Yusei Kikuchi Returns an Astronomical Haul for the Blue Jays

I’ve been pondering Yusei Kikuchi’s commerce deadline destiny for months. That sounds overly particular – there are such a lot of gamers that get traded yearly. Why surprise about this one man? He has a 4.75 ERA this yr and a 4.72 mark for his profession. He’ll be a free agent at yr’s finish. Months? Shouldn’t I’ve been doing one thing extra helpful with my time? In all probability. However hey, now I’m in a greater place to jot down about this significantly astounding deadline transaction: Final night time, the Blue Jays traded Kikuchi to the Astros in change for a bountiful crop of younger gamers: Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido, and Will Wagner.

Kikuchi turns analysts like me into Fox Mulder: We need to imagine. We’re speaking a couple of man with one of many prettiest fastballs in baseball, interval. It has nice form. He throws onerous, sitting 94-96 mph and topping out round 99. Stuff fashions find it irresistible. PitchingBot thinks it’s the nastiest fastball thrown by a starter, and tied for the general greatest (with Sonny Grey’s fastball) after contemplating location. Stuff+ is skeptical, comparatively talking – it thinks the fastball is the third-best amongst starters, behind the warmers of Kutter Crawford and Zack Wheeler.

Kikuchi throws a pleasant slider to enhance the fastball, 88-90 mph and with sharp chunk for a gyro slider. He rounds out his arsenal with a tough, two-plane curveball and a weird slider that appears to drift and fade concurrently. He does it from a cool arm slot and with a misleading supply. When Kikuchi is on, he’s able to torching opposing lineups singlehandedly. His first 10 begins of this season had been phenomenal: 2.64 ERA, 2.61 FIP, a 26% strikeout charge, and a minuscule 5.5% stroll charge. He’d been steadily enhancing in Toronto, and this yr appeared like his breakout.

Since then, issues have gone fairly poorly. I’m speaking a couple of 6.87 ERA and 4.67 FIP poorly, 13 homers in solely 12 begins poorly. Kikuchi has gotten shelled repeatedly, and the Jays have plummeted out of the playoff race on the similar time. His timing for his woes might’ve hardly been worse, creating an odd dilemma for the Jays. Kikuchi was on hearth via most of June, and the Jays’ playoff odds bounced round between 20 and 40 p.c throughout that point. When Kikuchi’s perceived commerce worth was at its highest, the group wasn’t able to promote.

Then he began getting worse, and the Jays’ playoff odds began dipping on the similar time, with the underside falling out across the finish of June, when a seven-game dropping streak, adopted by a 4-6 stretch towards playoff competitors, put them hopelessly far behind within the standings. It was lastly time to commerce Kikuchi – besides, throughout seven begins from Might 26-June 28, he had a 7.12 ERA and peripherals that weren’t a lot better. The good transfer appeared to be holding Kikuchi a bit longer, ready for each a rebound and the commerce deadline to provide some motivated consumers.

So the Jays held, however Kikuchi didn’t enhance a lot. He’s been barely higher in July, however solely barely: 6.59 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and a house run per begin over 5 begins. He managed six or extra innings in solely a kind of begins, as well. However now time has run out, and so Kikuchi’s on the transfer. Or perhaps I ought to rephrase: Fortunately, simply earlier than time ran out, it seems that your entire hypothetical decline in Kikuchi’s commerce worth was simply made up. The Astros despatched the Blue Jays an exceptional commerce provide, and now Kikuchi is headed right down to the Gulf Coast to chase the playoffs.

I nonetheless suppose Kikuchi is an effective possibility as a mid-rotation starter. He’s nearly definitely inferior to his early-season type, however he’s a lot better than he’s carried out during the last two months. His sport sinks or floats based mostly on what number of dwelling runs he permits. That’s been the story together with his model-beloved arsenal, too; they’re nice pitches on common, however he leaves each his fastball and slider in harmful places an excessive amount of for somebody with out big motion. His pitches are extra timing-disruptive than pure bat-missers, and that simply doesn’t work as nicely if you depart it middle-middle.

For the Astros, that mixture most likely feels acquainted. A homer-prone pitcher who appears dominant when the ball stays within the yard? Seems like Hunter Brown, or late-career Justin Verlander. However the Astros have struggled to area beginning pitchers all yr. They misplaced two starters they had been relying on for the entire season in June. Verlander has been out for greater than a month. Lance McCullers Jr. hasn’t pitched all yr, and his rehab has been rocky; there’s at the moment no timeline for his return. Their rotation has been three strong arms (Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, and Brown), after which pray for rain, not one of the best plan in a retractable-roof stadium.

Even worse, Blanco and Brown are going to succeed in their profession highs in innings quickly, so the group is speaking a couple of six-man rotation to guard its arms. Including Kikuchi lessens the load on the highest trio considerably. He’s not precisely an innings eater, however the Astros certainly can be proud of somebody going on the market each fifth or sixth day and placing up five-plus respectable innings.

