UFC 305 predictions — Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya: Fight card, odds, prelims, preview, expert picks

Israel Adesanya goals to grow to be a three-time middleweight champion at UFC 305 when he takes on present champion Dricus du Plessis. “DDP” shall be making the primary protection of the title he received towards Sean Strickland in his most up-to-date struggle whereas Adesanya is seeking to rebound from shedding the belt to Strickland in a surprising upset at UFC 293.

UFC 293 was speculated to function Adesanya defending the belt towards du Plessis, however du Plessis was not able to compete after defeating Robert Whittaker in a title eliminator two months prior. That opened the door for Strickland to upend issues at 185 kilos.

Now, Adesanya and du Plessis face off after a rivalry that has featured some sadly ugly moments through which the 2 fighters, each African-born, have exchanged phrases over which is the “actual African.” Adesanya was born in Nigeria earlier than his household moved to New Zealand whereas du Plessis is South African-born and nonetheless fights in another country.

The co-main occasion sees former flyweight title contender Steve Erceg taking up former interim title challenger Kai Kara-France in what might be probably the most high-action struggle on the cardboard.

With a lot occurring on Saturday night time, let’s take a more in-depth have a look at the total struggle card with the newest odds earlier than we get to our workers predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 305 struggle card, odds

• Israel Adesanya -120 vs. Dricus du Plessis (c) +100, middleweight title
• Steve Erceg -160 vs. Kai Kara-France +135, flyweights
• Mateusz Gamrot -350 vs. Dan Hooker +275, lightweights
• Jairzinho Rozenstruik -220 vs. Tai Tuivasa +180, heavyweights
• Carlos Prates -350 vs. Li Jingliang +275, welterweights
• Junior Tafa -130 vs. Valter Walker +110, heavyweights
• Josh Culibao -140 vs. Ricardo Ramos +120, featherweights
• Terez Bleda -150 vs. Casey O’Neill +125, girls’s flyweights
• Jack Jenkins -700 vs. Herbert Burns +500, featherweights
• Tom Nolan -1200 vs. Alex Reyes +750, lightweights
• Tune Kenan -175 vs. Ricky Glenn +145, welterweights
• Stewart Nicoll -240 vs. Jesus Aguilar +200, flyweights

With such an enormous most important occasion on faucet, the crew at CBS Sports activities went forward with predictions and picks for the principle card. Listed below are your choose makers: Brent Brookhouse (Fight sports activities author), Brian Campbell (Fight sports activities author), Shakiel Mahjouri (author), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Clever (senior editor).

UFC 305 picks, predictions

du Plessis vs. Adesanya

Campbell: If the 35-year-old Adesanya proves unable to harm du Plessis and actively power him to disengage, this might be a tough night time for the previous champion. Not solely is Adesanya coping with the calls for of age and an 11-month layoff that’s the longest of his UFC profession, he should take care of the psychological toll of getting misplaced two of his final three fights (which left many questioning him getting this title shot). Adesanya was stopped by Alex Pereira and broadly outpointed by Sean Strickland after being dropped within the opening spherical. Contemplating du Plessis, a small betting underdog, also can convey the struggle to the bottom through the use of his large construct as a huge middleweight, there are sufficient causes to consider that Adesanya’s window is closing quick in his bid to grow to be the UFC’s first three-time middleweight king. And all indicators have pointed lately to proper now being DDP’s time. 

Brookhouse: It is solely affordable to suppose Adesanya ought to win, and probably win simply. Had been this the Adesanya of some years in the past, I would think about that one thing of a lock, whereas anticipating the struggle to look just like Adesanya’s humiliation of Paulo Costa. Like Costa, du Plessis is a heavy-handed pressure-based fighter, although du Plessis applies his aggression a bit extra successfully. Nevertheless it’s arduous to shake the picture of Adesanya wanting like a person who could not work out methods to pull the set off towards Sean Strickland his final trip. Time catches up particularly arduous to preternaturally gifted strikers and that might have been the struggle the place Adesanya went by way of a change just like that of late-career Roy Jones Jr. Till I am given motive to consider that was a one-off exhibiting and never the brand new regular for Adesanya, I lean towards du Plessis placing a lot strain that he simply brute forces his option to a profitable title protection.

