Issues by no means fairly go based on script in New York. Serena Williams entered the 2015 US Open prepared to perform the one factor she hadn’t: a calendar Grand Slam. As an alternative, she misplaced to Roberta Vinci within the semis, a participant in opposition to whom she had by no means even dropped a set. Novak Djokovic tried the identical in 2021 and wobbled all the best way to the finals earlier than he acquired blown out in straight units by Daniil Medvedev.
If a participant goes to make an out-of-nowhere run at a Slam, it will in all probability be in Queens. Over the previous 15 years, 18 gamers have gained their first and solely Slam title (so far): 10 on the US Open and eight on the different three Slams (Australian Open, French Open and Wimbledon) mixed. For seven straight years, both the lads’s or girls’s champion (or, in 2021, each) was a first-timer.
The favorites listing heading into this 12 months’s New York fortnight is a well-known one: Carlos Alcaraz, Djokovic and Jannik Sinner — aka the winners of the previous 9 Slams (and the 2024 Olympic gold and silver medals) — are the betting favorites on the lads’s facet, whereas Aryna Sabalenka (the winner of two straight Australian Opens and a semifinalist at three straight US Opens) and Iga Swiatek (the 2022 US Open winner and five-time Slam champ) cleared the path on the ladies’s facet. That every one makes excellent sense. However the actual favourite is absolute chaos. Let’s speak about among the greatest and most attention-grabbing names on this 12 months’s discipline.
Word: Inside every part under, gamers are listed so as of their ESPN BET title odds.
The favorites
Carlos Alcaraz
ESPN BET odds: +185 | Tennis Summary odds: 14%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Hubert Hurkacz or No. 10 Alex De Minaur (quarterfinals)
The No. 3 seed, Alcaraz’s odds acquired a little bit bit worse after he landed in the identical half of the draw as Sinner for the third straight Slam, however he is gained 42 of his previous 45 Slam matches, two in a row at Slams in opposition to each Djokovic and Sinner. Alcaraz is the present grasp of the best-of-five-sets format, and if he manages to win the US Open this 12 months, he would turn into the primary man to ever win 5 Slam titles earlier than his twenty second birthday.
Novak Djokovic
ESPN BET odds: +210 | Tennis Summary odds: 29%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Andrey Rublev or No. 8 Grigor Dimitrov (quarterfinals)
Not that he wants the assistance, however for the second straight Slam, Djokovic acquired an unbelievable favorable draw. The three greatest threats to what can be his twenty fifth Slam title and fifth US Open win are in all probability Alcaraz, Sinner and Medvedev, the 2021 champion; and so they’re all on the opposite facet of the bracket. Djokovic would possibly nonetheless need to take care of No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev or No. 8 Casper Ruud — each previous US Open finalists — within the semis, however he is a mixed 4-0 in opposition to these two in best-of-fives, and he is brimming with confidence following his Paris Olympic gold medal.
Aryna Sabalenka
ESPN BET odds: +225 | Tennis Summary odds: 19%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Qinwen Zheng (quarterfinals)
Her French Open quarterfinal loss to Mirra Andreeva ended a run of six straight Slam semifinals, and a shoulder damage stored her out of Wimbledon and the Olympics. However the defending US Open runner-up is 16-3 on this event over the previous three years. She’s gained two straight titles on the different hard-court Slam, and he or she rolled by Swiatek and Jessica Pegula to win the Cincinnati title earlier this month with out dropping a set. All of that spells “FAVORITE” in very shiny lights.
2:21
Sinner on why he shook up his employees after optimistic doping assessments
Jannik Sinner discusses avoiding a suspension for his optimistic assessments for a banned substance and explains the choices he made to shake up his employees.
Jannik Sinner
ESPN BET odds: +375 | Tennis Summary odds: 42%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Daniil Medvedev (quarterfinals)
Between lingering hip points, the controversy surrounding his optimistic doping check and a completely powerful draw this 12 months, he may need to undergo every of the previous three champions (Medvedev, Alcaraz, Djokovic) in succession to win his first US Open. Sinner’s title odds have sunk significantly of late, however he is 48-5 in 2024, gained the 1000-level occasion in Cincinnati final week and remains to be ranked No. 1 on the planet. Not precisely an underdog.