One of many guys Houston has turned to for innings in current weeks is Jake Bloss, the headline of the gamers heading to Toronto within the deal. He’s been superior, a spectacularly quick riser who was a 3rd spherical draft decide solely final yr earlier than tearing via the minors. He was a breakout small-college participant who transferred to Georgetown in his senior yr and impressed towards his hardest competitors but, so he’s been transferring up ranges and stunning folks for 3 years now. A winter within the Houston pitching lab appears to have sharpened his command, and as you would possibly count on, he has the group’s signature rising fastball cooking in 2024.

This isn’t some mirage; he’s throwing a number of plus pitches and may need fairly good command, too. Within the minors, he struck out 27% of batters and allowed little or no onerous contact en path to a sub-2.00 ERA and strong 3.20 FIP. He shredded minor league hitters so comprehensively that I utterly perceive why Houston introduced him as much as the majors to see if the magic might proceed, however his first three large league begins have been tough. Extra particularly, his third main league begin was tough: The A’s launched 4 homers off of him in solely 4 innings. I’m a giant fan of the potential right here, however I’d ideally give him a little bit bit extra time within the minors to develop, and I feel the Astros reached that conclusion as nicely, therefore the commerce.

This is able to’ve made for a logical one-for-one swap: a fast-rising pitching prospect for a mid-rotation rental. However then, unfathomably, the Astros kicked in considerably extra. We had Bloss as their no. 2 prospect; Joey Loperfido was no. 3 till he graduated from prospect standing earlier this season. He’s a giant versatile outfielder with true-outcome fever; he has 30-homer energy, takes walks, and strikes out a bunch. Our prospect group put a forty five FV grade on him as a flexible bench participant with the flexibility to area 5 positions (the outfield plus first and second), with an out of doors probability of hitting sufficient to turn out to be an on a regular basis participant.

However wait, there’s nonetheless extra. The final participant within the deal is Will Wagner, Billy Wagner’s son and an upper-minors infielder with a contact-over-power method. You possibly can most likely image this normal archetype; when it really works out in addition to doable, it’s Brendan Donovan. When it doesn’t, it’s any variety of utility infielders that your group makes use of to patch holes within the roster. Wagner is hitting .307/.424/.429 with extra strikeouts than walks in Triple-A this yr, however I feel that line overstates his possible main league influence. Pitchers are going to assail him with strikes till he begins to make them pay for it, and as you may need realized from how comparable his OBP and slug are, that’s been a battle for him.

Nonetheless, it’s extremely possible that Wagner turns into a part-time contributor within the majors, if solely on the backside of the roster. He’s Rule 5 eligible after this yr, and I feel that the Jays’ roster state of affairs makes it possible that he’ll find yourself on the 40-man consequently. The Astros had been unlikely to have house for him, in order that addition seems like a get-the-deal-over-the-finish-line sweetener.

Solely… why did the Astros want so as to add a sweetener? This can be a big win for the Blue Jays, in my view. The Astros are wizards in relation to getting probably the most out of mid-round draft picks. Bloss, Loperfido, and Wagner are all large success tales, unheralded picks who’ve far exceeded their expectations. However after doing all that tough work, the group circled and flipped them for a mid-rotation rental.

I perceive why the Astros want Kikuchi. However based mostly on returns on the previous few commerce deadlines, Bloss alone was proper round what I’d count on the Jays to get for dealing him. Possibly a Wagner-type participant or two if the Astros had been significantly eager to get the deal carried out. Loperfido, too? That’s a number of good younger gamers for 2-3 months of a solid-but-not-overwhelming pitcher.

The extra I mull this over in my head, the extra I feel the Astros wished Kikuchi particularly. In the event that they had been calling each group in baseball and saying “We want beginning, and we’ll provide Jake Bloss plus…” somebody would have dealt them an arm in pretty quick order. I’d commerce a number of the starters who haven’t but been moved (Jack Flaherty and Zack Littell spring to thoughts) for lower than this return, and I believe that their groups would possibly too. This solely is sensible to me if the Astros wished Kikuchi particularly and weren’t keen to overlook their man. That’s how you find yourself making a suggestion that makes analysts throughout the board go “Whoa, actually?”

I feel it’s price bumping expectations of Kikuchi up barely given this context. When a group desires somebody this badly, it certainly has a cause. However I additionally suppose the Astros entrance workplace is an odd mishmash of outdated and new, and that they’re working at cross functions. The a part of the org that sagely selects school pitchers with attention-grabbing peripherals after which helps them unlock new heights of their sport most likely isn’t the identical half that ships out a mountain of prime prospects for two-plus months of a mid-rotation starter. I perceive the Astros’ motivation within the deal, and but I nonetheless suppose they gave up an excessive amount of.