The 2024 NFL season kicks off Thursday night time with the defending Tremendous Bowl champion Kansas Metropolis Chiefs internet hosting the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs opened as 3-point favorites over the Ravens within the rematch of the AFC Championship Sport, which is the place the road presently sits, with the whole at 46.5.
Odds present as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The traces
Unfold: Chiefs (-3)
Moneyline: Chiefs (-150), Ravens (+130)
Over/below: 46.5
First-half unfold: Chiefs -2.5 (+115), Ravens +2.5 (-145)
Chiefs complete factors: over 24.5 (Even), below 24.5 (-130)
Ravens complete factors: over 21.5 (-115), below 21.5 (-115)
The props
Passing yards
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Patrick Mahomes complete passing yards: over 269.5 (-115), below 269.5 (-115)
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Lamar Jackson complete passing yards: over 221.5 (-115), below 221.5 (-115)
Passing touchdowns
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Mahomes complete passing touchdowns: over 1.5 (-180), below 1.5 (+145)
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Jackson complete passing touchdowns: over 1.5 (+135), below 1.5 (-170)
Dashing yards
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Isiah Pacheco complete dashing yards: over 58.5 (-115), below 58.5 (-115)
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Derrick Henry complete dashing yards: over 63.5 (-115), below 63.5 (-115)
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Jackson complete dashing yards: over 47.5 (-110), below 47.5 (-120)
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Mahomes complete dashing yards: over 20.5 (-110), below 20.5 (-120)
Receiving yards
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Travis Kelce complete receiving yards: over 57.5 (-120), below 57.5 (-110)
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Zay Flowers complete receiving yards: over 52.5 (-115), below 52.5 (-115)
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Mark Andrews complete receiving yards: over 48.5 (-115), below 48.5 (-115)
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Rashod Bateman complete receiving yards: over 28.5 (-120), below 28.5 (-110)
Choose of the sport: below 46.5
Whereas this matchup options two of the league’s most explosive offenses, I am eyeing the below 46.5 for Thursday night time, primarily due to the formidable defenses that will probably be on show. Each defensive items are elite, with the Ravens and Chiefs ending as the highest two scoring defenses final season.
The Ravens led the NFL in sacks and takeaways, whereas Baltimore’s secondary has one of many league’s greatest safeties in Kyle Hamilton. Hamilton, alongside cornerback Marlon Humphrey, can disguise coverages successfully, doubtlessly forcing Mahomes to carry the ball longer and rising the probabilities of sacks or hurried throws.
The Chiefs’ defensive energy is the cross rush, led by Chris Jones and George Karlaftis, who mixed for a powerful 21 sacks final season. Baltimore’s offensive line may very well be a possible weak point in 2024, with questions across the inexperience of latest gamers. The Ravens return solely two starters, which might influence cross safety.
Kansas Metropolis’s receivers additionally stay a query mark. Whereas the Chiefs added speedster Xavier Worthy by means of the draft, he is nonetheless an unproven rookie. In the meantime, Jackson will probably be working behind youthful expertise and with a brand new operating again in Derrick Henry. Henry ought to assist with ball management, however it could take a while for the offense to jell utterly.
The Ravens’ skill to restrict large performs and drive brief passes, coupled with the Chiefs’ cross rush doubtlessly exploiting Baltimore’s inexperienced offensive line, might hold the scoring in examine. These elements, together with each groups present process offensive changes, level towards the whole staying below 46.5 for this season opener. — Pamela Maldonado
Betting developments
Courtesy ESPN Stats & Information
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Jackson is 12-1-1 ATS in his profession as a regular-season underdog, the most effective document of any quarterback within the Tremendous Bowl period (minimal 5 begins). He’s 10-4 outright, the most effective document of any quarterback with a minimum of six begins as an underdog.
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Jackson is 25-11-2 ATS on the street in his profession within the common season.
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The Ravens are 12-4 ATS in Week 1 below John Harbaugh (7-1 ATS previous eight seasons), the second-best mark of any head coach within the Tremendous Bowl period with a minimum of 10 video games (Tom Flores, 10-2).
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Reigning Tremendous Bowl champions are 0-3 ATS in Week 1 previously three seasons with back-to-back outright losses. They have been 13-4-3 ATS over the earlier 20 seasons.
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The Ravens completed 13-4 final season. The final 13-win workforce to be a minimum of a 3-point underdog in Week 1 the next season was the 2013 Falcons (+3.5 at Saints, and misplaced by 6).
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The Ravens have been 11-6 ATS final season, overlaying video games by a median of 8.2 factors per recreation. It was the second-highest common cowl margin over the previous decade, solely behind the 2019 Ravens (10.3 PPG).
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Unders have been 11-6 in Chiefs video games final season (13-8 together with playoffs).
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Prime-time unders are 70-42-1 over the previous two seasons (35-23 final season).