The Australian Open 2026 is heating up Down Under, and all eyes are on the highly anticipated first-round clash between Britain’s Sonay Kartal and Russia’s Anna Kalinskaya. Scheduled for Monday, January 19, at 9:20 PM ET, this matchup promises to set the tone for both players’ campaigns at one of tennis’s most prestigious Grand Slam events. With the Melbourne courts buzzing and fans eager for drama, who will seize the moment and advance to round two?
For Sonay Kartal, this year’s Australian Open represents a shot at redemption. Last season, she bowed out in the opening round, falling to Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in straight sets, 6-1, 7-6(5). That defeat stung, but Kartal has shown resilience and determination throughout her career. She enters this year’s draw with hopes of turning the page and making a deeper run, but the draw hasn’t done her many favors. Her first obstacle? Anna Kalinskaya, a player with a wealth of hard-court experience and a reputation for being a tough out.
Kalinskaya, who did not compete in Melbourne last year, brings a 2-2 win-loss record for 2026, with all matches played on hard courts. That stat alone might not turn heads, but dig a little deeper and you’ll see she’s logged a 175-95 record on hard surfaces over the past 13 years. That’s a lot of mileage and more than a few big-stage battles. According to Dimers’ predictive tennis model, Kalinskaya holds a 57% chance of victory in this encounter, while the simulations also tip her as the favorite to take the first set, with a 55% probability. The numbers suggest she’s the one to beat, but the margins are razor-thin.
Despite the odds, Kartal is hardly a pushover. Bookmakers and analysts have pegged her as a slight underdog, but not by much. The moneyline odds at the time of publication were Kalinskaya at -145 and Kartal at +129. For the first set, Kalinskaya is at -139, Kartal at +110. The game spread is also close, with Kalinskaya -1.5 at -145 and Kartal +1.5 at -110. The over/under for total games is set at 21.5, each side hovering near even odds. If you’re a betting fan, this is one of those matches that could swing either way—a true test of nerves and execution under the Melbourne lights.
So what about their head-to-head? Surprisingly, this will be the first time Kartal and Kalinskaya square off in a main tour match. That means there’s no historical baggage or psychological edge—just two players eager to stamp their authority on the 2026 Australian Open. Both have something to prove: Kartal wants to shake off last year’s disappointment, while Kalinskaya is hungry to make her mark after missing the tournament in 2025.
Looking ahead, the draw doesn’t get any easier for either competitor. Should Kartal advance, she’ll likely face Italy’s Elisabetta Cocciaretto, who boasts an impressive 8-1 record in 2026, all on hard courts, and recently captured the title in Hobart. Cocciaretto’s confidence is sky-high, and she’ll be a formidable opponent for anyone in her path. Further down the line, the likes of Iga Swiatek, Naomi Osaka, Elena Rybakina, Amanda Anisimova, and Aryna Sabalenka loom large—each with a history of deep Grand Slam runs and plenty of firepower.
Swiatek, currently world No. 2, reached the final in Australia earlier this year and has a 3-2 record for 2026. Osaka, a four-time Grand Slam champion, is on the comeback trail with a 1-1 record this season. Rybakina, last year’s fourth-round casualty, has already chalked up a pair of wins on hard courts in 2026. Anisimova and Sabalenka—each with their own impressive credentials—are also projected threats deeper in the draw. For Kartal, the road ahead is daunting, but that’s the nature of Grand Slam tennis: survive, advance, and maybe, just maybe, catch fire at the right moment.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Monday’s match is the immediate focus, and both players know the stakes. “The Australian Open is always a special tournament,” Kartal has said in past interviews, reflecting on her desire to make an impact on the big stage. While she hasn’t publicly commented ahead of this particular match, her recent form suggests she’s ready for the challenge. Kalinskaya, for her part, has been quietly building momentum, and her wealth of hard-court experience could prove decisive under pressure.
As for the analysts, opinions are split. While Dimers’ model gives Kalinskaya the edge, their “best bet” recommendation is actually for Kartal to win the first set—a nod to her potential for a fast start and perhaps a bit of value for punters looking for an upset. The simulations also indicate a 53% chance that Kalinskaya covers the -1.5 games spread and a 53% likelihood that the match goes over 21.5 total games. Translation? Expect a close, competitive battle with plenty of twists and turns.
For British tennis fans, Kartal’s campaign is one to watch. The 2026 season is still young, but a breakthrough in Melbourne could set the tone for bigger things to come. She’s shown flashes of brilliance in the past, and a win over Kalinskaya would not only avenge last year’s early exit but also send a message to the rest of the field. For Kalinskaya, this is a chance to reassert herself among the game’s elite and remind everyone why she’s such a dangerous floater in any draw.
With the match set to unfold under the bright lights of Rod Laver Arena, anticipation is building. Will Kartal rise to the occasion and pull off the upset, or will Kalinskaya’s experience and hard-court pedigree carry her through? One thing’s for sure: tennis fans are in for a treat as the Australian Open 2026 gets underway.
As the clock ticks down to Monday night’s showdown, the only certainty is uncertainty itself. Both Sonay Kartal and Anna Kalinskaya are ready to leave it all on the court, and with the stakes this high, every point will matter. Stay tuned—the first round of the Australian Open is about to deliver its first big drama of the year.