As we do every week, we preview the biggest games of the weekend and make our official predictions.
Let’s take a look at the biggest games of the Week 11 slate.
2025 Prediction Record: 116-29
2022-24 Record: 382-122
Kickoff: 1 pm CT (ESPN+)
This may be a must-win game for both teams if they want to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. Youngstown State is 5-3 against the FCS (5-4 overall), needing to win its final three games to avoid finishing 7-5 overall. The Salukis are 6-3 overall, but have a non-Division I win, meaning they’ll have to win their last three games to reach eight Division I wins.
This game features one of the best quarterback battles of the season. Beau Brungard may be one of the favorites for the Walter Payton Award, throwing for 2,082 yards, 14 touchdowns, and three interceptions. He has also recorded 1,041 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, ranking Top 5 nationally for both. DJ Williams is also quietly putting together an All-American season, throwing for 2,023 yards and 15 touchdowns, along with a team-high 569 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns.
Southern Illinois’ defense has been questionable at times this year, but the Salukis actually lead the MVFC in passing defense during conference play. They’ve held their conference opponents to 144.4 yards per game, while forcing three interceptions in the past two games. Can the Salukis slow down the No. 1 passing attack in the MVFC?
Youngstown State leads the MVFC with 275.4 passing yards per game in conference play. Max Tomczak leads the Penguins with 664 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Keep an eye on Ky Wilson, who has been a dynamic weapon for this offense and has totaled 351 yards and three scores. For Southern Illinois, Cejai Parson and Jeremiah McClendon lead the secondary, combining for three interceptions and 12 pass breakups.
Both these offenses are going to find success, but this game may come down to which defense can make 1-2 key plays to secure the win. Give me Youngstown State at home. The Penguins have been more consistent defensively, and I think Brungard is too much for the Salukis on Saturday.
Prediction: Youngstown State (35-31)
Kickoff: 3 pm CT (ESPN+)
This game could have a massive impact not only on the Southland Conference race but also on the FCS Playoff picture.
Southeastern Louisiana remains undefeated against FCS competition and has dominated its opponents. The Lions lead the FCS in point differential against the FCS, winning by an average of 34.9 points per game. Lamar sits at 7-2 overall, but will need to rebound from its first loss of the season last weekend. The Cardinals remain alive for the FCS Playoffs, but need to steal one of the next two games to feel comfortable.
This sport is all about matchups, and this appears to be a mismatch. The Lions have one of the best defenses in the Southland, holding opponents to 18.4 points and 289.1 yards per game. That is going to be an issue for a Lamar offense that’s been inconsistent at best, averaging less than 300 yards per game. Southeastern has playmakers at all three levels, including All-American defensive tackle Kaleb Proctor, who leads the team with 9.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks.
Lamar’s defense will have to find a way to keep this game under 30 points. The Cardinals have been excellent defensively, particularly against the run, where they are only allowing 3.4 yards per carry. Safety Kristian Pugh leads the team with 55 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, two interceptions, and four pass breakups.
Southeastern’s offense has found its rhythm behind quarterback Carson Camp, who has thrown for 1,313 yards and 11 touchdowns. The Lions have a dynamic weapon on the outside in Jaylon Domingeaux, who is having a breakout season with 630 yards and eight scores. Calvin Smith Jr. and Deantre Jackson have split time at running back, combining for over 600 yards and 12 touchdowns.
I still think Lamar is going to sneak into the field as one of the last four teams, but I’m giving the edge to Southeastern Louisiana here. Give me the Lions to make a statement with another dominant win.
Prediction: Southeastern Louisiana (38-14)
Kickoff: 3 pm CT (ESPNU)
Everything about this game is a true unknown. You have questions about Chase Mason’s health and his availability. Will Indiana State beat SDSU twice? Did the upset loss wake the Jacks up? We also don’t know which South Dakota team we will see on Saturday. Do we get the South Dakota team that locked in and upset North Dakota last week? Or do we see the same USD we saw in a disappointing performance against Illinois State and Lamar? Your guess is as good as mine.
To make this as clear as possible, if Mason is still unavailable for the Jacks, I don’t love their chances here. Luke Marble and Jack Henry have not been comfortable at quarterback and have consistently put the ball in dangerous spots. Against a talented USD secondary, that’s a recipe for disaster. There’s experience in the backend of that defense, including DeJuan Lewis and Mikey Munn, that will capitalize on any mistakes either young quarterback makes.
My bold prediction is that Mason will give it a go on Saturday. This feels like a must-win for the Jacks after last week’s upset loss. If they fall to 7-3, with three consecutive losses, it would put this team in jeopardy of missing the postseason. Illinois State and North Dakota are not easy wins to end the year, which leads me to believe that if Mason believes he can play, he’ll take the first snaps.
The biggest key for the Coyotes in this one will be the rushing attack. L.J. Phillips Jr. has been spectacular this season with 1,296 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. SDSU has held opponents to 115.3 yards per game and only 3.8 yards per carry. Linebackers Cullen McShane and Joe Ollman will be key players to watch, especially with Chase Van Tol sidelined with an injury.
SDSU has struggled to find much success on the ground, which is a huge reason that the offense has been anemic without Mason. The Jacks can’t take any pressure off their young quarterbacks, which is something USD may be able to exploit. Josiah Johnson saw more action last week and is a young player to watch for the Jacks. SDSU needs Johnson, or one of Loughridge or Basinger, to have a big game if Mason is unable to go.
