Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) will put new CEO John Ternus center stage Wednesday for his first iPhone launch as chief executive, with prediction traders betting on the words he will use as his reign begins.
It will be the first major iPhone unveiling under an Apple CEO other than Tim Cook since Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone 4 in 2010. Apple’s “Surprise and Shine” keynote begins at 1 p.m. ET.
Kalshi traders are betting on which words and topics Ternus will mention during the keynote. More than $26,000 has traded across 26 contracts.
Foldables and Apple AI Lead
“Fold,” “folding” or “foldable” leads the board at 82%, fitting expectations that Apple’s first folding phone will be the centerpiece.
Bloomberg reports the device will be called the iPhone Duo and start at roughly $2,000, with higher-storage versions potentially reaching $3,000.
“Apple Intelligence” follows at 77%, while “Siri” sits at 56%. By contrast, “OpenAI” or “ChatGPT” trades at just 25%, with “Google” or “Gemini” even lower at 15%.
Reuters reports Google’s AI technology will help power Apple’s revamped Siri, so the low odds suggest traders expect Ternus to emphasize Apple’s own branding rather than the technology underneath it.
‘Ultra’ Takes a Dive
“Ultra” has fallen 55 points to 32% after Bloomberg reported overnight that Apple’s foldable will launch as the iPhone Duo.
Some inside Apple had referred to the device as the iPhone Ultra during development, but the Duo name now appears set for the finished product.
Traders give “afford” or “affordable” just a 20% chance, suggesting they do not expect Ternus to frame a roughly $2,000 phone around price.
“Samsung” sits at only 10%. The Korean company has sold foldables since 2019, but traders expect little acknowledgment of one of Apple’s most important rivals as Ternus introduces its answer to the category.
Watch Traders Get More Specific
The Apple Watch contracts show an interesting shift. “Health” or “fitness” has fallen 17 points to 39%, while “heart rate” has jumped 18 points to the same 39%.
That suggests traders have moved from betting on a broad health pitch toward a more specific feature. Bloomberg reports Apple plans a new Readiness app using data including heart rate and blood-oxygen levels alongside broader health upgrades.
Elsewhere, “Dynamic Island” trades at 22%, “AirPods Pro” at 18%, “AirTag” at 15% and “Apple Watch SE” at 8%. “Tariff” sits near the bottom of the board at just 7%.