Stanley Cup Final Game 7: Predictions for Oilers-Panthers

It has all come right down to this. After the Florida Panthers opened up a 3-0 lead on the Edmonton Oilers within the 2024 Stanley Cup Closing, many believed the sequence to be all however over.

Then Connor McDavid and his associates outscored the Panthers by a mixed rating of 18-5 en path to tying the sequence up at three video games apiece, changing into simply the third staff in NHL historical past to take action within the Stanley Cup Closing.

Will the Oilers pull off the historic reverse sweep? Can the Panthers keep away from ignominy? This is all the things it’s essential to know earlier than puck drop tonight, together with what’s at stake for every staff, key gamers to look at and superior matchup metrics from ESPN Stats & Info.

Soar forward: What’s at stake?
Gamers to look at, picks
Key stats for Sport 7

What’s at stake for the Panthers?

Repute. And we’re not speaking (underrated) Taylor Swift albums.

The Panthers had been afterthoughts for many of the franchise’s historical past. Florida misplaced within the 1996 Stanley Cup Closing after which made simply 4 playoff appearances — with out successful a spherical — by means of the subsequent 23 years. It was a staff gamers aspired to hitch on the finish of their careers, when it was extra concerning the temperate local weather and fewer about potential to win. And the Panthers have been used to an enviornment crammed with opposing followers capitalizing on their low cost tickets in a sunny locale not available in most hockey markets. A pleasant perk maybe, however hardly a basis upon which to construct a thriving tradition.

That is what Florida has now, although. GM Invoice Zito has methodically crafted the Panthers into a real top-tier contender. He turned Florida right into a President’s Trophy winner and, when that did not translate to postseason success, had the braveness to commerce his membership’s finest participant (Jonathan Huberdeau) for Matthew Tkachuk in a blockbuster swap that may have ended horribly for Florida. Nevertheless it did not. Zito grabbed low-risk, high-reward gamers comparable to Gustav Forsling (off waivers) and Oliver Ekman-Larsson (post-buyout) who’ve performed key roles for them on this dominant season. If final 12 months’s run to the Closing was a fluke, this 12 months’s berth was something however. Florida was imagined to be this good. The Panthers have been meant to be at this pinnacle and supply it repeatedly with their play all through the playoffs.

In the event that they let this chance to be Cup champions slip away after holding a 3-0 lead on this sequence, that is a dagger in additional methods than one. Florida can write a chapter on its historical past now that even 5 years in the past may need appeared like a pipe dream. The one query for the Panthers now could be: Are you prepared for it?

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What’s at stake for the Oilers?

In a phrase, legacy. Edmonton is a kind of locations the place successful simply is not sufficient. There have to be one thing extra about the way in which the staff gained.

The Oilers have not simply gained 5 Stanley Cups. They gained 5 Stanley Cups in seven seasons. They did not merely have nice gamers. They’d a few of the biggest gamers of all time, with one in every of them being the best to ever play hockey. Profitable this explicit Stanley Cup not solely provides to their legacy, however enhances it much more. A franchise that has gone from being the usual to being within the cellar is now a win away from returning to the top; it is an opportunity to drag off what would turn into the best comeback in NHL historical past, and possibly the best comeback in North American skilled sports activities.

The extra sobering reality is that this may very well be the Oilers’ finest and/or presumably solely likelihood to win a Stanley Cup with Leon Draisaitl and McDavid, as a result of there isn’t a assure they’ll get again to this place. Edmonton has gone by means of entrance workplace, teaching, personnel and philosophical modifications to do all the things doable to win with a pair of generational abilities. Profitable Sport 7 and the Stanley Cup would show all these choices appropriate. Not that shedding Sport 7 and the Stanley Cup would condemn each facet of the franchise’s path. However it will result in extra questions at a time wherein Draisaitl is heading into the ultimate 12 months of his contract as he and McDavid enter their late 20s.

Profitable Sport 7 would give the Oilers a possibility to say they gained it regardless what occurs going ahead. Dropping Sport 7 would solely make the trail ahead barely extra painful to navigate understanding they have been this shut. — Ryan S. Clark

Who’s the one key participant you may be anticipating the Panthers?

Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: Sergei Bobrovsky. He went from being a win away from capturing his first Stanley Cup and a Conn Smythe, to now going through questions on what has gone unsuitable with each him and his teammates. Dropping Sport 7 and the Stanley Cup as an entire wouldn’t be totally on Bobrovsky. The Panthers have struggled to defend their zone and have not offered the extent of offensive help wanted to assist any goaltender. That mentioned, Bobrovsky has additionally had his challenges which have compounded the Panthers’ issues. All of it quantities to the truth that Bobrovsky, a two-time Vezina Trophy winner, could be one of many faces of a staff that went from having an opportunity to brush the Stanley Cup Closing solely to be on the opposite finish of what could be one of many greatest collapses in sports activities historical past.

Victoria Matiash, NHL analyst: Carter Verhaeghe. Minus-11 by means of the previous 4 video games, he has one lonely help because the sequence opener. Not so good. The highest-line winger now has one contest remaining to save lots of his staff from struggling a legendary collapse and his personal repute as a clutch playoff performer. Nobody will bear in mind the inferior numbers main in if Verhaeghe manages to tangibly flip it round when it issues most.

Arda Öcal, NHL broadcaster: Gustav Forsling. Because the Panthers have gone, so has Forsling. He was plus-4 in Video games 1-3, minus-5 in Video games 4-6. Will he have the ability to play that shutdown position in Sport 7? Can he include McDavid like he did within the first three video games? Forsling will definitely get his flowers from hockey followers, even when his contributions may not obtain the massive headlines, however they definitely are essential and important to Florida’s success in Sport 7 and in the end elevating the Stanley Cup.

Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: Sam Reinhart. Reinhart has been noticeably lacking on this Cup Closing. One objective and two assists by means of six video games — and 0 factors whole up to now three when Florida had an opportunity to place Edmonton away? That is stunning output from a skater who put up 57 targets within the common season and produced 12 factors in 17 postseason video games previous to the Panthers going through the Oilers. No matter has gone unsuitable for Reinhart to date, he’d higher put it behind him in a rush. Florida wants its finest gamers to match what Edmonton has going from its stars on this sequence.

Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: Matthew Tkachuk. Welp, right here we’re. The prospect for a famous person to have a famous person second. Tkachuk tied with Aleksander Barkov for the staff lead in scoring (22 factors), however you’ll be able to depend on one hand the variety of video games wherein Tkachuk was a driving pressure for Florida. We caught a glimpse of that participant within the Panthers’ Sport 5 loss: Throwing the physique, defending brilliantly and factoring on two targets. That was sandwiched by two minus-3 efforts, together with Sport 6, when his line with Sam Bennett and Evan Rodrigues was a significant dud. A playoff run that has been extra compilation than clutch might be instantly rewritten by an impactful Stanley Cup Closing Sport 7. A damaged sternum value him this type of likelihood in 2023 in opposition to Vegas. That is his second.

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Who’s the one key participant you may be anticipating the Oilers?

Clark: Connor McDavid. The very fact he did not have a single shot on objective in Sport 6 is wild, on condition that he is the sport’s finest and most dominant participant. Nevertheless it additionally speaks to how the Oilers can win even when he does not document a shot or a degree. We have seen the Oilers depend on their complete roster to pressure a Sport 7. If they’ll get one other multipoint efficiency from McDavid along with the secondary and tertiary offense they produced in Sport 6, it might show too overwhelming en path to successful their first Stanley Cup in additional than 30 years.

Matiash: Leon Draisaitl. It will appear a bit weird to look at the Oilers hoist the Cup following a seven-gamer wherein Draisaitl, even badly hobbled, did not rating a single objective. Particularly contemplating his postseason historical past and the handful of current high quality probabilities. One in every of his personal previous Panthers goaltender Bobrovsky, together with a helper much like Friday’s excellent move to Warren Foegele to open the scoring in Sport 6, would go a protracted solution to sealing the deal for Edmonton.

