Sam Connon takes you through his preview, prediction and pick for Monday’s men’s college basketball game between Abilene Christian and Tarleton State.
The Abilene Christian Wildcats (12-13) and Tarleton State Texans (12-13) are set to face off on Monday night, going head-to-head at Wisdom Gym. The WAC showdown will tip off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
The Texans are 1.5-point home favorites with -125 moneyline odds, and the total has been set at 133.5 points. Here is a preview of the conference matchup, featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Abilene Christian at Tarleton State Preview, Prediction
Abilene Christian Preview
The Wildcats got pummeled by then-No. 1 Arizona and then-No. 10 BYU back in December, but they went 8-3 across the rest of nonconference action. Once WAC play got underway, Abilene Christian opened 2-1 by besting Tarleton State on the road in early January. It followed that up with a seven-game losing streak, although it has rebounded with back-to-back wins over UT Arlington and Tarleton State, again.
Former JUCO forward Bradyn Hubbard has been the driving force for Abilene Christian’s offense with his 15.8 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. The Wildcats’ next-most effective scorer is guard Rich Smith, who is averaging 9.5 points to go along with his team-best 4.5 assists per game. Guard Cbo Newton isn’t far behind at 9.2 points per game, but he scored 15 against the Texans on Saturday compared to Smith’s zero. Guards Yaniel Rivera, Zy Wright and Joseph Venzant, forward Joseph Scott and center Cade Hornecker are averaging 5.0-plus points per game, too.
Abilene Christian’s opponents take the fewest shots per game in the country, thanks in part to the Wildcats forcing the 10th-most turnovers. And while ACU ranks inside the top-100 in offensive rebounds per game, it is bottom-five on the defensive boards and commits the 15th-most fouls nationally. It also gives up a 37.6% three-point percentage, which is eighth-highest in the country.
The Wildcats rank No. 232 in the updated KenPom ratings, owning the No. 303 adjusted offense and No. 139 adjusted defense. As for the NET rankings, Abilene Christian comes in at No. 201, going 0-2 against Quad 1, 0-3 against Quad 2, 3-6 against Quad 3 and 6-2 against Quad 4. Monday’s game at Tarleton State constitutes a Quad 3 matchup.
Tarleton State Preview
While the Texans lost all four of their prominent nonconference matchups to SMU, LSU, Baylor and Cincinnati, they did beat Rice by 16 and win their other eight pre-WAC games. Tarleton State started conference play 2-1, but proceeded to lose seven straight, starting with its four-point home loss to Abilene Christian. It also lost to Southern Utah in overtime in that stretch, although it avenged that result a month later. Before their 14-point loss at Abilene Christian on Saturday, only one of the Texans’ eight previous conference losses came by seven points or fewer.
UCF transfer guard Dior Johnson leads Tarleton State with 23.6 points per game on .547/.564/.852 shooting splits, averaging 8.9 attempts from the line and 2.4 attempts from beyond the arc a night. He hasn’t played since Jan. 21, however, due to an undisclosed injury. Super senior guard Cam McDowell ranks second with 13.9 points per game, also shooting 87.8% on free throws. Then there’s sixth-year forward Freddy Hicks with his 9.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game and fourth-year forward Chris Mpaka averaging 8.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. The Texans have had 18 different players take the court this season, dealing with a handful of injuries along the way. McDowell and Mpaka have been banged up, as well.
The Texans rank second in the entire country in steals per game, with their opponents ranking No. 1 in turnovers per game. Tarleton State also ranks top-70 in free-throw attempts, makes and percentage, but it is second-to-last in three-point attempts.
Per the latest KenPom ratings, the Texans rank No. 270 on offense, No. 135 on defense and No. 211 overall. They come in at No. 214 in the NET, going 0-4 against Quad 1, 0-1 against Quad 2, 2-6 against Quad 3 and 6-2 against Quad 4. Monday’s game versus Abilene Christian constitutes a Quad 4 matchup.
Abilene Christian at Tarleton State Pick, Best Bet
According to Bart Torvik‘s model, Tarleton State is projected to win by 6.2 points. Looking at Monday’s 1.5-point spread, alarm bells should go off in terms of value.
Those metrics don’t account for Dior Johnson’s injury, of course, which surely accounts for some of that gap. Tarleton State won without Johnson against Southern Utah on Feb. 7, though, and that came on the road. Additionally, the Texans lost four straight before Johnson went down, so it wasn’t like his scoring prowess off the bench was leading to victories lately anyway. Tarleton State slots in above Abilene Christian in the NET, KenPom, BPI and T-Rank, boasting a superior adjusted offensive rating and adjusted defensive rating. The Texans have also won by at least three in all 12 of their victories this season, so pick the spread over moneyline here.
Tarleton State is playing at home, running the fastest pace in the WAC. It should be able to control the tempo on its own home floor, especially considering a season sweep is on the line. Tarleton State is 29-8 against ACU all-time, including a 16-2 record at home. Abilene Christian owns the series 7-5 since 2020, but it was even before this season. None of the last 23 games between the two have been decided by fewer than three points, either.
Best Bet: Tarleton State -1.5 (-112)
Abilene Christian at Tarleton State FAQs
What time is Abilene Christian at Tarleton State?
Tip-off for Abilene Christian at Tarleton State is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT.
What is Abilene Christian men’s basketball’s record?
Entering Monday’s game vs. Tarleton State, Abilene Christian men’s basketball is 12-13 overall and 4-8 in-conference.
What is the Tarleton State men’s basketball’s record?
Entering Monday’s game vs. Abilene Christian, Tarleton State men’s basketball is 12-13 overall and 3-9 in-conference.
Where are the Abilene Christian Wildcats in the Western Athletic Conference men’s basketball standings?
Going into its game vs. Tarleton State, Abilene Christian is in sixth place the Western Athletic Conference men’s basketball standings.
Where are the Tarleton State Texans in the Western Athletic Conference men’s basketball standings?
Going into its game vs. Abilene Christian, Tarleton State is in seventh place in the Western Athletic Conference men’s basketball standings.