Running back is the most important position in fantasy football, so avoiding players who could fall short of expectations due to their situation or have red flags on their resume is crucial. Our Yahoo analysts take a hard look at the running backs position and identify five candidates to fade at draft cost.
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Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (Yahoo ADP 5.6)
McCaffrey’s ceiling is as high as any player in fantasy, but it’s hard to draft him with confidence given last year’s workload, some signs of decline and his age. When you include the 49ers’ postseason appearances, CMC handled 450 touches in 2025. There have only been 10 backs who posted 400-plus touches (with playoffs) over the last 10 years and just three of them were hits for fantasy the next season, per Yahoo’s Joel Smyth. Even more concerning, those three backs were all 25 or younger during those campaigns, while McCaffrey turned 30 in June. He also saw a steep dropoff in efficiency, finishing 48th in yards per carry, 42nd in explosive run rate, 43rd in rushing success rate and 47th in yards after contact per attempt, according to Fantasy Points data. That’s a far cry from where he was two years ago, when he ranked inside the top 10 in all four of those categories.
If I pass on McCaffrey and he defies the odds with another big season, I’ll survive since I still have a strong Round 1 pick on my team. But if I draft him at ADP knowing what we know and he fails to deliver, I’ll never let myself forget it. — Justin Boone
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David Montgomery, Texans (52.4)
Montgomery must overcome his career wear-and-tear along with an OL that’s been horrific for the entirety of the C.J. Stroud era. The Texans are 31st in EPA per carry and 22nd in rush yards per game since 2023 when DeMeco Ryans and Stroud were brought to Houston. If Montgomery is Joe Mixon, then I’m wrong. But Montgomery is not paid like Mixon was, nor has had the career Mixon had before his RB9 finish in 2024.
Woody Marks is a second-year player with a better passing-down profile and improved play between the tackles based on his camp reports and preseason tape. Montgomery’s missed tackles per touch rate last year was 18% when it was 27%, 21%, and 24% in the previous three seasons, and if he’s not clearly better than Marks, then there’s no reason to make this a bellcow backfield. Even if he is a workhorse for one more year, the Texans OL is starting an out-of-position rookie center and three potentially washed veterans. — Hayden Winks
More fades by position
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Quinshon Judkins, Browns (ADP 53.2)
When you draft a fantasy running back, you’re drafting into the village that supports that running back. That’s a scary proposition for Judkins. The Browns are projected to win just 5.5 games, they’re tied to the biggest clown show quarterback room in the league and they have perhaps the worst offensive line in football. Judkins is also returning from ankle surgery. Fantasy scoring at this position is largely correlated to team success; good luck bankrolling the 2026 Browns for anything. Judkins is currently the RB22 in Yahoo ADP, a ticket I’m not interested in punching. — Scott Pianowski
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Tony Pollard, Titans (ADP 85.5)
Pollard’s best finish in half-PPR FPPG the last three seasons is RB22. Has there been enough positive change this offseason for him to break back into the top 20? No, quite the opposite I’d argue. Entering his age-29 season off three straight years of a massive 275+ touch workload (one of only three RBs), the Titans and Brian Daboll look to have more of a committee approach with Tyjae Spears. The receiving game is especially limited, making Pollard more dependent on early downs and red-zone work. That can be plenty fine for some, but for Pollard on the Titans offense with this offensive line, it’s not the ideal. There’s a good chance Tennessee is consistently playing from behind while Pollard is unlikely to break past six TDs for the fourth straight year. The upside is bleak with a chance of being unstartable. — Joel Smyth
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J.K. Dobbins, Broncos (ADP 96.4)
If we’re adhering to the advice that “volume is king,” then Dobbins already has a claim to the RB1 throne in Denver. Through 10 weeks, Dobbins was one of 20 rushers owning 60% or more of his team’s carries. Coupled with a 70% goal-line rate, Dobbins had most of the fantasy-relevant touches on lock. But a closer look at his usage highlights the fragility of his ’26 outlook. Of his 153 attempts, 145 came on first or second down. RJ Harvey earned more snaps and opportunities in obvious passing situations. Plus, his 10.0 routes per game on early downs were just ahead of Judkins (9.9) and about as many targets per game as Jordan Mason (1.3). Simply put, Dobbins has fewer outs to meet his draft cost.
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Despite Harvey’s struggles as a runner, his collegiate receiving profile instantly translated, as he was ninth in YPRR after taking over the starter role. And Jonah Coleman is more than ready to take on the short-yardage reps after HC Sean Payton pulled Coleman from his preseason debut against the Falcons. If you really want to add an RB with a limited scope of projectable work, draft the aforementioned Mason or Chris Rodriguez Jr. later. — Chris Allen
Analysis from the best in the business
The Playbook is powered by some of fantasy football’s most-trusted analysts: Justin Boone (the top-ranked in-season ranker of 2025), Matt Harmon, Josh Norris, Joel Smyth, Scott Pianowski and Hayden Winks. This isn’t one analyst’s opinion. It’s a consensus of the sharpest minds in fantasy football, featuring advice you can rely on.
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