LDU Quito will welcome Mirassol to Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado on Thursday for the second leg of their Copa Libertadores round-of-16 tie, with the contest finely poised after a 1-1 draw in Brazil.
A win for either side would secure a place in the quarter-finals, while another draw would send the tie to a penalty shootout, with LDU able to draw confidence from their formidable home record and the challenge posed by Quito’s altitude, while Mirassol arrive looking to end a five-match winless run after a heavy defeat to Flamengo.
Match preview
LDU arrive at the second leg with the feeling that they could have left the Maiao with the advantage. Even playing away from home, the Ecuadorian side created the clearest chances, struck the woodwork twice and produced enough in terms of attacking output to expose the difficulties Mirassol had when defending close to their own area.
The 1-1 draw kept the tie open, but it also reinforced confidence within Gustavo Alvarez’s squad. Since the change in management, LDU have shown more coordinated pressing, improved connections between their lines and have managed to turn ball recoveries into quicker, more sustained attacks.
The Quito factor also carries considerable weight. LDU won all of their home matches during the Libertadores group stage, including a 2-0 victory over Mirassol themselves, and arrive fresher having preserved almost their entire starting line-up at the weekend.
The challenge for the Ecuadorian side will be to convert territorial superiority into a lead on the scoreboard without overextending themselves. As another draw would send the tie directly to penalties, LDU must balance pressure, patience and control of turnovers to avoid giving Mirassol the transitional game that could change the course of the tie.
© Imago / Carneiro Images
Mirassol arrive in Quito at another difficult moment of their season. The team have not won in five matches, have just suffered a 5-1 defeat to Flamengo in the Brasileirao and concerns have grown over their ability to protect the defensive structure once the first wave of pressure is bypassed.
Even so, the Sao Paulo side cannot approach this match purely as a damage-limitation exercise. In the first leg, Mirassol found the net by capitalising on an error in the opposition’s build-up, but spent long periods sitting deep and struggled to prevent LDU from building a sustained presence inside the area.
Their previous experience in Quito also serves as a warning. In the group stage, Mirassol had more possession but made little headway in attack and came under heavy pressure at the Rodrigo Paz Delgado. Now, with the tie still open, they will need to be more compact and pick their moments to push forward more carefully.
The key for Mirassol will be competing without surrendering territory to their opponents at every turn. Sitting in a deep block alone is likely to invite even more pressure; pushing their lines up without shortening the space risks being punished by LDU’s intensity. Finding the balance between defensive organisation and transition will be the path to taking the tie into a more favourable scenario and securing a place in the next round.
For those considering a bet after this analysis, only regulated sportsbooks are recommended — check markets close to kick-off, when the official line-ups are available.
LDU Quito Copa Libertadores form:
LDU Quito form (all competitions):
Mirassol Copa Libertadores form:
Mirassol form (all competitions):
Team News
© Imago / Fotoarena
LDU have Jose Quintero confirmed as absent for the remainder of the season following surgery on his anterior cruciate ligament. Leonel Quinonez and Gabriel Villamil are still subject to fitness assessments, while Alexander Alvarado returned to action at the weekend and is available for selection.
Gustavo Alvarez is expected to restore the starting line-up used in the first leg, having rested almost all of his regular starters against Aucas. Brazilian forward Deyverson is an option from the bench, providing physicality and experience in the competition should the team need to change their attacking reference during the match.
At Mirassol, Negueba remains absent following the serious knee injury he sustained in Quito during the group stage, while Aldo Filho is also unavailable due to a muscular problem. Walter, who has recovered from a thigh oedema, returned to the side and is expected to retain his place in goal.
The main doubt surrounds Edson Carioca, who was substituted early in the heavy defeat to Flamengo. Should he fail to be passed fit, Rafael Guanaes could adjust the attacking trio, with Fernandinho and Alesson as wide options and Bruno Santos retained as the central reference.
LDU Quito possible starting lineup:
Gonzalo Valle; Josue Cuero, Ricardo Ade, Luis Segovia and Jose Carabali; Jesus Pretell, Sebastian Gonzalez and Fernando Cornejo; Janner Corozo, Yerlin Quinonez and Michael Estrada. Manager: Gustavo Alvarez.
Mirassol possible starting lineup:
Walter; Igor Formiga, Joao Victor, Willian Machado and Reinaldo; Japa and Neto Moura; Carlos Eduardo, Fernandinho and Alesson; Bruno Santos. Manager: Rafael Guanaes.
We say: LDU Quito 2-1 Mirassol
LDU Quito appear to be in a stronger position to make home advantage count, with the Ecuadorian side expected to sustain pressure and use the flanks to create opportunities in front of their own supporters.
Mirassol have enough quality to threaten on the counter and from set pieces, but we expect LDU’s greater control of the contest and formidable home conditions to help them edge a competitive encounter.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.