Öcal: The apparent reply right here is McDavid, however I will go along with Draisaitl. He has three assists this sequence, which is stunning by his lofty requirements. The Oilers gained their first sport with out McDavid registering a degree or a shot in Sport 6, however the Oilers additionally pushed this to Sport 7 with out Draisaitl being the second-best participant on the staff, which he often is. He had flashes of his traditional self Friday; what if Monday is “The Draisaitl Sport”?

Shilton: Zach Hyman. We won’t say Hyman is underrated, per se. However he has 16 targets within the playoffs (essentially the most by any energetic participant in a single postseason), and he tends to mild the lamp in a well timed trend in addition. That is going to be key for Edmonton in Sport 7. Florida might be zeroed in on containing McDavid and Draisaitl, which ought to proceed to offer Hyman alternative to do his factor. If the Oilers want a constant efficiency in any aspect of the sport, they’ll depend on Hyman to ship. And he is simply enjoyable to look at.

Wyshynski: Stuart Skinner. ​​Have been it not for McDavid rewriting the document books, Skinner would have a legit declare to the Conn Smythe Trophy for his late-series mastery in each spherical. Skinner has a 10-0 document, a 1.50 goals-against common and a .940 save proportion in Video games 4-7 within the postseason. He is 5-0 when going through elimination this postseason, solely the eighth goalie to win 5 elimination video games in a single postseason. In Edmonton’s previous three wins, he has a 1.67 GAA and a .942 save proportion. Heck of a Mario Kart participant, too.

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The ultimate rating might be _____.

Clark: 4-3 Oilers. For one, that rating line depicts the quantity of video games gained by every staff within the Cup Closing. Even with that prediction, there are questions. The Oilers have averaged six targets over their previous three video games in opposition to the Panthers. Can they’ve one other offensive outburst, or will the Panthers have lastly discovered a solution? Then there’s one other query going through the Panthers with this state of affairs: Can they create the type of consistency that enables them to maintain tempo with the Oilers, or might they be compelled to climb out of what could be one other sizable deficit in Sport 7?

Matiash: 4-2 Oilers. After choosing the Panthers to win Video games 5 and 6, I am nonetheless marveling that we’re even within the place to prognosticate scores for the final-for-sure sport of the season. However give Kris Knoblauch’s crew full credit score for absolutely determining tips on how to chisel its method again into this factor. The optimistic chatter flowing out of Florida’s camp — “feeling optimistic” and “feeling excited” have been phrases uttered to the media — is not sounding as convincing as earlier. Understandably so, because the Panthers have been outscored 18-5 since taking a 3-0 sequence lead.

Öcal: 3-2 Oilers, in additional time. As a result of that is what this sequence wants. It has been a surreal journey to get right here. The cherry on high could be one objective to award the Cup.

Shilton: 4-3 Panthers, in additional time. Pay attention, it will not shock me within the least if Edmonton kilos its solution to a historic Cup victory right here (and extra energy to them if that is the case; what a journey it has been). In any case, I believed (and predicted) the Panthers would shut this factor out two video games in the past. However right here we’re in Florida’s constructing, the place the Cup will not be leaving this time till it is cradled within the arms of a participant who simply gained it. If you speak about massive moments — of the career- or franchise-defining sort — that is it. The Panthers don’t have any excuse. For one final time I am betting that provides Florida a whisper-thin edge over Edmonton.

Wyshynski: 5-2 Oilers. I believed the Panthers would shut out this sequence in Sport 6 as a result of they thrive when being counted out and attending to play the underdog. So there’s all the time an opportunity they channel that at house in Sport 7. However that will additionally require a reversal of fortune for 90% of their roster that has been outplayed by the Oilers for almost all of the sequence. This seems like Edmonton’s second. This seems like Canada’s second. The Oilers simply despatched this factor to a seventh sport without having McDavid to hold them there — that ought to scare the whiskers off the Panthers. Edmonton wins the Cup, makes sports activities historical past and bestows disgrace upon this Florida staff.

