Horses to follow, winner predictions from Steve Kornacki

Based mostly on the Beyer Rankings, Fierceness, with a excessive of 110, towers over the remainder of this 12 months’s subject — that’s a nine-point benefit over his nearest foes.

Furthermore, the 101 excessive for Japan’s Eternally Younger is simply an unofficial estimate supplied by a Beyer figure-maker from a race within the Center East. And the 101 for Mystik Dan got here on a muddy monitor at Oaklawn Park in February; outdoors of that race, his finest quantity is simply 89, suggesting Mystik Dan might have a moist floor to excel (in different phrases: If it rains Saturday, he’ll out of the blue change into a preferred choose).

Horses getting into the Derby with the best Beyer rankings don’t at all times win, however since 2000 six of them have: Justify (2018), California Chrome (2014), Avenue Sense (2007), Large Brown (2008), Battle Emblem (2002) and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000). And a seventh, Most Safety (2019), crossed the wire first however was finally disqualified for interference. All instructed, a dozen horses who’ve crossed the wire first since 2000 got here in with one of many three highest Beyers.

Additionally of be aware: Since 2000, all however two horses that crossed the wire first within the Derby had beforehand posted at the very least a 94 Beyer ranking in a stakes race a mile or longer. The 2 exceptions are two of essentially the most mystifying long-shot winners of all time: Mine That Fowl (2009), who got here in with a finest Beyer of simply 81, and Wealthy Strike (2022), who’d beforehand maxed out at 84. Neither of them ever gained one other race after their memorable Derby upsets. As you’ll be able to see above, precisely half of this 12 months’s subject has beforehand run a 94 Beyer or higher.

Fierceness’ 110 Beyer, together with the nine-point hole to the subsequent finest, explains why he’s the favourite on this race. However lest anybody assume that makes him invincible, take into account that the one different Derby horse this century to enter with such a marked Beyer benefit — Bellamy Street, 12 factors higher than anybody else in 2005 — ended up ending sixth. 

‘Closing fractions’

Credit score for this angle goes to Jennie Rees, a adorned horse racing journalist who handles publicity for Kentucky Downs. As a result of the 1 ¼-mile Derby is often the longest any of those horses have ever run, her concept is that any earlier means they’ve proven to complete powerfully supplies an vital clue about their health and endurance.

To measure that, Rees proposed taking a look at how every horse completed its last pre-Derby prep race, crediting those who both ran the final quarter-mile in 13 seconds or much less or the final three-eighths of a mile in 38 seconds or much less. These benchmarks haven’t been good, however the overwhelming majority of current Derby winners have checked at the very least one of many containers.

Which members of this 12 months’s subject qualify for consideration beneath the “last fractions” idea? For that, we owe deep gratitude to J. Keeler Johnson, a Bloodhorse contributor who carried out some tediously heroic math to plot numbers for every horse. As a result of actual official occasions aren’t obtainable from each Derby prep race, there’s subjectivity concerned right here, and never each quantity cruncher will give you the identical occasions. 

However Johnson provides a meticulous and compelling methodology, and he discovered that eight horses on this 12 months’s subject fail to satisfy both standards: Catalytic, Dornoch, Epic Experience, Grand Mo the First, Only a Contact, Stronghold, Sierra Leone, T O Password and West Saratoga.

Most of them are lengthy pictures — with the evident exceptions of Sierra Leone and Only a Contact, who completed first and second respectively within the Blue Grass Stakes a month in the past. Given his overpowering stretch run in that race, it’s notably shocking to search out Sierra Leone’s title on the record. And a few contend that the Keeneland floor he was operating on that day was biased towards front-running horses — making his means to return from behind and win fairly spectacular, irrespective of the fractional occasions.

Each different horse within the Derby subject checks each “last fractions” containers, aside from lengthy shot Society Man, who misses on one and solely barely makes the minimize on the opposite (a 12.95-second last quarter-mile within the Wooden Memorial). 

The Japan issue

Again in 1989, an American horse named Sunday Silence attained glory by profitable the Derby and the Preakness, the primary two jewels of the Triple Crown. And but, when he was retired from racing, Sunday Silence discovered himself undesirable as a stallion — till a Japanese breeder swooped in and took him to his dwelling nation. There, to an astonishing diploma, Sunday Silence flourished as a sire, primarily serving as the muse for contemporary Japanese racing. 

After many years of regular progress, Japanese-bred horses — most of them direct descendants of Sunday Silence — are exploding onto the worldwide stage, having taken down two prestigious Breeders’ Cup races and the world’s two richest races (the $20 million Saudi Cup and the $12 million Dubai World Cup) in simply the previous couple of years. It appears like a Derby breakthrough is simply a matter of time.

This 12 months, two Japanese-bred horses, Eternally Younger and T O Password, are within the subject. Each descend from Sunday Silence, as did the 4 earlier Japanese-bred horses to make the Run for the Roses: