The 2025 Emirates NBA Cup quarterfinals kick off Tuesday after group play concluded Nov. 28. Four matchups will decide who punches a ticket to the semifinals in Las Vegas on Saturday.
First, the Miami Heat visit the Orlando Magic before the Toronto Raptors host the New York Knicks. The winner of each game will represent the East. The Western Conference matchups are on Wednesday, when the 23-1 Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Phoenix Suns and the Los Angeles Lakers will host the San Antonio Spurs.
The Magic will have to advance without star Franz Wagner, who left Sunday’s game because of a high ankle sprain. The good news for the Magic, though, is that Paolo Banchero is back from a groin injury he suffered on Nov. 12. In the West, Luka Doncic is back for the Lakers after missing two games for the birth of his daughter. And while LeBron James saw his 1,297-game streak come to an end on Thursday, he and the Lakers have the chance to become the first two-time NBA Cup champions.
Can anyone stop the Thunder in the West? And will Wagner’s injury dash Orlando’s hopes of reaching Las Vegas? Our NBA Insiders answer the biggest questions ahead of the quarterfinal matchups.
Eastern Conference
How will Franz Wagner’s injury affect the Magic against the Heat and moving forward?
Orlando was finally whole — for a game.
The Magic waited 23 days for star Paolo Banchero’s return from a groin strain on Friday. Less than 48 hours later, Franz Wagner sustained a left high ankle sprain, dramatically changing Tuesday’s NBA Cup quarterfinal. Though the Magic received the best news possible on Wagner’s injury — an MRI showed no structural damage, sources told ESPN — Orlando will face its in-state rival without its steadiest player. Wagner is averaging 22.7 points, a career-high 6.1 rebounds and has improved his 3-point shooting from 29.5% last season to 36.0%, a big reason the Magic were able to go 7-3 without Banchero.
Instead of being able to work his way back, Banchero will need to shoulder the offensive load immediately, supplemented with scoring and outside shooting from Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs. Anthony Black has already played a major role this season, and his versatility will be vital for the Magic to survive without Wagner for potentially the next two to four weeks. Wagner had 32 points in Friday’s 106-105 win over Miami, while the returning Banchero added nine points on only eight shots in 20 minutes. After 16 points on 11 shots across 24 minutes in Sunday’s loss to the Knicks, Banchero’s offense is slowly trending up ahead of the Cup quarters.
Though Orlando will be without one of its top scorers, Miami guard Tyler Herro (toe) is probable and Davion Mitchell (groin) is expected to play. The Heat have lost four of their past five games, but Herro’s potential return and Wagner’s injury could provide the boost Miami needs to reach Vegas. — Ohm Youngmisuk
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Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic: Game Highlights
Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic: Game Highlights
Did the Knicks bring their scorching offense, and will Karl-Anthony Towns be part of it?
New York’s offense has been a machine through the team’s first 23 games — third in the NBA in efficiency and fourth in made 3-pointers per game. The Knicks are also running into the Raptors at just the right time, as Toronto has dropped five of its past six games after a torrid 13-1 stretch that vaulted them up the conference standings. To make matters worse, the Raptors will be without forward RJ Barrett, who the team announced is sidelined at least another week because of a knee sprain.
But for the Knicks, there’s only one problem: This NBA Cup quarterfinal is in Toronto. The Knicks morph into a league average offense away from Madison Square Garden (just 3-6 on the road).
New York might also be without big man Towns, who is questionable because of a calf injury that held him out of Sunday’s win. Getting OG Anunoby back — the two-way force played 23 minutes Sunday against the Magic after sitting out nine games because of a hamstring strain — doesn’t quite feel as good if Towns’ injury turns into more than a one-game respite.
Towns hasn’t had the greatest season to date. All of his offensive numbers are down from last season, his first in New York after being traded by the Minnesota Timberwolves on the eve of training camp. Perhaps it’s the adjustment to new coach Mike Brown’s offense, in which Towns is getting the ball in different spots, and others are being featured more prominently as playmakers, such as forward Mikal Bridges. — Vincent Goodwill
Road to the semifinals
Miami and Orlando played a Cup quarterfinal preview just last week, with the Magic sneaking out a 106-105 victory at home in Banchero’s first game back from injury. (The Magic also beat the Heat at home on opening night.)
Both Florida teams were scorching last week but have since cooled off: Orlando went on a 9-2 run before dropping two of its past three games, while Miami followed a six-game win streak with a 1-4 stretch.
