Although foodborne pathogens have been in the spotlight all summer, another highly contagious virus is picking up steam: coronavirus. After a lull since last winter, COVID-19 infections are on the rise again in nearly every part of the country.
As of Aug. 19, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that cases are growing or likely growing in 47 states.
The level of COVID activity is still considered low, nationally, the CDC says. However, rates are increasing quickly across the country, especially in the South and West.
The current spike is not unexpected, according to experts. The SARS-CoV-2 virus can spread year-round, but it has settled into a distinctive seasonal pattern in the U.S. since the pandemic began.
“We’ve had two waves (every year). One in the middle to late summer, and the other during the winter,” Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist and professor of medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, tells TODAY.com.
While the country was focused on a massive outbreak of cyclospora last month, COVID was creeping up too, data show.
Although the respiratory virus may not be top of mind for many Americans, says Schaffner, it’s certainly spreading — just in time for back-to-school season.
Is the U.S. facing a new COVID surge and when will cases peak? Here’s what we know about the latest trends and how to stay safe.
2026 Summer COVID-19 Surge
The U.S. is experiencing the beginning of a late summer COVID-19 wave, experts say. “The national data is beginning to tick up, but it’s not a substantial increase yet,” says Schaffner.
According to the latest CDC analysis, the level of COVID activity in wastewater is “very low” nationally as of Aug. 15, the CDC says.
However, the latest data from WastewaterSCAN, a Stanford University-run infectious disease monitoring program, show that the level of SARS-CoV-2 activity in wastewater is “high” nationwide, with a significant upward trend in the last 21 days.
“We’ve been seeing a pretty steady increase since late June across the (U.S.). So far in August, SARS-CoV-2 concentrations are up 106% compared to July 2026,” Amanda Bidwell, WastewaterSCAN Scientific Program Manager, tells TODAY.com.
The West and South currently have the highest concentrations. California and Texas are among the states reporting the sharpest uptick in cases.
At least 15 states and territories in the U.S. are experiencing active COVID outbreaks, according to an Aug. 17 report from Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative’s data tracker.
“That is troubling, especially if you’re in one of those areas,” Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., assistant professor at Tulane University School of Medicine who leads the PMC.
However, the experts emphasize that the current wave appears to be less severe than what we’ve seen in previous years. In 2025, the U.S. experienced an intense summer surge fueled by the “Stratus” variant, which lasted into the fall.
“We are seeing much lower SARS-CoV-2 concentrations compared to this time last year,” says Bidwell.
During the week ending Aug. 13, nearly 5% of COVID-19 tests came back positive — this same time last year, the weekly test positivity rate was over 9%, per CDC data.
It’s unclear how severe this late summer wave could become or when it may peak. “We’re expecting transmission to peak about a week into September,” says Hoerger, adding that the regional spread could shift as well.
Only time will tell, the experts note. It’s still peak vacation season in the U.S. and millions of children will return to school in the coming weeks, creating opportunities for the virus to spread.
“We need to be very cautious. We’re still only in the middle of August,” says Schaffner.
Which COVID-19 Variants Are Spreading?
The current COVID wave is being driven by a mixture of familiar variants, says Bidwell.
The dominant strain, XFG.1.1, accounted for 22-40% of all cases in the U.S. last month, according to the latest data from the CDC.
XFG is a highly contagious recombinant variant, which overtook the Nimbus (NB.1.8.1) variant last summer, Dr. Albert Ko, professor of public health, epidemiology and medicine at Yale School of Public Health, tells TODAY.com.
“It’s still within the family of past omicron variants (from) this past year, so it’s not a big jump in terms of being different. That’s probably why we’re not seeing a big peak this summer,” Ko adds.
About 15% of cases are being fueled by the BA.3.2 variant, aka Cicada, per CDC data. The heavily mutated strain emerged earlier this year and began spreading rapidly worldwide. However, Cicada hasn’t seemed to take off in the U.S., the experts note.
While there hasn’t been a major shift or mutation in the latest variants, the virus may still evolve in the future, Hoerger notes.
“The fact that we are not seeing an entirely new variant doesn’t mean COVID is not going to cause severe disease,” Ko says.
COVID Symptoms 2026
The symptoms of the COVID-19 variants fueling the summer wave are similar to those caused by other omicron strains. These usually appear within two to 14 days of exposure to the virus.
Common signs of COVID-19 in 2026, per the CDC, include:
- Cough
- Sore throat
- Congestion
- Fatigue
- Fever
- Chills
- Shortness of breath
- Headache
- Nausea and vomiting
- Diarrhea
The symptoms of COVID and other common respiratory viruses are very similar, which is why testing is important.
If you test negative using a rapid at-home antigen test, the CDC recommends taking another test after 48 hours to be confident that you aren’t infected.
Most people recover from COVID-19 on their own, but some groups are at higher risk of severe illness or hospitalization, says Schaffner.
These include adults over the age of 65, infants, individuals with weak immune systems or underlying conditions, and people who have never gotten a COVID vaccine.
The infection can be treated with antivirals, which reduce symptom severity and duration when taken early.
COVID Quarantine Guidelines for 2026
If you get sick with COVID-19, the CDC recommends staying home and isolating from others who aren’t sick until you feel better.
You can go back to your normal activities once your symptoms have improved and you’ve been fever-free without medication for at least 24 hours, the CDC says.
While recovering, the experts recommend practicing social distancing, especially from immunocompromised family members, and wearing a well-fitted N95 respirator or KN95.
Is the New COVID-19 Booster Available?
For the past few years, the COVID-19 vaccine has been reformulated to target the new strains circulating in the fall.
Earlier this year, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration voted to recommend the updated COVID vaccine for 2026-2027 target the XFG variant, NBC News reported previously.
“The new shots will cover what’s anticipated to be circulating this fall and winter,” says Schaffner.
The 2026-2027 COVID vaccines are not yet available, but experts expect them to be released sometime in September.
“It could be later if there’s any kind of snag (in the approval process), and that’s frustrating because we’ve got outbreaks happening now,” says Hoerger.
Last year, the CDC shifted its COVID-19 vaccine guidelines from a universal recommendation to a shared clinical-decision making model for everyone ages 6 months and older.
“This means you should talk with your healthcare provider, whether it’s a doctor or nurse, or a pharmacist first,” says Ko.
The COVID vaccine protects people from severe illness, hospitalization and death, per the CDC. It can also lower the risk of developing long COVID, Hoerger adds.
That’s why most medical experts recommend that everyone who is eligible get a new COVID booster this fall. It’s especially important for high-risk groups and pregnant women to get vaccinated, Schaffner adds.
“At this point, many of us have been exposed multiple times to COVID, so we are building up immunity. But there is a benefit to getting vaccines, especially before the winter,” says Ko.