This is a series that, on paper, is not setting up well for the Orioles. Their underwhelming performance of late has dropped them to the bottom of the AL East, though they are still within two games of the final wild card spot. Meanwhile, the Rays have surged to a nine-game winning streak that has them 6.5 games clear of the Yankees in the division, and well atop the junior circuit at large.
These four games will be played in St. Petersburg, where the Rays have been dominant all season long. They own a 41-18 record at home, the best mark in the sport. The Orioles, on the other hand, are 26-33 on the road and 27-28 against teams above .500.
Tampa’s offense comes into this series on fire. They just scored 30 runs in their three-game sweep of the Athletics, though that came on the heels of a stretch where they failed to score more than four runs in four consecutive games. Offense is not the team’s ultimate strength. They are 13th in MLB in runs scored on the year, but several of their big names have succeeded in August, including Chandler Simpson (161 wRC+ since August 1), Junior Caminero (153 wRC+), Jonathan Aranda (124 wRC+), and Yandy Díaz (111 wRC+).
The goal for the Orioles must be to get to the Rays bullpen sooner than later. The unit’s 4.46 ERA since the start of August ranks 24th in MLB, and many of their peripheral numbers are similarly subpar. They could get a boost this weekend with a return of the injured Manuel Rodríguez, who is yet to pitch this year and has already appeared in seven rehab games. Old friend Cole Sulser may also return from back spams, which put him on the shelf at the end of July. For what it’s worth, Tyler Wells has thrown 4.1 scoreless innings so far as a Ray while Bryan Baker has been one of the league’s best closers (1.55 ERA, 34 saves) this season
Adding to the uncertainty of this series is the Orioles pitching situation. They are yet to announce any of their starters for the series. That indicates that a roster move is coming, likely involving Chris Bassitt. The 37-year-old has made three rehab starts, including six shutout innings on August 7. It seems like he will start the opener of this series, but that has not been confirmed yet.
Game 1: Friday, August 14th, 7:10 p.m., MASN
TBD vs. LHP Steven Matz (5-4, 5.46 ERA)
Bassitt has not pitched in a major league game since June 3. His time with the Orioles has been a struggle. He has a 5.27 ERA over 12 appearances and 56.1 innings. He has been sharper during his minor league rehab games, and seems eager to help the team get back into contention. The team’s positive outlook on his health is likely what made the trade of Dean Kremer easier to pull off.
Matz will serve as the opener here. He has not thrown more than two innings in an appearance since late May, and this will be his first start at all since June 2. He has been quite good recently, allowing no runs over his last six appearances. That has dropped his season ERA from 6.29 to to 5.46.
Game 2: Saturday, August 15th, 6:10 p.m., MASN
TBD vs. LHP Ian Seymour (9-3, 4.08 ERA)
This would be Kyle Bradish’s turn in the rotation. He bounced back from a tough start against the Phillies to allow just one earned run over six innings in a tough luck loss to the Rangers. He has already made two starts against the Rays, both back in May. He served up three earned runs over 11.1 innings back then.
Seymour has been a useful piece that Kevin Cash has moved between the rotation and the bullpen several times this year. He has a 4.43 ERA as a starter and a 3.81 ERA as a reliever and has improved as the season has worn on. He has appeared in three games against the O’s this year, tossing 4.1 total innings without allowing an earned run.
Game 3: Sunday, August 16th, 12:15 p.m., Peacock
TBD vs. RHP Freddy Peralta (5-9, 5.33 ERA)
This will probably be a Trevor Rogers start, though it remains to be confirmed. The lefty has labored a bit recently. Over his last three starts he has allowed 11 runs (eight earned) over 16 innings. But his peripherals are good. In those same 16 innings he has struck out 19, walked two, and only given up 15 hits. His FIP of 3.08 may be a better reflection than his 4.50 ERA over that stretch.
Peralta had a tough time with the Mets, and things haven’t gotten any better with the Rays. He has allowed 10 runs, all earned, over 9.2 innings in his two starts with the new club. His top line stats are worse than all of his expected numbers, but he has still been nowhere near the Cy Young level he pitched at in Milwaukee. The Rays probably aren’t too worried about it right now as long as he trends up closer to October.
Game 4: Monday, August 17th, 6:05 p.m., MASN
This is a wraparound series that ends on Monday. Neither team has announced a starter for the finale.
How many games do you think the Orioles will win in this series? Let us know in the comments.