Updated Aug. 17, 2026, 1:51 p.m. ET
- Peak hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin occurs mid-August through mid-October.
- The National Hurricane Center is tracking four tropical waves.
- The next named storm of the season will be Dolly.
What a difference a week makes.
Last week, the National Hurricane Center was keeping an eye on three invests, one of which turned into Tropical Storm Cristobal on Aug. 12, the third-named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
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This week marks the most-active period of the Atlantic hurricane season, with most activity appearing from mid-August through mid-October, although you can’t tell that from the tropical outlook map.
Forecasters are watching four tropical waves, though, and regularly warn residents to always be prepared, no matter what the predictions are or what’s out there this second.
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AccuWeather is highlighting an area west of Africa with a low risk for development next week, Aug. 22-24.
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Strong wind shear, along with dry air “is keeping a lid on the tropics for the most part,” said Nicolas Arman, AccuWeather meteorologist via email Aug. 17.
The next named storm of the season will be Dolly.
Meanwhile, in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Lala is moving away from the main Hawaiian Islands but may regain strength and become a hurricane again Aug. 19, according to the Hurricane Center. More than 126,000 homes and businesses were without power early Aug. 17.
➤ Live updates: Latest on Tropical Storm Lala
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m., Aug. 17:
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
No. As of 2 p.m. Aug. 17, the National Hurricane Center is predicting no tropical cyclones to develop over the next seven days.
There are four tropical waves out there.
Strong wind shear and dry air is helping prevent development.
We are in the busiest period of the Atlantic hurricane season, and while predictions are for a below-normal season, forecaster constantly warn “it only takes one” for the season to have an impact if a storm hits your area.
AccuWeather is giving an area west of Africa a low risk for tropical development Aug. 22-24.
“Overall, the strong El Niño continues to produce a lot of wind shear across the Atlantic basin, especially in the Caribbean,” Arman said.
“This combined with lots of dry air is keeping a lid on the tropics for the most part, as we saw with Invests 92L and 94L last week.
“However, we are beginning to draw closer to the peak climatological season for the Atlantic in September. With that in mind, the most likely area to see tropical development next is the Main Development Region in the central Atlantic, as this is where most activity during late August into September occurs as tropical waves continue moving off of Africa into the basin.
“As we approach September, wind shear does look to begin to decrease across this region, which can help any tropical waves traversing the Main Development Region to have a better chance of surviving and becoming a named storm.”
When could we see Tropical Storm or Hurricane Dolly?
No tropical cyclone development is expected in the Atlantic basin over the next seven days, although conditions can change rapidly, and Florida residents should always keep a close eye on the tropics.
Historically, the fourth-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs Aug. 15, with the first hurricane appearing Aug. 11 and the first major hurricane developing Sept. 1, according to NOAA.
A major hurricane is one that’s at least a Category 3 or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or stronger.
National Hurricane Center tracking 4 tropical waves
There were no disturbances listed by the National Hurricane Center on its tropical outlook map as of 2 p.m. Aug. 17, but forecasters are watching four tropical waves:
- A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along south of 19N. It is moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
- A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W, extending from 02N to 18N, and moving westward at 17 mph.
- Another central tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with its axis near 56W, south of 18N, moving westward at 17 to 23 mph.
- A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W south of 19N. It is moving westward at about 17 mph.
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
➤ Hurricane Center testing new cone: What’s changing this season?
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
➤ Ready or not, National Hurricane Center resumes daily tropical outlooks
If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Florida weather radar for Aug. 17, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
- Hurricane: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
- Typhoon: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
- Cyclone: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
Arthur: Tropical Storm Arthur formed June 17, 2026Bertha: Tropical Storm Bertha formed July 20, 2026Cristobal: Tropical Storm Cristobal formed Aug. 12- Dolly, DAH-lee (fourth-named storm historically forms Aug. 15)
- Edouard, eh-DWARD
- Fay, fay
- Gonzalo, gohn-SAH-loh
- Hanna, HAN-uh
- Isaias, ees-ah-EE-ahs
- Josephine, JOH-seh-feen
- Kyle, KY-ull
- Leah, LEE-ah
- Marco, MAR-koe
- Nana, NA-na
- Omar, OH-mar
- Paulette, pawl-LET
- Rene, re-NAY
- Sally, SAL-ee
- Teddy, TEHD-ee
- Vicky, VIH-kee
- Wilfred, WILL-fred
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
This story has been updated with new information.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at