The Jap Convention’s top-seeded Boston Celtics (64-18) will face the eighth-seeded Miami Warmth (46-36) within the first spherical of the 2024 NBA playoffs. That is their fourth postseason assembly since 2020. Miami beat Boston within the 2020 and 2023 East finals. The Celtics bested the Warmth within the 2022 East finals.
Extra sequence previews:
Celtics-Warmth | Knicks-76ers | Bucks-Pacers | Cavs-Magic
Thunder-Pelicans | Nuggets-Lakers | Wolves-Suns | Clippers-Mavs
How the Celtics obtained right here
The Celtics fell behind 3-0 to the (once more) eighth-seeded Warmth within the 2023 Jap Convention finals and compelled a Sport 7, avoiding full embarrassment, just for Jayson Tatum’s ankle to sprint their hopes of historical past. They dug themselves the opening and laid in it, a well-known attribute of Boston’s newest contender.
One thing needed to change, and Celtics government Brad Stevens made large strikes, swapping Marcus Good — the heartbeat of that iteration of this group — for one-time All-Star middle Kristaps Porziņģis and filling Good’s function with two-time All-Star guard Jrue Vacation. Boston freed Tatum and Jaylen Brown to imagine management of a splendidly constructed rotation, and a 64-win group lined up behind the All-NBA wings.
Tatum, Brown, Porziņģis, Vacation and Derrick White shaped essentially the most balanced beginning unit within the NBA, waxing opponents by 11 factors per 100 possessions. They pushed five-time All-Star turned sage veteran Al Horford to the bench, the place Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser prolonged the depth to eight robust.
The Celtics clinched a playoff berth on March 14, the East’s No. 1 seed on March 25 and homecourt benefit via the postseason on April 4, constructing a 14-game lead over your entire convention. The tip outcome was a internet ranking (+11.7) exceeded solely by Michael Jordan’s juggernaut Nineteen Nineties Chicago Bulls.
How the Warmth obtained right here
Barely.
The Warmth misplaced a heartbreaker to the Philadelphia 76ers and misplaced Jimmy Butler to a sprained proper MCL of their play-in match opener, after which wanted an undermanned win over the Chicago Bulls to safe the No. 8 seed for a second straight season. This time, it is going to be much more tough to win three straight street sequence to succeed in the Finals, since Butler’s knee sprain will sideline him for weeks (if not more).
Miami let Gabe Vincent and Max Strus, a pair of key contributors, stroll in free company however needed to enhance final season’s roster, which completed the 2022-23 marketing campaign with a detrimental internet ranking. They eyed Damian Lillard in a commerce that by no means got here to fruition, as a substitute pulling the set off on a midseason swap of Kyle Lowry for Terry Rozier. The previous Celtic’s arrival yielded a year-over-year internet acquire of two victories.
For good purpose. Everybody within the rotation performed fewer than 65 video games, besides All-Star middle Bam Adebayo, sharpshooter Duncan Robinson and rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. The rook was a revelation, regardless of the curler coaster, as was Robinson, who added sauce to his sport past a 40% clip from 3. Head coach Erik Spoelstra patched collectively the remaining with underdogs, zone protection and second-year middle Nikola Jović.
We had purpose to imagine Miami would emerge as a critical menace once more. The Warmth lugged a MASH unit to the playoffs, elevating Jaquez, Jović and Haywood Highsmith within the course of, including Rozier and reincorporating Tyler Herro from a foot damage, simply in time for the play-in match. Then, the underside fell out. Rozier suffered neck spasms within the weeks earlier than the tip of the common season, and Butler suffered his damage within the play-in opener. Sooner or later, even the Warmth attain a breaking level. Is that this it?
Face to face
The Celtics swept their regular-season sequence with the Warmth, 3-0.
The Warmth had been with out a number of rotation gamers in all three video games, together with Butler within the third. Boston additionally appeared intent on punishing Miami for final season’s convention finals.
