The ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells 1/32-finals continue with several intriguing matchups. Medvedev faces Tabilo after a title run in Dubai, Rublev takes on Diallo, while Ruud meets Shevchenko with a strong head-to-head advantage. With form, fatigue, and matchup dynamics in play, there are a few interesting value opportunities to consider.
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells 1/32-Finals
Medvedev – Tabilo: 08.03.2026 04:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Daniil Medvedev has won five straight matches. Last week in Dubai, Medvedev won the ATP 500 title. He was the finalist here twice and has yet to win the title.
Alejandro Tabilo has won three of his last five matches. This week in Indian Wells, he defeated Jodar in the opening round in straight sets within an hour. Last season at the Indian Wells, the Chilean lost to Fritz in the third round in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Tabilo is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Tabilo dominated in the opening round. On the other hand, Medvedev had a long week in Dubai last week. We expect Tabilo to be well-rested and to keep this match tight.
That being said, Tabilo covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alejandro Tabilo +4.5 games handicap @1.67 @bet365
Rublev – Diallo: 07.03.2026 21:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Andrey Rublev has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Dubai, Rublev lost to Griekspoor in the semifinals in straight sets. Last season in Indian Wells, the Russian lost to Arnaldi in the second round in straight sets.
Gabriel Diallo has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Indian Wells, Diallo defeated Bellucci in the opening round in straight sets. He offered and saved only one breakpoint.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Rublev is the clear favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He played well last week in Dubai. Rublev has more experience than Diallo at the Masters 1000 level, and with his current form, we expect him to dominate in this match.
That being said, Rublev covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Andrey Rublev -3.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Shevchenko – Ruud: 07.03.2026 20:00 CEST
H2H: 0-2
Alexander Shevchenko has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Indian Wells, the Kazakh outlasted Shimabukuro in three tight sets. He was great under pressure, saving four out of five breakpoints.
Casper Ruud has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Acapulco, Wu upset him in the opening round. Last season in Indian Wells, Ruud lost to Giron in the second round. He has never made it past the quarterfinals here.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Ruud is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He leads 2-0 in head-to-head meetings against Shevchenko and will dominate on his forehand side. We expect a comfortable straight-sets win.
That being said, Ruud winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Casper Ruud winning 2-0 @1.62 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports