Here’s What To Know—And How Likely It Is

Topline

Lawmakers this week are anticipated to approve laws to avert a authorities shutdown that doesn’t embody former President Donald Trump’s calls for for brand spanking new voting restrictions concentrating on undocumented migrants.

Key Information

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What To Watch For

The Home is anticipated to vote on the invoice as quickly as Wednesday, in keeping with a number of experiences. It might then transfer to the Senate for ultimate passage.

Contra

It’s already unlawful for non-citizens to vote in federal elections, and research have discovered it hardly ever occurs. An audit by Republican Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger discovered 1,634 non-citizens had tried to register to vote within the state between 1997 and 2022, however none truly voted. The libertarian Cato Institute additionally decided “there isn’t any good proof that non-citizens voted illegally in massive sufficient numbers to really shift the end result of elections and even change the variety of electoral votes.”

Why Might A Authorities Shutdown Occur?

As a result of lawmakers have but to return to an settlement on a brand new spending plan to exchange or proceed the one which expires when the 2024 fiscal yr ends on Sept. 30. Essentially, the deadlock is because of divided management of Congress, with Democrats narrowly controlling the Senate whereas the GOP holds a single-digit edge within the Home—and a few members of the GOP caucus imagine the get together ought to use the method to push for spending cuts. Congress has narrowly averted a shutdown 5 occasions already up to now yr, as hard-right Republicans have repeatedly leveraged the GOP’s slim majority within the Home to drive their calls for into the finances, derailing negotiations till the ultimate hour. Congress handed the fiscal yr 2024 finances in March, six months after the 2023 fiscal yr ended, with bipartisan help. The Home’s preliminary continuation of the fiscal yr 2023 finances, in September final yr, led to former GOP Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s historic ouster, with a number of among the many small group of far-right lawmakers who voted for his elimination citing an absence of enough spending cuts. Home Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has additionally confronted threats on his job from some fellow Republicans, together with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., over the finances, however they’re broadly seen as unserious.

When Would The Authorities Shut Down?

On Oct. 1 at 12:01 a.m., when the present spending plan expires—except Congress passes a short-term extension to purchase negotiators extra time.

Will There Be A Authorities Shutdown?

It’s unlikely as leaders of each events have expressed considerations about how a shutdown might influence the 2024 election as lawmakers’ votes could possibly be utilized by their political opponents to marketing campaign in opposition to them. “As historical past has taught and present polling affirms, shutting the federal government down lower than 40 days from a fateful election could be an act of political malpractice,” Johnson advised Home lawmakers in a letter Sunday saying the brand new settlement.

Who Is Affected By A Authorities Shutdown?

Federal workers who aren’t deemed important or exempt from a shutdown, corresponding to legislation enforcement officers and a few navy, could be the primary to really feel the impacts as they’d be furloughed or instructed to work with out pay. Most Border Patrol and immigration enforcement brokers would proceed to work, and federal courts and the Supreme Court docket would keep open. Paychecks for lawmakers would proceed, however staffers wouldn’t receives a commission. Previously, Congress has handed laws to permit paychecks for some important staff, corresponding to navy members, to proceed. These working with out pay will doubtless obtain again pay. In the meantime, individuals reliant on Medicare and Social Safety are anticipated to nonetheless obtain these advantages since they’re funded by means of a unique course of.

What Federal Workplaces Would Shut Throughout A Shutdown?

In earlier shutdowns, nationwide parks have shuttered as rangers had been furloughed and amenities closed. The Nationwide Institutes of Well being would even be prohibited from admitting new sufferers or processing grant purposes, in keeping with the nonpartisan Committee for a Accountable Federal Price range. Some Inner Income Service workers may be furloughed, probably leading to a delay of mortgage approvals. Air visitors controllers and Transportation Safety Administration officers may be compelled to work with out pay. The 2018-2019 shutdown prompted widespread air journey delays as some TSA brokers and air visitors controllers referred to as off work. Whereas the State Division would doubtless proceed issuing passports, some passport places of work in federal buildings closed because of a shutdown might additionally shutter.

When Was The Final Authorities Shutdown?

It ran from Dec. 22, 2018 to Jan. 25, 2019, through the Trump administration. At 34 days, it was the longest authorities shutdown in historical past by a major margin, as most shutdowns in current a long time have lasted two weeks or much less.

What Have Trump, Biden And Harris Stated About A Shutdown?

Trump has urged Republicans to let the federal government shut down if the brand new spending plan doesn’t embody the voting legislation, writing on Fact Social Wednesday “if Republicans don’t get the SAVE Act, and each ounce of it, they need to not comply with a Persevering with Decision in any method, form or kind.” Harris has not publicly commented, however her operating mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, blasted Republicans for flirting with a shutdown, telling Spectrum Information he predicts their maneuvering will assist Democrats take management of the Home and regain management of the Senate in November. “They’ll discover out what occurs,” Walz mentioned. Biden has mentioned he would veto any persevering with decision that features the voting provision, referred to as the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, or the SAVE Act.

Additional Studying

Authorities Shutdown Looms—Once more—As Election Complicates Newest Battle (Forbes)

In Nod To Trump, Home GOP Pushes Payments Barring Noncitizens From Voting—However It’s Already Unlawful And Uncommon (Forbes)

Home Passes $1.2 Trillion Price range With Bipartisan Help—Seemingly Averting Authorities Shutdown After Months Of Negotiations (Forbes)