Where Sam Darnold Must Improve in 2024

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Probably the most fundamental facet of being a quarterback is to finish a cross.

Some quarterbacks can rifle the ball downfield with excessive accuracy.

Some are excellent at anticipation throws.

Some can elude cross rushers with excellent pocket presence.

Others are nice with their legs and provide great speeding upside.

Whether or not superior degree or fundamental passes, on the core, your quarterback BETTER be capable to full passes.

The typical completion price within the NFL during the last decade is 63.9%.

Sam Darnold has performed 66 video games over 6 seasons.

He’s NEVER had a season with even 62% comp.

Not as a rookie in 2018. However extra importantly, not lately both.

Not in 2023. Not in 2022. Not ever.

His profession common is 59.7% comp.

That ranks #47 out of 48 QBs during the last decade.

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In the meantime, the quarterback he will likely be changing (Kirk Cousins) ranks #4 of 48 with a 67.4% completion price.

If you happen to look simply on the final two years for Darnold, he’s dropped again to cross the ball 210 occasions.

Amongst 52 QBs with not less than 200 dropbacks, Darnold’s 59.1% completion price ranks #48, aka #5 worst.

And what’s most regarding about that pattern isn’t the completion price. It’s the explanation these passes weren’t being accomplished.

Solely 3.2% of his passes have been incompletions as a result of receiver error. That was the #2 lowest price of receiver error of these 52 QBs.

Darnold has been horrible underneath stress.

Taking a look at a three-year pattern, Darnold’s completion price was solely 46% when pressured.

He averaged simply 6.0 YPA with -0.38 EPA/dropback, numbers that have been significantly worse than what Cousins was delivering final yr.

A associated downside for Darnold is he welcomes an excessive amount of stress when throwing from 11 personnel, which is Kevin O’Connell’s desired personnel grouping.

Even in the event you take away third downs and deal with early downs in 11 personnel, Darnold has taken stress on 38% of his dropbacks, which ranks #58 out of 62 qualifying QBs the final three years.

We additionally know that O’Connell likes to make use of play motion, and Cousins used it on the #8 highest price within the NFL with O’Connell.

Darnold with play motion the final three years, out of 62 QBs, ranks

• #54 in YPA (7.1)
• #51 in EPA/play (-0.02)
• #49 in completion price (61%)
• #44 in success price (44%)

Lastly, let’s have a look at how Cousins most frequently focused his #1 WR, Justin Jefferson.

Probably the most frequent & best routes have been: Out routes, go routes, and crossing routes.

Go routes: Darnold’s go routes have been among the worst within the NFL. Darnold’s accuracy ranked #45 on go routes the final three seasons. His EPA/play ranked #55. His success price ranked #58, as did his completion price (29.8%). His marks aren’t low as a result of he had WRs that have been dropping the passes. His passes weren’t being accomplished as a result of they have been thrown inaccurately.

Crossing routes: One of many increased effectivity routes from Cousins to Jefferson has been crossing routes (+0.70 EPA/att, 65% success) with a median aDOT of seven.6 yards. Darnold’s thrown a good variety of crossing routes within the final three years (68 makes an attempt), however the effectivity has been horrible (-0.09 EPA/att, 38% success) with an identical 7.8 aDOT. And the accuracy has likewise been horrible. Within the final three years, on crossing routes Darnold’s accuracy ranks #56 of 62 QBs. Cousins ranked #5 of 56 QBs.

Out routes: Out routes could also be the most effective guess. Darnold not less than was not one of many worst QBs within the NFL in accuracy on these routes, rating #36 of 62 QBs (not good however not horrible), however there was one large distinction. Darnold’s out routes averaged simply 4.9 air yards/att the final three years, whereas out routes from Cousins to Jefferson averaged 8.9 air yards/att.

Until Darnold improves in his means to be extra environment friendly when passing from 11 personnel, when passing with play motion, and in his accuracy when throwing go routes and crossing routes, significantly to Jefferson, the Vikings are going to seek out themselves needing substantial effectivity from their run recreation and excellent efficiency from their protection in 2024