The Lefsetz Letter: Pearl Jam For Half-Price

“UNEVEN CASH FLOW – Followers of giant rock band left fuming as tickets for stadium present are slashed by 50% after poor gross sales”: https://t.ly/hCCx2

The music enterprise has traditionally been opaque. They are saying one factor when the reality is one other. They’ll let you know they’re including reveals as a result of the earlier ones are offered out, so you purchase further tickets to scalp, however you find yourself discovering out they lied, the earlier present was not offered out, and you may’t lay off your tickets at wherever close to face worth, if in any respect.

However the panorama is altering. Due to data.

Let’s begin with the blue dots. The Ticketmaster website is a plethora of knowledge. You possibly can see what tickets are nonetheless accessible, which of them are for resale, and when J.Lo canceled her tour nobody believed it, as a result of there have been seas of blue dots throughout Ticketmaster.

However that’s not all. Now we now have Twitter websites that provide you with this data and extra. I like to recommend you comply with @underfacevalue and Ticket_Help2022 The insiders do, X offers this data.

So all we’ve been listening to about is ticket costs are artificially excessive due to Ticketmaster, nobody in authorities speaks of provide and demand, however in relation to eating places…

You won’t be following the kerfuffle. Individuals are scalping restaurant reservations in New York. So that they handed a regulation to try to get rid of this:

“Why NYC’s Hottest Eating Reservations Will Keep Unimaginable to Rating – A proposed regulation aimed toward bots and scalpers who cater to wealthy and determined restaurant followers isn’t assured to make getting a sizzling desk simpler.”

Free hyperlink: https://t.ly/dCZaA

I really like this Bloomberg headline as a result of it’s precisely what insiders learn about live performance tickets and everybody within the authorities appears to not. The issue isn’t Ticketmaster, the issue is SUPPLY AND DEMAND!

If you happen to learn this text you’ll discover that the typical spend for dinner at these eating places is $100 to $150. However when musical artists cost the identical factor individuals go NUTS! The identical boomers complaining about Springsteen ticket costs haven’t any downside dropping these quantities for dinner. What offers? Every is an evanescent expertise, and a live performance is perhaps as soon as in a lifetime, the band would possibly by no means come again to your city, you would possibly by no means ever be capable of see them once more!

However nobody is cracking down on live performance ticket scalping, as a result of the scalpers have too sturdy a foyer, they’re organized, whereas the restaurant reservation enterprise is a nascent one.

Rising Brown junior Alex Eisler made 100k promoting restaurant reservations placing in solely half an hour to 2 hours a day. Nature abhors a vacuum. Which is why we now have restaurant reservation scalpers, and live performance ticket scalpers. You’d assume acts would cost what the ticket is value, however no, they’re afraid of being judged, WHY?

As for Pearl Jam… The band broke within the nineties. Their hardcore followers are Gen-X’ers, now of their fifties. They’ve the cash, however sarcastically they’re those who assume twice about paying it.

However we will argue that Pearl Jam is extra of an American act.

However we will say the promoter misjudged the market. That’s what occurred with the Black Keys and J.Lo. What occurred yesterday doesn’t apply to right this moment.

Yesterday, each present offered out. Demand was by the roof. Why not cost extra, in any other case the scalpers will reap the good thing about the unfold.

However it seems the shopper is saying no. This is identical buyer who regardless of listening to advert infinitum how the economic system goes nice, finds meals and different prices far more costly.

They’re holding on to their {dollars}.

So what we’re seeing is a worth correction, in entrance of our very eyes. And the general public is conscious of this. And nobody, NO ONE, likes discovering out the particular person proper subsequent to them paid much less for what they purchased. We’ve discovered to just accept this with airways, however the finish result’s everyone hates the airways, who’ve rigged the system by consolidation and lack of competitors on routes. That is Napster ready to occur. And in actuality, airline costs are coming down too. That post-Covid mania has expired.

So what sells?

Effectively, Noah Kahan is a breakthrough artist. However how many individuals has he really damaged by to? This isn’t an MTV act from the eighties. Most individuals don’t even know his identify. And in actuality, regardless of being within the market for a lot of years, he’s seen as a brand new act, and persons are questioning if it’s value it to put down all this dough.

And in the event you’re working on fumes, out taking part in your biggest hits…

Effectively, hopefully you’re doing it on the shed, the place the promoter has different streams of income apart from tickets, the place there may be oftentimes an inexpensive garden, as a result of in the event you put up your present on the area, GOOD LUCK!

However Taylor Swift reveals offered out and oldsters couldn’t purchase their children tickets so somebody should be at fault.

The reality is Swift was a genius. She put up all her U.S. tickets directly to create mania to ensure she went clear. Sure, the soiled little secret of the earlier tour was she didn’t promote each ticket. However whenever you get caught up within the maelstrom…you don’t need to be overlooked. And by no means underestimate the ability of fogeys. They’re vicious in relation to delivering what their children need.

So what occurs now?

Attention-grabbing query.

As for the common boomer bands… They’re near the top, so everyone is actually questioning whether or not it’s the final time. Nevertheless, individuals have been speculating on the final time for years now. However, these bands have been going out at astronomical costs for a very long time, so the general public is used to it, and they’re real superstars.

What number of acts of the final fifteen years have reached this standing, the place everyone in America is aware of their tunes? Completely nobody. Interval. Nevertheless, there are extra individuals in America than ever earlier than, and music is a novel visceral expertise in a world the place all of us personal the identical gadgets. So it’s a big cult viewers and… Nobody goes to one in all these reveals on a whim, they’re simply too costly.

And why do they hold canceling festivals? Are they too costly or is the lineup not engaging sufficient or each?

And typically you’ll be able to decrease the costs and folks nonetheless don’t need to come.

So in the event you’re planning a tour now… The info is simply coming in. You would put up reveals and do awful enterprise or put up reveals and promote out and need you performed greater buildings at larger costs.

And the place is the federal government on this? Nowhere to be seen.

We’re seeing a correction. The great outdated days are behind us. Are there new good days to come back?

Effectively, we thought when the basic acts handed that everyone can be taking part in smaller buildings, however there are extra stadium reveals than ever earlier than. Audiences are narrower, however they’re very deep.

So right here you discover the essence of live performance promotion. Nothing is assured, it’s a wager. AI ain’t gonna let you know, knowledge solely means a lot, it’s a intestine determination, and nice music hits you in the identical method, the intestine.

However the backside line is individuals don’t need to pay as a lot as they’ve been paying for the previous two years to see most acts. How a lot of that is the act, how a lot of that is the economic system, how a lot of that is music’s place within the panorama?

Let’s ask the federal government. Ha!