Iga Swiatek
ESPN BET odds: +340 | Tennis Summary odds: 36%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 6 Pegula (quarterfinals)
Due to how excessive she’s set the bar, issues really feel a bit off for the world No. 1 in the meanwhile. Regardless of being a downright Rafael Nadal-like presence on clay, she was upset by Zheng on the 2024 Olympics, and he or she’s misplaced three of her previous 12 matches, which for Swiatek is relatively catastrophic. Her facet of the bracket additionally consists of 4 of the highest six seeds. However at worst, the five-time Slam champion goes to be the No. 2 favourite in principally any event she enters.
The People
Coco Gauff
ESPN BET odds: +800 | Tennis Summary odds: 5.0%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Barbora Krejcikova or No. 9 Maria Sakkari (quarterfinals)
From mid-July 2023 by the primary week of Wimbledon 2024 in early July, Gauff was a whopping 59-14 with 4 titles, rising as excessive as No. 2 on the planet. However she’s simply 4-4 since. Issues did not go properly for Gauff in a fourth-round Wimbledon loss to Emma Navarro , and it would not seem she’s gotten all of it the best way again but. She double-faulted in losses in each Toronto and Cincinnati, and he or she has to hope that returning to the scene of her biggest triumph (in 2023) will get her again in the fitting way of thinking.
Jessica Pegula
ESPN BET odds: +1200 | Tennis Summary odds: 2.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: Swiatek (quarterfinals)
If we’re to see one other first-time Slam champion in New York, why not Pegula? She’s the No. 5 betting favourite among the many girls, and he or she reached the quarterfinals there in 2022. The 30-year-old has gained solely 5 matches in her final three Slams, and he or she missed two months with a neck damage this spring. However she performed her manner again into type this summer time, profitable 9 of 10 matches in Toronto and Cincinnati. In contrast to many prime gamers, she heads to New York with apparent momentum.
Danielle Collins
ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Summary odds: 3.9%
First potential top-10 opponent: Pegula (fourth spherical)
After asserting that she can be retiring on the finish of 2024, Collins gained 15 consecutive matches, two titles and rose as excessive as ninth on the planet. However since reaching the finals in Strasbourg in Might, she’s gone simply 7-5, and final week she misplaced her solely post-Olympics match, to Erika Andreeva in Monterrey. Her fifth gear is pretty much as good as nearly anybody’s if she will shift into it one final time.
Madison Keys
ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.3%
First potential top-10 opponent: Sabalenka (fourth spherical)
Keys has reached six Slam semifinals in her profession, and 5 have been on arduous courts (three in New York). Simply final 12 months, she got here inside a heartbreaking third-set tiebreak of her second US Open finals look. She’s gained 17 of her previous 21 full matches, too, and two of her losses have been to Swiatek on clay (which barely counts). This all appears encouraging. Much less encouraging: She needed to retire from every of her previous two matches, with a hamstring damage at Wimbledon and a thigh damage in Toronto. She’s a menace if she’s 100%, however that is a mighty massive “if” in the meanwhile.
Taylor Fritz
ESPN BET odds: +4000 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Casper Ruud (fourth spherical)
American males are in a 21-year Slam title drought (Andy Roddick, 2003 US Open), however they’ve 5 gamers within the prime 20 in the meanwhile. May one make a run? And would possibly or not it’s Fritz? He is been within the ATP prime 15 for almost 2½ straight years, and he is made the quarterfinals of three of the previous 4 Slams. He landed in Zverev’s quarter, which might be the friendliest place to be. He is been so regular, however can he recover from the quarterfinal hump?
Frances Tiafoe
ESPN BET odds: +5000 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: Djokovic (fourth spherical)
After a irritating 12 months in 2023, the US Open semifinalist in 2022 jumped again into the ATP prime 20 with a run to the Cincinnati finals. During the last 12 months, he is 16-8 in the USA and 14-19 exterior the U.S. He did not rating an excellent draw — he might face Ben Shelton within the third spherical and Djokovic within the fourth — however odds are strong that the very best model of Tiafoe will once more come out in New York.
