Colin Allred’s Chances of Beating Ted Cruz in Texas Senate Race

Colin Allred, the Democratic congressman difficult Republican incumbent Ted Cruz in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, trailed by solely 2 share factors in a ballot launched hours earlier than his deliberate speech on the Democratic Nationwide Conference on Thursday.

Democrats are hoping Allred can unseat Cruz, who narrowly gained reelection in 2018. Texas has been seen as a historically Republican-leaning state however has grown extra aggressive in latest election cycles due to progress in areas like Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and their suburbs, which have trended towards Democrats.

Allred is seen as a rising star and is scheduled to talk on the DNC in Chicago, Illinois, forward of Vice President Kamala Harris’ nomination-acceptance speech on Thursday night time.

A brand new ballot of Texas voters confirmed Allred outperforming Harris within the state. The ballot was performed by YouGov, the College of Houston Pastime Faculty of Public Affairs, Texas Southern College Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland Faculty of Public Affairs. It surveyed 1,365 doubtless voters from August 5 to 16 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.65 share factors.

The ballot confirmed Cruz with a 2-point lead over Allred (46.6 p.c to 44.5 p.c), with Libertarian Celebration candidate Ted Brown profitable about 2.5 share factors. An extra 6.4 p.c of respondents mentioned they aren’t certain who they plan to vote for in November.

On the presidential stage, former President Donald Trump has a bigger lead over Harris, in line with the survey. The ballot discovered that 49.5 p.c of respondents plan to again Trump, whereas 44.6 p.c are voting for Harris, giving the Republican nominee a 5-point benefit. In 2020, Trump beat President Joe Biden by 5.6 factors in Texas.

Allred, a former NFL star, was first elected to Congress in 2018, flipping a suburban seat beforehand held by Republicans. He has sought to painting himself as extra reasonable candidate than Cruz however has confronted questions on his stance on immigration. In the meantime, Cruz has confronted backlash over his stance on different points, equivalent to reproductive rights.

Cruz mentioned in February that he’s Democrats’ “primary goal” throughout an interview with Fox Information.

Different polls performed all through the summer time have discovered Cruz with a bigger lead.

An ActiVote ballot, performed amongst 400 doubtless voters from June 25 to July 18, discovered Cruz main Allred by 8 share factors (54 p.c to 46 p.c). A Remington Analysis Group ballot, performed amongst 589 doubtless voters from June 29 to July 1, discovered Cruz main by 10 factors (53 p.c to 43 p.c).

Newsweek reached out to the Allred and Cruz campaigns for remark through e-mail.

Democrats are defending Senate seats in a number of swing states—equivalent to Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania—and Republican-leaning states—together with Montana and Ohio. The one potential pickup alternatives for Senate Democrats seem like Florida and Texas, however Republicans are seen as having a bonus in each states.

Each are seen by the Cook dinner Political Report as “Seemingly Republican,” that means they’re “not thought-about aggressive at this level” however have “the potential to change into engaged.”

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