Today marks the one-month anniversary of a frenetic 2026 MLB trade deadline. What, if anything, has changed since then?
At the time, we did a lot of quick-turn analysis and rating of each move, as well as the deadline as a whole. But none of that was meant to be the final word. It was our best attempt at an initial assessment based on the information we had at the time, while considering the landscape as it stood in MLB when the deadline hit. In reality, it will take years to fully untangle many of the moves made last month. That’s just the time scale of baseball.
One month later, we still can’t make any final proclamations about those moves. The samples are just too small. What we can do is take a fresh look at all that movement by asking a simple question about every team: How has it worked out so far?
In reconsidering the deadline one month in, we’ll keep our focus on the postseason races and not so much the prospects who changed teams, players whose destinies are a long way from being determined. The playoff chase is something different: On the morning of Nov. 1, if not sooner, we’ll know everything we need to know about that.
To sift through the deadline fallout, I developed a rating to sort the teams based on how their fortunes evolved and how their deadline acquisitions have performed. I’ve also grouped them into tiers based on how things have gone.
Tier 1: Contenders whose deadline pickups have helped and whose playoff odds have improved
Atlanta Braves (Post-deadline rating: 108.6)
Playoff% change: +0.3% | Pickup impact: 10.9
The Braves’ deadline would stand out if the only move made by Alex Anthopoulos was to acquire starter Tyler Mahle from the Giants. That’s how good Mahle has been, posting a 1.48 ERA over five starts and rolling up 1.4 bWAR in his first month as a Brave. It’s not really out of nowhere. He has been a very good pitcher for a long time, including last season when he posted a 2.18 ERA in 16 starts for Texas. But he was just 3-9 with a 5.13 ERA for San Francisco before the trade. He allowed five runs in his last start for the Giants — the same number of runs he gave up over his first five starts for the Braves.
Meanwhile, high-energy lefty Brent Suter has been a strong addition to the bullpen. Lane Thomas, the primary addition to the lineup, has struggled, but in terms of a short, quick and much-needed impact, Mahle has thus far been the best pickup of the deadline. As a club, Atlanta has been status quo — which in most instances would be sufficient, but in the Braves’ case, they’re dealing with a white-hot Phillies team running them down in the division race.
Playoff% change: +8.6% | Pickup impact: 1.1
The Blue Jays were on the fence at the deadline, not tearing down by any stretch but keeping the focus on the longer term at the same time. Daulton Varsho and Kevin Gausman were traded, but Gausman was immediately replaced by ex-Angel Jose Soriano in the rotation. Former Cubs prospect Brett Bateman was part of the return for Gausman, and while that was a big-picture move, he was added to the big league roster and so far has played well as an on-base speed guy at the plate and an impact defender.
The Blue Jays have won just enough to remain on the fringe of the American League wild-card cluster, an outcome that justifies their on-the-fence deadline approach.
Playoff% change: +0.3% | Pickup impact: 3.3
The Rays were winning an average of 94 games in the sims at the time of the deadline; that number has since reached 96.1, the sixth-biggest uptick in the majors. Meanwhile, the Rays rank fifth in player impact from their acquisitions. In other words, so far so good for Tampa Bay’s deadline performance. This rating doesn’t even include the apparent end of the Rays’ interminable quest for a new ballpark.
As for those acquisitions, Freddy Peralta has made only two quality outings out of five, but Liam Hicks has hit like Johnny Bench behind the plate and Tyler Wells has been a standout in the bullpen. If Peralta can build on his promising last start — six shutout innings in Detroit — this outlook only gets better.
Playoff% change: +3.2% | Pickup impact: 6.2
The Cubs are second behind Atlanta in deadline player impact, but despite an epic month from the squad’s power hitters, Chicago’s win projection hasn’t changed much. The Cubs’ pitching hasn’t quite kept pace with their hot hitting, though both trajectories have been impacted by the weather at Wrigley Field. Clay Holmes has been fantastic, stabilizing the rotation. The same mostly holds true for Gausman, though the veteran righty has mixed in a couple of so-so outings with three good ones.
Other pickups have had surprising impacts. Outfielder Tyrone Taylor has a 1.027 OPS for his first 19 games for the Cubs, and Aaron Civale’s 1.54 ERA in a multi-inning relief role lessens the disappointment over Ryan Zeferjahn’s early struggles in Chicago.
Playoff% change: 0.0% | Pickup impact: 6.2
Technically, the Dodgers’ postseason odds didn’t go up — but that’s just because there was nowhere else to go: L.A. was at 100% then and remains so now.
The Dodgers’ deadline at this point comes down to Tarik Skubal, who has pitched true to form but hasn’t gotten a lot of support. His ERA over five starts (3.00) along with his lone win doesn’t reflect how well he has pitched, as evidenced by his 2.28 FIP.