Sebastian Korda
ESPN BET odds: +6600 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: Alcaraz (fourth spherical)
Winter and spring weren’t form to the 24-year-old; following a third-round exit at Roland Garros, he was simply 15-13 in 2024. However he discovered a rhythm in grass courtroom season and continued it on American residence soil. He is 16-5 since June, he gained the title in Washington, and he reached the semifinals in Montreal. We have been ready for an additional Korda run for the reason that 2023 Australian Open; is now the time?
Tommy Paul
ESPN BET odds: +8000 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.3%
First potential top-10 opponent: Sinner (fourth spherical)
Like Fritz, Paul has developed into an ultra-steady professional, slowly fixing one weak spot at a time and spending most of 2023-24 within the ATP prime 20. He battles prime professionals properly, and his general athleticism is top-notch. Touchdown within the Sinner/Medvedev quarter in all probability assures that this may not be his longest Slam run, however he has formally turned himself right into a participant to be reckoned with for any opponent with title ambitions.
Ben Shelton
ESPN BET odds: +8000 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: Djokovic (fourth spherical)
After reaching each the Australian Open quarterfinals and US Open semis final 12 months, Shelton has been ready for the same breakthrough in 2024. He is performed properly as a favourite, however since beating Sinner and Paul final October, he is misplaced his final eight matches in opposition to top-20 opponents. With Tiafoe doubtlessly looming within the third spherical (and Djokovic after that), now can be an excellent time to finish that streak.
Others: Amanda Anisimova (+4000), Emma Navarro (+2800), Sloane Stephens (+8000)
They love New York
Alexander Zverev
ESPN BET odds: +900 | Tennis Summary odds: 4.4%
First potential top-10 opponent: Ruud (quarterfinals)
Zverev leads the best way amongst first Slam title candidates. Per each ESPN BET and Tennis Summary, the 2020 US Open finalist (and 2024 French Open finalist) is the No. 4 favourite within the males’s draw — No. 2 on Djokovic’s facet. However the remaining step in his profession development has remained elusive so far. The five-set loss to Alcaraz within the French Open remaining despatched him to 2-10 all-time in five-setters in opposition to top-20 foes. It is arduous to win a Slam with out having the ability to go the gap.
Daniil Medvedev
ESPN BET odds: +1600 | Tennis Summary odds: 4.4%
First potential top-10 opponent: Sinner (quarterfinals)
His draw is terrible, however few embrace competitors like Medvedev. He is gained 4 of his previous six five-setters in opposition to top-20 foes, beat Sinner at Wimbledon, Alcaraz in final 12 months’s US Open and has reached the finals of this event thrice in 5 years. Even when he loses to one of many favorites, he isn’t going to make it simple on them.
Naomi Osaka
ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Jelena Ostapenko (first spherical)
The betting odds (she’s tied for the No. 6 favourite, per ESPN BET) are a reminder of her upside. She’s a two-time US Open champ and four-time Slam winner, in spite of everything. Nevertheless, her Tennis Summary odds (nearly 0.0%) are a reminder of what she’s nonetheless ready to perform in her comeback. She’s simply 18-16 in 2024 since returning to the tour after giving beginning in 2023. That she’s 6-6 in opposition to top-20 opponents suggests she will nonetheless play at a excessive degree; that she’s 4-4 in opposition to opponents exterior the highest 70 reveals that consistency stays an enormous challenge. Like Gauff, she now returns to a cheerful venue. Is that sufficient to beat a completely brutal draw (Ostapenko within the first spherical, then possibly 2023 semifinalist Karolina Muchova within the second)?
Qinwen Zheng
ESPN BET odds: +2800 | Tennis Summary odds: 2.7%
First potential top-10 opponent: Sabalenka (quarterfinals)
Zheng gained 56% of her WTA matches in 2022 and completed the 12 months ranked twenty eighth. She gained 64% of her matches final 12 months and completed fifteenth and 71% of her matches in 2024. And regardless of getting no factors for profitable the 2024 Olympic gold medal, she’s as much as No. 7. A participant’s trajectory isn’t that steadily upward, however the 21-year outdated is brimming with confidence and now returns to New York, the place she beat Ons Jabeur to achieve her first Slam quarterfinal final 12 months.
