surgical procedure, and the standard pondering was that he needed to get wholesome, if attainable, for the Olympics, which is the one large prize he’s by no means gained. As an alternative, he felt sufficient progress to enter Wimbledon, caught a really favorable draw and has used his wealth of expertise and canniness on grass to roll into the ultimate with out even having to push himself that tough.
At this stage of his profession, that is likely to be the system Djokovic wants so as to add extra Slams. Issues broke proper for him this time, and the one actual take a look at he’ll face is within the ultimate — a match he actually can win.
However in contrast to final yr, Alcaraz is the favourite this time. He is aware of the way to mentally and bodily deal with Grand Slam finals, and his prime stage is no less than equal to or perhaps even higher than Djokovic’s prime stage in 2024.
Djokovic might have sufficient within the tank to get a couple of extra Grand Slam titles, however he’s by no means going to get a greater probability than at Wimbledon, on the floor the place his bodily decline is not almost as a lot of an element as it’s on exhausting court docket or clay.
It’s an actual alternative to place extra distance between himself and Alcaraz within the historical past books. The best way issues are trending, Djokovic might have it down the street.