I honestly went back and forth about my pick for this game all week. There’s a good chance South Dakota finds a way to get it done at home, while it’s hard to see South Dakota State losing three games in a row. I’m just going to follow my instincts and say the Jacks find a way to win this one late.
Prediction: South Dakota State (23-20)
Kickoff: 1:30 pm CT (ESPN+)
The race for the SoCon auto bid could come to an end on Saturday. Mercer has won seven consecutive games since a Week 1 upset loss, while Western Carolina has won six straight games since an 0-3 start, in which Taron Dickens was unavailable. A win for Mercer will secure the SoCon auto bid, while Western Carolina will need to win this weekend, along with a win in one of its last two games, to receive the auto bid.
All eyes should be locked into this quarterback battle. True freshman Braden Atkinson has been elite, throwing for 2,474 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only four interceptions. He’s most likely already clinched the Jerry Rice Award, but there’s a strong case he should also be a Walter Payton Award finalist. On the other side, Taron Dickens has stepped into superstar status, completing 77% of his passes for 2,201 yards, 26 touchdowns, and only one interception.
This game may come down to whether Mercer’s defense can make a few key stops against Western Carolina’s lethal offense. The Bears lead the SoCon in total and scoring defense, holding opponents to 293.9 yards and 16.6 points per game. If the Bears can limit the Catamounts early, this game gets very difficult for Western Carolina to win, because I don’t see WCU’s defense getting many stops.
Mercer has particularly excelled against the run, holding its past five opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground. The Catamounts are going to run their offense through Dickens, but if they can’t establish any rushing attack, it’ll allow Mercer to pin its ears back and get after the quarterback. The Bears lead the SoCon with 33 sacks, while leading the nation with 4.12 sacks per game. This is a game where Andrew Zock, who leads the Bears with 15 TFLs and 10 sacks, could be the x-factor.
An overlooked aspect of this Mercer offense is the wide receiver room. Adjatay Dabbs has been excellent, posting a team-high 602 yards and five touchdowns, averaging over 18 yards per reception. The Bears also feature three other pass catchers with over 300 yards or more receiving, including Brayden Smith, who leads the team with six touchdowns.
Western Carolina’s defense has not been elite, but one area where the Catamounts have thrived is forcing turnovers. They lead the SoCon with 11 interceptions, which will be a huge key on Saturday. You have a true freshman quarterback coming into a hostile road environment, that’s a recipe for some mistakes that the Catamounts can capitalize on. Defensive backs Hasaan Sykes and Ken Moore Jr. have combined for six interceptions and nine pass breakups.
This has all the makings of a potential instant classic. Elite offenses with superstar quarterbacks, and championship implications on the line. It doesn’t get any bigger than this. Both teams are going to score a lot of points this weekend, but Mercer’s defense will be the difference. The Bears get a handful of key stops in the second half, securing their second consecutive SoCon championship.
Prediction: Mercer (45-35)
Kickoff: 1 pm CT (ESPN+)
North Dakota State has continued to roll, moving to 9-0 overall with five ranked wins, including last week’s victory over Youngstown State. This will be another chance to further solidify themselves as the No. 1 team in the country. On the other side, North Dakota’s five-game win streak was snapped with an upset loss against South Dakota. The Hawks could put themselves right back into the Top 8 seed conversation with a win.
An interesting matchup to watch will be NDSU’s downhill rushing attack against UND’s stout rushing defense. The Hawks lead the MVFC in rushing defense, holding their opponents to 2.7 yards per carry and six of their eight FCS opponents to less than 100 rushing yards. It starts with a talented linebacker core, led by Malachi McNeal, who has posted a team-high 56 total tackles.
NDSU leads the MVFC in rushing offense, but a large majority of that has come from Cole Payton’s ability to make plays with his legs outside the pocket. The Bison have been less efficient with their downhill rushing attack, which could be something to monitor this weekend. Barika Kpeenu will be the x-factor. He leads the Bison with 714 yards and 15 touchdowns this season.
As I seem to mention every week, if any team is going to beat this NDSU team, you have to eliminate broken plays from Cole Payton. He’s been the best quarterback in the country at generating explosive plays when things break down in the pocket. The senior has also been lethal with his arm, throwing for 2,002 yards, 11 touchdowns, and only three interceptions.
The one spot NDSU has a massive advantage is defensively, particularly its passing defense against Jerry Kaminski and the UND passing attack. Only two teams have topped 200 passing yards against the Bison, who are allowing 139.9 yards per game. Kaminski has played well this season, but failed to throw for 200 or more yards in three of the past four games. Outside of BJ Fleming, I question if the Hawks have anyone who can win 1-on-1 matchups on the outside against NDSU’s cornerbacks.
Last week was the trap game for NDSU, which still managed to survive despite not having its best performance. North Dakota could channel the Alerus Center magic once again, but I don’t see NDSU overlooking this game. The Bison seem to always deliver in key moments in the biggest games, which will be the difference on Saturday.
Prediction: North Dakota State (34-27)
No. 2 Montana 45, Eastern Washington 17
No. 3 Montana State 38, Weber State 13
No. 4 Lehigh 38, Holy Cross 10
No. 7 Monmouth 38, New Hampshire 28
No. 10 Villanova 31, Towson 17
No. 11 UC Davis 30, Idaho 27
No. 14 Rhode Island 35, Elon 20
Southern Utah 38, Eastern Kentucky 28
Drake 28, St. Thomas 24
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