Mahjouri: It is a arduous struggle to gauge: Du Plessis over-delivers when least anticipated whereas Adesanya fumbled terribly towards large underdog Sean Strickland. Adesanya’s slick motion and counterstriking have stifled different middleweight juggernauts like Yoel Romero and Paulo Costa. Adesanya’s familiarity with du Plessis’ construct advantages him even when the champ’s willingness to stroll by way of the fireplace to muscle opponents round provides me pause. This shall be a fast struggle or an unpleasant one. I anticipate Adesanya’s motion will enable him to steal key rounds, or set him up for a knockout blow, however do not be stunned if du Plessis makes the challenger uncomfortable with ragdoll takedowns and energy punches. I will cautiously take Adesanya by determination in what is going to possible be one final run as middleweight champ.

Erceg vs. Kara-France

Campbell: In his final struggle, Erceg got here as shut as one might come to capturing the UFC’s flyweight title solely to lose the five-round affair — in simply his fourth UFC look — after making a late strategic error. The native of Perth returns simply three months later to struggle New Zealand’s Kara-France, who occurs to be using a two-fight shedding skid. However at 31, and understanding {that a} third straight defeat can be disastrous in the direction of his title hopes, do not rely out the slight underdog’s possibilities of getting again into true title competition. Bear in mind, Kara-France was seemingly on his option to defeating former champion Brandon Moreno two fights in the past of their interim title struggle in 2022 solely to be stopped in Spherical 3 by a brutal physique kick (that was adopted up by split-decision loss to rising contender Amir Albazi). Kara-France has thrice the UFC expertise of Erceg and must be motivated to aggressively search a end so as to maintain issues out of the judges’ palms. 

Brookhouse: Kara-France is an effective fighter, to make sure. However Erceg confirmed so much in his loss to Alexandre Pantoja and will have left that struggle as flyweight champion if it wasn’t for a disastrous determination to go for a fifth-round takedown that really shifted the deciding spherical in Pantoja’s favor. Anticipate Erceg to have discovered from his mistake and to outwork Kara-France to take a call in an entertaining scrap.

Mahjouri: This struggle appears like two flyweight contenders trending in reverse instructions. Erceg opened many eyes with a spirited loss to Alexandre Pantoja in a UFC title struggle that got here prior to anybody anticipated. I anticipate he is discovered precious classes that may profit him towards the flyweight elite. Erceg’s technical putting and robust submission sport must be sufficient to overwhelm Kara-France, who’s suspectable of shedding by KO, submission or determination. Kara-France’s energy is all the time a risk however Erceg’s too good to get caught slacking. Give me Erceg by determination.

Gamrot vs. Hooker

Brookhouse: As a lot as I believe Hooker is a really dwell canine right here, Gamrot’s wrestling sport will possible be an excessive amount of. He averages greater than 5.25 takedowns per quarter-hour of Octagon time. Irrespective of how good Hooker’s takedown protection is, it isn’t so good that he’ll cease Gamrot again and again. If Gamrot decides to try to show a degree by forcing a stand-up struggle, he might effectively be on the receiving finish of an upset with Hooker’s size within the putting sport shifting issues in his favor. Nonetheless, Gamrot ought to win this struggle extra instances than he loses it.

Mahjouri: Hooker is aware of precisely how Gamrot will method this struggle, however I am undecided Hooker can do a lot to cease it. Gamrot is without doubt one of the greatest pure wrestlers in any UFC weight class. The Polish fighter relentlessly chains takedowns collectively, averaging practically three a spherical. Hooker is a ferocious striker. Naturally, he is diligently educated his takedown protection to help his offensive objectives. Gamrot lacks the highest management and submission prowess that buoyed Islam Makhachev to a dominant win over Hooker in 2021, however Gamrot has the instruments to neutralize Hooker’s sport. Gamrot will discover himself in bother periodically however ought to be capable to overcome it and restore the grappling benefit.

Who wins UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya, and the way precisely does every struggle finish? Go to SportsLine now to get detailed picks on UFC Combat Night time, all from the MMA skilled who profited greater than $1,200 on UFC main-card picks, and discover out.