Casper Ruud
ESPN BET odds: +6600 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.4%
First potential top-10 opponent: Zverev (quarterfinals)
Ruud does issues his manner. He all however skips grass-court season. He performs as many clay tournaments as attainable, however he additionally reveals up in massive matches. He is 7-3 in opposition to top-15 opponents this 12 months, together with a few hard-court wins. He reached the 2022 US Open remaining in opposition to Alcaraz and had him on the ropes for fairly a little bit of it. He’s simple to underestimate, and he is in Zverev’s quarter, aka the very best place to be.
Others: Felix Auger-Aliassime (2021 semifinalist, +8000), Bianca Andreescu (2019 champion, +5000), Victoria Azarenka (three-time finalist, +4000), Leylah Fernandez (2021 finalist, +6600), Caroline Garcia (2022 semifinalist, +8000), Karen Khachanov (2022 semifinalist, +8000), Karolina Muchova (2023 semifinalist, +4000), Jelena Ostapenko (2023 quarterfinalist, +5000), Emma Raducanu (2021 champion, +4000), Andrey Rublev (four-time quarterfinalist, +4000), Maria Sakkari (2021 semifinalist, +4000), Dominic Thiem (2020 champion, +30000), Stan Wawrinka (2016 champion, +50000), Caroline Wozniacki (two-time finalist, +5000)
Extra threats on the ladies’s facet
Elena Rybakina
ESPN BET odds: +900 | Tennis Summary odds: 14.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: Jasmine Paolini or Ostapenko (quarterfinals)
It is odd pondering of the No. 4 participant on the planet as a protracted shot, however Rybakina has had an odd 12 months. She has battled diseases and withdrawn or retired in a number of tournaments. She has misplaced 5 matches at 6-4 or deeper within the third set, she has performed solely as soon as since Wimbledon (an upset loss to Leylah Fernandez), and he or she simply parted methods along with her coach. Rybakina is 2-2 in opposition to the 2 greatest gamers on the planet (Swiatek and Sabalenka), and he or she’s 10-3 in opposition to the highest 20. When she’s dialed in, she’s nearly the very best on the planet. However the missteps make her unpredictable.
Mirra Andreeva
ESPN BET odds: +2500 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: Swiatek (fourth spherical)
She beat Sabalenka on her method to the French Open semifinals only a month after her seventeenth birthday in early June, then went 0-2 in grass-court season. She gained a small July occasion in Romania, went out within the first spherical within the 2024 Olympics after which beat Navarro and Paolini and took Swiatek to 7-5 within the third set in Cincinnati. Andreeva will not be but constant sufficient to search out herself within the prime 10, however there’s nearly little question that she’ll get there. Her serve is bettering quickly — she has no definitive weaknesses — and he or she would possibly get one other shot at Swiatek within the fourth spherical.
Barbora Krejcikova
ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Summary odds: 1.1%
First potential top-10 opponent: Sakkari (fourth spherical)
Within the spring Krejcikova was coping with accidents and dreadful type and misplaced seven of 9 matches. However if you happen to simply preserve swinging, good issues can occur. The 28-year outdated gained three three-setters, together with one over Rybakina, en path to a surprising Wimbledon title, her second Slam. Then she reached the 2024 Olympic quarterfinals as properly. She hasn’t performed since, however she’s a possible future Corridor of Famer and a menace on any floor.
Jasmine Paolini
ESPN BET odds: +3300 | Tennis Summary odds: 0.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: Ostapenko (fourth spherical)
What a summer time it has been for Paolini. She beat Rybakina and Andreeva on the best way to the French Open finals, then backed it up with a Wimbledon remaining run as properly. She teamed with Sara Errani to win doubles gold in Paris, too. At 5-foot-4, she seems to be like a perpetual underdog, however she’s now fifth on the planet, she’s break up 4 matches in opposition to top-10 opponents, and he or she acquired a navigable draw. Paolini could not make one other remaining, might she?
Others: Paula Badosa (+2500), Matteo Berrettini (+5000), Alex De Minaur (+8000), Grigor Dimitrov (+6600), Hubert Hurkacz (+6600), Anna Kalinskaya (+3300), Daria Kasatkina (+5000), Linda Noskova (+8000), Holger Rune (+4000), Diana Shnaider (+5000), Elina Svitolina (+4000), Stefanos Tsitsipas (+4000), Donna Vekic (+6600)