Louisville Cardinals (18-6, 8-4) vs. Baylor Bears (13-11, 3-9)
Location: Dickies Arena: Fort Worth, TX
Announcers: Dave Pasch (play-by-play) and Sean Farnham (analysis)
Favorite: Louisville by 6.5
Series: Baylor leads, 1-0
Last Meeting: Baylor won 66-63 on Nov. 25, 2016 in the Battle 4 Atlantis championship game at Paradise Islands, Bahamas
Projected Starting Lineups:
- G Mikel Brown Jr. (6-5, 190, Fr.)
- G Isaac McKneely (6-4, 195, Sr.)
- G Ryan Conwell (6-4, 215, Sr.)
- F J’Vonne Hadley (6-7, 210, Sr.)
- C Sananda Fru (6-11, 245, Jr.)
- G Isaac Williams IV (6-1, 192, S0.)
- G Obi Agbim (6-3, 183, Sr.)
- G Cameron Carr (6-5, 175, So.)
- G Tounde Yessoufou (6-5, 215, So.)
- C Caden Powell (6-9, 224, Sr.)
None given (non-conference game)
Baylor’s Season to Date:
Even though the opponent is a top 25 team on a four-game winning streak, Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears have to be feeling good about getting a reprieve from Big 12 play. The team is just 3-9 in conference games, its worst record through 12 games of league play in 20 years.
The Bears have shown signs of life in recent weeks, however. They won games at West Virginia (63-53) and over Colorado (86-67) before dropping a pair of competitive contests against ranked foes No. 7 Iowa State (72-69) and No. 22 BYU (99-94).
The biggest thing to know about Baylor is that if the sport were just about offense, the Bears would be a near-lock to be a single digit seed in the NCAA Tournament. They enter Saturday’s game ranked 23rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and their scoring average of 83.9 points per game is the 35th-highest in Division-I. The Bears are shooting 45.9 percent from the field over their last five games.
Leading the charge for Baylor this season is the two-headed backcourt monster of Cameron Carr (19.8 ppg) and Tounde Yessoufou (18.5 ppg), a pair of players who are both projected to be first round picks in multiple current 2026 NBA mock drafts.
Carr has been one of the most surprising breakout stars in college basketball this season. He played sparingly over two seasons at Tennessee and left the program last season in December after being limited to just four appearances because of a thumb injury. He’s been a godsend for Drew this season, starting all 24 games and currently ranking fifth in the big 12 in scoring.
What makes Carr such an attractive NBA prospect is his combination of being an explosive leaper with a 7-foot-1½ wingspan and a reliable outside shot (41.4%). He’s also a solid defender and a plus rebounder for his size. In large part because of the unexpected departure of point guard Robert Wright IV (transferred to BYU after agreeing to a deal to return to Waco), Carr has been asked to create a lot more than he would have otherwise. He struggles sometimes when he’s forced to improvise off the dribble, but outside of that, his game is pretty rock solid. He also comes into Saturday’s game especially hot from the outside, knocking down 13 of his last 28 attempts from beyond the arc.
Yessoufou is coming off the most impressive individual performance by a Baylor player so far this season. The 6’5 freshman dropped 37 points on 12-of-19 shooting (5-of-8 from three) in the team’s 99-94 loss to BYU Tuesday night. It was the points ever scored by a Baylor player against a ranked opponent.
A 5-star prospect who set a new all-time high school scoring record in the state of California (it was broken this season), Yessoufou is a physical specimen who thrives playing bully ball, but has been a surprisingly capable outside shooter (32.8%) for most of this season, especially recently. His handle is a bit of a work in progress, but Yessoufu is a pure scorer who hasn’t been held to fewer than 9 points in a game this season. He is a gambler defensively, but he’s seen that pay off to the tune of 2.1 steals per game.
Depth is a significant concern for Baylor at the moment. Obi Agbim (11.4 ppg), Isaac Williams IV (9.4 ppg), Michael Rataj (8.1 ppg) and Caden Powell (6.6 ppg/6.7 rpg) are all capable performers, but with Dan Skillings Jr. (10.2 ppg/6.5 rpg) sidelined by a knee injury the last three games, the Bears are pretty much only getting production from those six guys.
The only other Bear seeing meaningful minutes at this time is big man James Nnaji, a 2023 NBA Draft pick whose eligibility was the subject of great scrutiny earlier this year. He has appeared in 11 games and scored just 13 total points.
While the talent is clearly there in areas, the lack of a true point guard and a true center are glaring weaknesses on this team. Wright’s abrupt transfer put Drew and this team in a really tough position straight from the jump.
Watching Baylor, one of the things that’s most impressive is how hard they’re still playing. Even with their season almost guaranteed to be deemed a failure by program standards, this team’s togetherness and positive attitude are readily apparent.
Louisville is the better team here, and the weaknesses on Baylor’s defense are similar to those of the NC State team that the Cardinals just eviscerated, but if U of L thinks they can just show up, go through the motions and fly back home, they’re in for a rude awakening. The Bears will absolutely make Louisville earn this one.
—Saturday will mark the latest Louisville has played a regular season non-conference game since Feb. 17, 2001 when Denny Crum’s last Louisville team lost at Utah 84-67.
—Louisville has a 268-85 record (.759) against non-conference opponents over the last 25 seasons.
—Baylor is 0-6 against AP top 25 opponents so far this season.
—Baylor is 35-32 against ranked teams over the last seven seasons.
—Louisville is one of three Division-I teams with at least six victories of 40 points or more this season, joining Michigan (7) and High Point (6). The six 40+ point wins are the most U of L has ever had in a single season.
—Baylor is 13-0 when leading at halftime this season, and 0-11 when trailing at the break.
—Louisville is 45-0 under head coach Pat Kelsey when leading with five minutes to play. The Cardinals are also 0-13 under Kelsey when trailing with five minutes to play.
—Louisville is currently 10th in the country in scoring margin at +16.2 points per game.
—In Big 12 play, Baylor has out-rebounded its opponent in nine out of 12 games, averaging 34.8 rebounds per game and 11.2 offensive rebounds per game in the conference season.
—Baylor is one of two teams to have a top-three seed in four of the past five NCAA Tournaments (Houston).
—Baylor is one of three teams to win an NCAA Tournament game every year since 2019 (Gonzaga, Houston).
—Baylor owns a current streak of seven consecutive seasons with at least 10 conference victories.
—Baylor is 94-5 (.949) over the last 10 seasons when hitting at least 50.0 percent from the field, sixth best in Division I (min. 20 games).
—Baylor and Kansas are the only Power-5 schools to win 18+ games every year since 2008.
—Louisville has won four consecutive games for the first time since beginning the season 7-0.
—Baylor head coach Scott Drew is 1-0 in games against Louisville.
—Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey will be facing Baylor for the first time.
—Baylor is 121-6 since 2019 when shooting a higher percentage than its opponent.
—Louisville is 0-9 under head coach Pat Kelsey when trailing by 5 points or more at halftime.
—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 11 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.
—Louisville is 122-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.
—Louisville has won 167 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.
Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville 85, Baylor 80