Nonetheless, the Warmth did what they all the time do in opposition to the Celtics, closing a expertise hole with poise. (Besides the second sport, when Boston owned Miami, 143-110.) What modified was the Celtics’ late-game execution. They beat the Warmth within the fourth quarter of their first showdown, 32-23, as Brown and White totaled 26 factors on 9-of-14 photographs within the remaining body of the one comeback they wanted in opposition to Miami this season.
Bear in mind, Brown’s meltdown price Boston the convention finals. He couldn’t cease turning the ball over and stood no probability of main the Celtics as soon as Tatum suffered an ankle damage in Sport 7. The additions of Vacation and Porziņģis afforded Boston the cushion it wanted in opposition to Miami. Every of the Celtics’ 5 starters averaged 16-plus factors (for a mixed complete of 102.3 per sport) in opposition to the Warmth this season.
Then once more, the Warmth in some way remodel right into a juggernaut of grit each postseason, no matter who takes the court docket, so analyzing any quantity of their regular-season conferences is inherently a idiot’s errand.
Matchup to look at
Kristaps Porziņģis vs. Bam Adebayo
The Warmth bullied the Celtics in final 12 months’s convention finals, however Porziņģis offers Boston a wrinkle it didn’t have a 12 months in the past. He has 6 inches on Adebayo and may shoot excessive of Miami’s defensive anchor, both across the basket or from past the arc. Porziņģis can be a large lob goal if Adebayo roams onto Boston’s plethora of paint-attacking guards and wings.
Based on the NBA’s monitoring information, Adebayo spent 16:45 defending Porziņģis this season, greater than anybody however Myles Turner and Mitchell Robinson. In these minutes, Porziņģis scored 41 factors on 16-of-29 capturing (55.2 FG%), because the Celtics scored 136.4 factors per 100 possessions. These are absurd numbers.
Adebayo additionally has the power to bodily overpower Porziņģis. The officers will decide how a lot on protection. Offensively, Adebayo will leverage his muscle and agility to seek out open appears to be like, and he should make them to present Miami’s Twenty first-rated offense (113.3 factors per 100 possessions) a shot in opposition to Boston’s greatest.
Closing lineups
Boston Celtics
The Celtics will shut with their beginning lineup, which, as we’ve got mentioned earlier than, boasts the NBA’s greatest defensive backcourt (Vacation and White), the league’s prime wing duo (Tatum and Brown) and a 7-foot-3 Latvian unicorn (Porziņģis). Did we point out that Horford can change Porziņģis or play alongside him in lineups simply as versatile and/and even larger? They’re a humiliation of riches amongst their prime six.
Miami Warmth
Butler and Adebayo could be the one mainstays of Miami’s closing lineup, besides Butler won’t be obtainable in any respect on this sequence. If Caleb Martin performs something like he did in final 12 months’s convention finals, he’ll be a part of Adebayo. There are selections between Herro, whose protection is a query, and a wholesome Rozier; Robinson, whose capturing forces the Celtics to bend in his route, and Jaquez, who has but to expertise the playoffs; and Highsmith, who was a bit participant final season, and whoever else. For all of Spoelstra’s preparation, he might nonetheless select proper each time and face an uphill battle with out Butler.
Prediction
Celtics in 5. The Celtics are too deep, and the Warmth are too shallow, given the added damage considerations. When it’s important to fear about White, Vacation and Porziņģis going off — with out even accounting for Tatum and Brown’s offensive benefits on the wing — you might be working from an amazing deficit.
Collection schedule (all occasions Jap)
Sport 1: Solar., April 21 @ Boston (1 p.m., ABC)
Sport 2: Wed., April 24 @ Boston (7 p.m., TNT)
Sport 3: Sat., April 27 @ Miami (6 p.m., TNT)
Sport 4: Mon., April 29 @ Miami (TBD)
*Sport 5: Wed., Might 1 @ Boston (TBD)
*Sport 6: Fri., Might 3 @ Miami (TBD)
*Sport 7: Solar., Might 5 @ Boston (TBD)
*if obligatory