The Dodgers have been so-so as a team over this span, which for them is enough to spur plenty of hand-wringing about their ability to pull off a three-peat. All we can say at the moment is that whatever L.A.’s struggles might be, they’re not Skubal’s fault.
Tier 2: Contenders whose deadline pickups haven’t helped but whose playoff odds have improved anyway
Playoff% change: +10.6% | Pickup impact: -0.9
It’s not surprising that the Orioles have a negative pickup impact because they were very much in subtract mode at the deadline. Despite that, Baltimore has played its best sustained baseball all season over the last month, even crawling back to the .500 mark.
Things have gone so well that the Orioles went into late-stage add mode, claiming ex-Met Luis Robert Jr. off waivers just before the cutoff for postseason eligibility. With Pete Alonso leading the way, the Orioles still have a shot at taking advantage of that eligibility. It’s an excellent example of how a team’s deadline behavior doesn’t always correlate to how it plays afterward.
Playoff% change: +34.2% | Pickup impact: -6.9
The Phillies have gone 19-7 since the deadline and improved their win projection in the simulations by more than five wins, easily the biggest uptick of the contending teams. Hard to complain about that.
At the same time, their deadline activity isn’t necessarily directly connected to their results. Luis Arraez has felt like a perfect fit for the Phillies’ lineup, but his actual output so far (.704 OPS) has been modest. Brooks Raley has been fine in the bullpen. Both might still play key roles for a team that has high October aspirations, but so far, the Phillies have been on a roll for other reasons.
Playoff% change: +13.5% | Pickup impact: -2.4
The Rangers are another AL club that has continued to muddle around the .500 mark, but that’s enough, given their division and league, to keep their playoff probabilities trending in the right direction. It’s like treading water even as the tide pushes you closer to shore.
Texas had a quiet deadline as a fence-rider, and it hasn’t gotten much from primary pickups Adam Macko, Chase Silseth and Logan O’Hoppe. The Rangers have continued to work the ends of their roster with depth moves that don’t fall under the umbrella of deadline activity, so it’s not like Chris Young and his staff are just sitting on their hands. But the Rangers were on the fence a month ago and would remain so today if the deadline were a month later. Texas remains a hard team to read.
Playoff% change: +14.3% | Pickup impact: -1.2
Jo Adell has been just what the Guardians needed, while doing the same things he was doing for the Angels. He has been one of the more impactful deadline pickups so far.
Cleveland as a whole has continued hovering around .500 over the last month. Likewise, the Guardians’ additions other than Adell have been mixed. Nathaniel Lowe has had a couple of nice moments, but overall has a 92 OPS+. Foster Griffin has been solid after a rough first start after arriving from Washington. Craig Yoho has gotten frequent relief work, but the ex-Brewer has an ERA over 7.00.
Playoff% change: +29.6% | Pickup impact: -5.5
Despite flagging playoff odds and a roster that seemed to be going stale, A.J. Preller orchestrated an aggressive deadline approach, as he is wont to do, adding Robbie Ray and Casey Mize to the rotation. Ray has been in full-blown Robbie Ray mode since arriving in San Diego, filling up the walks column yet often managing to successfully traverse the high wire. Mize has been all over the place from really good to really not, but overall his Padres ERA is well over 6.00.
Other pickups haven’t played much. So the early returns haven’t been great for the acquisitions, yet the Padres rank fifth in post-deadline run differential and have solidified their playoff odds. They need that momentum to continue and, for that, they figure to need more consistency from their deadline adds.
Playoff% change: +0.1% | Pickup impact: -5.3
Most of Milwaukee’s pickups so far have proved to be organizational depth. Of those who have played much of a role with the big league club, Dustin May has fallen off after two good starts upon being sprinkled with the Brewers’ magic pixie dust, and Antonio Senzatela hasn’t been able to work himself into a high-leverage role.
The good news: The Brewers just keep rolling and look like a good bet to repeat as the National League’s top seed.
Playoff% change: +1.6% | Pickup impact: -5.9
The Yankees’ play has ticked up since the deadline. It’s not because of Brian Cashman’s pickups, in total. Heliot Ramos has hit .148 and managed to get a half-win below replacement in just a month as a Yankee. His rough start has been offset by solid hitting from Luis Garcia Jr. (0.6 bWAR, 133 OPS+). It’s a wash between New York’s two deadline additions.
Nothing much has changed for the Yankees. All season goals remain on the table, and the chances of reaching them might be determined by when Aaron Judge is back and how quickly he can return to form.
Playoff% change: +4.0% | Pickup impact: -4.2
The Red Sox have been just over .500 since the deadline, good enough to nudge their playoff odds in the right direction even though the run prevention has been lackluster during that stretch. Only five teams have given up more post-deadline runs. Surprising addition Erik Miller has been dynamite as a bullpen lefty, so the negative impact isn’t on him. But Curtis Mead was injured in his first game for Boston and Adley Rutschman hasn’t hit. None of this has impeded Boston’s progress, and it would be unsurprising if the second month for the pickups proves to be better than the first.
