Yet another poll shows U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds lapping the field in the Republican race for Governor — with Democrat David Jolly likely waiting in November.
The James Madison Institute survey puts the Naples Congressman on the doorstep of majority support, with 49% of Republican likely voters behind him.
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins runs a clear second at 18% — one of his strongest showings in a public poll to date.
Former House Speaker Paul Renner also outperforms most other public polling, at 8% among likely voters, while businessman James Fishback turns in one of his weakest showings, at just 4%.
Donalds’ support dips only one point among all registered voters, and he holds a plurality even among those considered unlikely to vote, with 28% backing him; Renner takes 12% of that group and Collins 10%. For a candidate with every material advantage, that’s a sign Donalds is closing strong — and that assertions the contest is a two-man race between him and another candidate aren’t supported by the data.
Age breakdowns are available only for registered voters, but the poll suggests Fishback is losing the young voters said to be his base: he draws just 5% of voters under 25. Donalds takes 61% of that group.
JMI also offered one of the few public looks at the Democratic Primary race, where Jolly, a former Republican Congressman, has 42% support among registered voters and 47% among likely voters.
His closest competition is Dayna Foster, at 5% among registered voters and 4% among those more certain to show up. In either scenario, more than 40% say they are undecided — though Jolly has been treated as the presumptive nominee since Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings left the race after a cancer diagnosis earlier this year.
JMI also tested two General Election scenarios, pitting Jolly against Donalds and Collins. The Democrat trails in both, but runs far more competitively than Charlie Crist did against Ron DeSantis four years ago.
Among registered voters, Donalds bests Jolly 40% to 36%. The lead stretches to 45% to 38% among likely voters.
During a radio hit Wednesday, Donalds acknowledged that “coming into this election cycle” his team “knew that it would be tougher,” but said people “still want common-sense conservative policies.”
“We have a good lead now, but we want it to be better,” he added, promising to “engage every voter in the state, every household in the state.”
Collins, though unlikely to be the nominee, performs nearly as well. He leads Jolly 40% to 37% among all voters and 44% to 39% among likely voters.
In both scenarios, the potential Republican nominee holds more than 75% support in his own party, while Jolly sits at or above 80% among Democrats no matter who he faces.
Where Jolly dominates is with independents. He leads Donalds 36% to 19% and Collins 34% to 21%, with more than 40% of no-party affiliation voters undecided in either matchup.
Targoz Market Research conducted the survey of 1,400 Florida registered voters July 20-26. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.62 percentage points.