Toronto is also stumbling into the Cup quarterfinals, having lost five of its past six games after a nine-game winning streak. But the Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season, entering the week on a 7-1 run — granted, with the aid of a favorable schedule. Five of the Knicks’ past seven wins have come against teams with losing records; the only exceptions are Orlando and Toronto, which the Knicks blew out 116-94 on Nov. 30.
These two East quarterfinals are also potential playoff previews. The conference’s jumbled standings are likely to shift many times between now and the end of the regular season, but projections from ESPN’s Basketball Power Index now peg Orlando as Miami’s most likely first-round opponent, and New York as Toronto’s most likely foe. — Zach Kram
Western Conference
Will the Thunder ever lose again?
That’s a bit hyperbolic, but Oklahoma City is a juggernaut of historical proportions. The Thunder, despite ranking second leaguewide in games missed because of injury, are the third team in NBA history to win at least 23 of their first 24 games, joining the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors and 1969-70 New York Knicks. Oklahoma City has an average point differential of plus-16.1 points, which is on pace to shatter its own record of plus-12.9 set last season. The Thunder have won 15 straight games since their lone loss of the season, which occurred in Portland on Nov. 5, when the Trail Blazers rallied from a 22-point deficit to beat an Oklahoma City squad that was without several core players on the second night of a back-to-back.
Phoenix gave OKC as much of a scare as any opponent since that loss, slicing a 15-point deficit to one in the final minutes of the Nov. 28 Cup group stage finale at Paycom Center. Then Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 10 of his game-high 37 points in the final 2:40.
It’s an accomplishment just to make the reigning MVP play in the fourth quarter this season, something Gilgeous-Alexander has done only 11 times. But keeping it close only brings out the best in the Thunder, whose plus-41.4 net rating in clutch situations (score within five points in the final five minutes or overtime) is by far the best in the league. — Tim MacMahon
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SGA leads Thunder to 19-1 record with 37-point game
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tallies 37 points and 8 assists in the Thunder’s win over the Suns.
Can the Spurs handle Luka Doncic and the Lakers without Victor Wembanyama?
It’s possible, but it won’t be easy. Despite San Antonio playing with a healthy Wembanyama, Doncic lit up the Spurs’ defense for a near triple-double with Stephon Castle taking on most of the responsibility of guarding him. Despite the Lakers finishing on a 21-0 run, San Antonio still had a chance to tie the score with 0.2 seconds left — but Julian Champagnie missed two free throws. Second-chance scoring figured prominently in the first matchup between the teams, with Los Angeles outscoring San Antonio 28-11 in that department.
Lakers big man Deandre Ayton shot 9-of-13 for 22 points and pulled down 10 rebounds while Wembanyama spent most of the game in foul trouble before eventually fouling out. The Frenchman isn’t expected to participate in this matchup as he recovers from a strained calf. Veteran big man Luke Kornet, who averaged 2.1 blocks with a game-saving swat on Dec. 3 at Orlando, probably will anchor San Antonio’s defense. Kornet, a free agent addition who has helped the Spurs post a 7-2 record without Wembanyama, flat-out battles in the paint and should fare well against Ayton.
San Antonio probably won’t have any more answers for Doncic and could have to choose between allowing him to either score or facilitate. That’s a task made even more difficult with LeBron James, who was sidelined during the teams’ first matchup, back in the lineup. — Michael C. Wright
Road to the semifinals
After losing the 2024 NBA Cup finals to the Milwaukee Bucks, the Thunder are the clear favorites this time amid a 23-1 start to the season.
We could see playoff previews in the West bracket. ESPN BPI projections currently show Phoenix as the Thunder’s most likely first-round opponent and suggest either the Lakers or Spurs as plausible second-round matchups.
Although a Suns win would be a huge upset, the semifinal in Vegas could provide the Thunder a greater challenge. The Lakers would be the de facto home team on a neutral court, and the Spurs’ breakthrough campaign led by a budding superstar is reminiscent of where Oklahoma City was two years ago.
The Lakers did hand the Thunder their largest loss during the 2024-25 regular season, winning 126-99 in Oklahoma City in April behind 30 points from Doncic. The Thunder responded with a comfortable win over L.A. two days later, but Doncic’s size and skill has always made him a difficult matchup for Oklahoma City (and everybody else).
A Spurs-Thunder matchup would potentially renew the rivalry between Chet Holmgren and Wembanyama, which dates to the 2021 FIBA U19 World Cup final, if the latter is back from the left calf strain that has kept him out since Nov. 17. Because of injuries, the two skilled young centers have met only once since their rookie seasons. Wembanyama struggled in that game, scoring six points on 1-of-5 shooting in October 2024. — Kevin Pelton