We should note that if you want to count Jahmai Jones as a deadline pickup, which we don’t because it was a mid-July, DFA-related move, the player impact number would be better. Jones has been off the charts in his role as a lefty-mashing righty bat off the bench, hitting .481/.600/1.037 in 35 plate appearances against southpaws since joining Boston.
Playoff% change: +20.1% | Pickup impact: -7.2
The White Sox have played better than .500 ball for weeks now, good enough to expand their edge in the AL Central race and keep them out in front of the key chase for the circuit’s No. 2 playoff seed.
If Chris Getz’s deadline pickups had done more, the White Sox might already be counting down their AL Central magic number. Joey Bart was injured, preventing him from filling Chicago’s hole behind the plate. Luis Castillo has been even worse for the White Sox than he was for the Mariners, and that’s saying something. Huascar Brazoban not only didn’t emerge as a high-leverage option before going on the injured list, he didn’t look like a big league reliever, posting a 6.30 ERA with a 6.49 FIP. Brenton Doyle’s inability to add much at the plate perhaps contributed to Getz’s late-month pivot to acquire Tommy Pham and Jake Cave. All of these things can improve, and for the White Sox to finish off their amazing Cinderella push, they probably should.
Tier 3: Contender whose pickups have helped but whose playoff odds have dropped
Playoff% change: -30.2% | Pickup impact: 1.1
Arizona has played losing baseball since the deadline, both in the win-loss columns and in terms of run differential. So even though the Diamondbacks remain neck and neck with the Padres in the push for the NL’s last playoff slot, the simulations have started to prefer the hot Padres.
The downturn in Arizona’s playoff chances is an almost exact match for San Diego’s uptick. Arizona made only one deadline move, adding Lars Nootbaar from St. Louis. Nootbaar has played solid ball, enjoying a couple of big moments that have paid off in the win probability component of AXE while getting on base consistently. Still, if the Diamondbacks fall short of the playoff bracket, Mike Hazen’s passive deadline might deserve some scrutiny.
Tier 4: Contender whose pickups haven’t helped and whose playoff odds have dropped
Playoff% change: -0.8% | Pickup impact: -1.6
The Astros haven’t played well since the deadline, and their one significant addition, center fielder Daulton Varsho, has hit so poorly he hasn’t come close to making up for it with his plus defense. Houston has outplayed its post-deadline run differential by a couple of games or this would look even worse.
The Astros were in an add position and would remain so, but that’s not because their roster is close to complete. It’s just how the AL West landscape shapes up. Maybe the roster had too many holes to address at the deadline, but you could argue that if the Astros were going to make only one deadline splash, maybe they should have addressed their rotation.
Tier 5: Teams all but out of contention
Minnesota Twins (101.4)
Pittsburgh Pirates (101.4)
St. Louis Cardinals (99.3)
Miami Marlins (98.9)
Detroit Tigers (89.0)
Seattle Mariners (86.8)
All of these clubs were fence-sitters at the deadline, or at least were flagged as such by their playoff chances. Despite that, the Twins and Pirates added on deadline day, and while the contributions from the pickups of both teams have been encouraging, it hasn’t prevented a bleeding of playoff odds. Together, the Twins and Pirates have gone 22-29 despite the production of additions like A.J. Minter and Dean Kremer (Twins) and Camilo Doval and Kirby Yates (Pirates). At least they tried.
The Cardinals and Marlins both subtracted at the deadline and have gone on much as they did before, remaining on the outer perimeter of wild-card contention, which is better than a collapse but none too inspiring. The Tigers and Mariners, on the other hand, have collapsed one year after they faced each other in the division series.
Tier 6: Noncontenders
Kansas City Royals (111.0)
New York Mets (108.9)
Colorado Rockies (100.2)
Cincinnati Reds (99.9)
Washington Nationals (98.2)
San Francisco Giants (96.8)
Athletics (93.3)
Los Angeles Angels (90.7)
All of these teams appropriately subtracted at the deadline, though the Royals were fairly passive in doing so. Still, they, along with the Mets, have played much better baseball since the deadline, reminding their fans of why they had high hopes when the season began. Of course, that kind of thing can exacerbate the frustrations of a fanbase wondering where these wins were a few months ago. Of the two, the Mets are in more of an overall reshuffling than the Royals, a process that will be aided by what was baseball’s largest haul of prospects during the deadline period.
The Royals, on the other hand, have looked like the offensive team we thought they could be as their lineup has gotten healthier. That has paid off in wins because the completely made-over bullpen has been much more reliable, even as it’s built on the work of recycled veterans like Nate Pearson and future Hall of Famer Craig Kimbrel. It’s a key lesson: If a bullpen mix isn’t working, shake it up sooner rather than later because so much of bullpen management is a constant catching of lightning in a bottle.