June 21, 2026, 10:06 a.m. ET
- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to arrive in the Louisville area on the evening of June 21.
- The primary severe weather threat is damaging straight-line winds, though tornadoes are also possible.
- Louisville is under a slight risk for severe weather, the second-highest category from the National Weather Service.
- A flood watch is in effect for Southern Indiana due to the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are due to arrive in the Louisville area as early as the evening of June 21, meteorologists with the National Weather Service in Louisville said in a new report.
Damaging straight-line winds are the mostly likely severe weather threat for June 21, though tornadoes are possible, particularly along and west of the Interstate 65 corridor, NWS Louisville officials said. Thunderstorms are possible as early as 5 p.m., while the greatest chance for severe weather will be between 8 p.m. and 4 a.m. June 22.
Louisville is under a slight risk of severe weather June 21, which is the second-highest of five categories measured by the National Weather Service. NWS meteorologists said the potentially severe storms will come from an area of low pressure moving through Indiana, one of several states north and west of Kentucky which are under a slight risk. Much of the commonwealth is under a slight risk for severe weather, as the area extends east of Lexington, and includes Bowling Green and West Kentucky.
Maps from the weather service show Louisville neighborhoods west of I-65 have a 5-9% chance of seeing a tornado the night of June 21, while there is a 2-4% chance for the rest of the city. NWS officials are also not ruling out Louisville receiving winds of 70 mph or greater and hail of at least once inch in size.
Meteorologists are also monitoring a potential flooding risk, as all of Southern Indiana is under a flood watch from 2 p.m. June 21 until 8 a.m. June 22. Due to recent storms in the area, “some flash flooding concerns could arise with additional heavy rain,” weather service officials said. Louisville and the rest of Kentucky are not included in the flood watch.
Excessive runoff may also flood low-water crossings, like creeks and streams. NWS Louisville official warned drivers and pedestrians to avoid deep water in cases of flash flooding. A small car could be swept away by just 12 inches of fast-moving water, and 18-24 inches could carry away most large SUVs, vans and trucks.
Another chance of severe weather in the Louisville area comes June 22. Louisville and much of Kentucky is under a marginal risk for severe weather, the lowest category, because there is concern that heavy rains could lead to flash flood warnings, NWS officials said. Southeastern Kentucky is under a slight risk of excessive rainfall June 22.
“Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Monday as [the] system departs to the east and leaves a stalled frontal boundary,” weather service officials said in a statement. “Some storms will have the capability of producing locally heavy rainfall.”
Louisville weather forecast for June 21-25
June 21: It will be partly sunny, with calm winds and a high near 88 and a low of around 70. Showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight, with 1-2 inches of new rainfall possible. The chance of precipitation overnight is 80%.
June 22: Showers and thunderstorms are expected before 1 p.m., which chances for additional storms are possible the rest of the day. The chance of precipitation is 80% during the day and 20% overnight. The high will be near 81 and the low will be around 62.
June 23: It will be mostly sunny during the day and mostly clear at night. The high will be near 82 and the low around 61.
June 24: There may be patchy fog before 7 a.m. Otherwise, it will be sunny, with a high near 85. It will be partly cloudy overnight, with a low around 65.
June 25: There is a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Otherwise it will be mostly sunny, with a high near 86. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. The low will be around 65.
Ruby Griffin contributed reporting. Reach reporter Leo Bertucci at lbertucci@usatodayco.com or @leober2chee on X, formerly known as Twitter