Notes from ESPN Stats & Info

Sport 7 quick information:

• Monday would be the 18th Sport 7 in Stanley Cup Closing historical past, and the primary since 2019 (St. Louis Blues defeated the Bruins in Boston)

• Highway groups have gained three straight Sport 7s within the Stanley Cup Closing; house groups are 12-5 all time.

• The Oilers will play of their third Sport 7 within the Stanley Cup Closing (defeated Philadelphia Flyers in 1987, misplaced to Carolina Hurricanes in 2006).

• Edmonton might be enjoying in its thirteenth playoff Sport 7 in franchise historical past, and second this postseason (defeated the Vancouver Canucks 3-2 in Sport 7 within the second spherical). The Oilers are 8-4 general in playoff Sport 7s.

• The Panthers might be enjoying within the fourth Sport 7 in franchise historical past (2-0 on highway, 0-1 at house). The house loss was to the New Jersey Devils within the 2012 convention quarterfinals.

Previous groups to come back from down 0-3 to tie a sequence 3-3

Extra on the Oilers

• Edmonton scored 18 targets over the previous three video games to even up the sequence, tied for the second-most targets in a three-game span in a Stanley Cup Closing. The Oilers held the Panthers to 5 targets throughout that span, giving them a plus-13 objective differential in Video games 4-6, tied with 1984 Oilers (plus-13 vs Islanders in Video games 3-5 to shut out the sequence) for the most important objective differential in a three-game span in Stanley Cup Closing historical past.

• The Oilers improved to 5-0 this postseason when going through elimination, essentially the most such wins in a single postseason in franchise historical past and tied for the fourth most by any staff in a single postseason. Solely the 2014 Kings — who went 7-0 when going through elimination — have extra wins with out a loss in that state of affairs a single postseason.

• The Oilers have current historical past throughout sports activities on their facet. The final house win in Sport 7 within the championship sequence for MLB, the NBA or the NHL was by the Miami Warmth in 2013. That’s six straight Sport 7 wins by the highway staff (2019 World Sequence, 2019 Cup Closing, 2017 World Sequence, 2016 World Sequence, 2016 NBA Finals, 2014 World Sequence). The present six-game shedding streak in Sport 7s throughout the World Sequence, NBA Finals and Cup Closing by house groups is the longest ever. The earlier lengthy was 4 straight between Might 1974 (Bucks misplaced to Celtics) and October 1979 (Orioles misplaced to Pirates). That is additionally the longest hole by way of time. Sport 7 on Monday might be 4,022 days because the Warmth gained at house in June 2013. The earlier lengthy hole was 3,286 days between Oct. 21, 1973 (Oakland Athletics beat New York Mets), and Oct. 20, 1982 (St. Louis Cardinals beat Milwaukee Brewers).

Extra on the Panthers

• The Panthers are going for his or her first Stanley Cup title of their third try (misplaced in 1996 and 2023) and are one in every of 11 energetic franchises to not have gained the Stanley Cup. They’ll turn into the fourth enlargement staff over the previous 40 seasons to win the Stanley Cup, becoming a member of the Lightning (2004, 2020-21), Geese (2007), and Golden Knights (2023).

• With a win, Florida turns into the third staff within the enlargement period (post-1967) to win the Cup the 12 months after shedding within the Closing, together with the 2009 Penguins and 1984 Oilers. Final season, the Panthers misplaced to the Vegas Golden Knights in 5 video games, together with a 9-3 blowout within the Cup clincher.

• General, it is the 18th Sport 7 in Stanley Cup Closing historical past, with the house staff proudly owning a document of 12-5. The previous three have been gained by the highway staff, with the Penguins successful at Detroit in 2009, the Bruins topping Vancouver in 2011 and the Blues beating Boston in 2019. Do not count on a high-scoring contest. Probably the most targets any staff has scored in Sport 7 of the Cup Closing is 4, achieved on 5 events, most lately by the Blues in 2019. Probably the most mixed targets in Sport 7 of a Stanley Cup Closing is seven in 1950 (Detroit 4, Rangers 3).