Blake Krass breaks down his best bet for the 2026 Qatar Open Final between Carlos Alcaraz and Arthur Fils.
The No. 1 player in the world, Carlos Alcaraz, takes on the No. 40 player in the world, Arthur Fils, in the Qatar Open Final on Saturday.
Alcaraz is a -640 favorite to win, while Fils is +482 to pull off the upset. This is my best bet to target on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Alcaraz vs. Fils match.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Arthur Fils Preview
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have been battling for supremacy in men’s tennis over the last couple of years. However, the first two months of 2026 have made it clear that Alcaraz is the best player in the world. He finally won his first Australian Open, the one major venue where Sinner had clearly been better than him over the years. That clinched the career Grand Slam for Alcaraz and vaulted him to another level of historical relevance. Now, in both of their first tournament since the Australian Open, Sinner has been upset by Jakub Mensik, while Alcaraz is through to play for his first-ever Qatar Open title.
This would be the biggest win of Arthur Fils’ career if he could pull off the upset. The 21-year-old Frenchman had a strong start to his 2025 season, making the third round at the Australian Open and both quarterfinals of the Sunshine Double. He reached as high as No. 14 in the world rankings before a back injury derailed the rest of his season. Fils now has a chance to take down the No. 1 player in the world and win his third career ATP 500 title. Fils has a big serve and a powerful forehand that will allow him to hang in points with the great Carlos Alcaraz. This is a huge test for Fils, but the youngster will not go down without a fight.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Arthur Fils Pick, Best Bet
Carlos Alcaraz and Arthur Fils have faced each other twice in the past, both in 2025. Alcaraz defeated Fils both times. The first time, Fils pushed it to three sets, then Alcaraz won in two sets in the second match. Both of those matches came on clay, while this final will be held on hardcourt.
My best bet for this match is for Carlos Alcaraz to win in three sets. Alcaraz seems like an unstoppable force to start this year. However, he has not dominated his way through this tournament by any means. Karen Khachanov pushed Alcaraz to three sets, and in two of his other three matches, Alcaraz had to win a tiebreaker to win in two sets. Fils has a powerful serve and could have one flawless set where he takes Alcaraz down. The first time these two faced off, Fils won the first set and then pushed the second set to a score of 7-5. Fils has the capability to play with Alcaraz. I’m backing him to steal one set before Alcaraz goes on to win the match.