Victor Wembanyama’s extreme ceiling: How end-of-season awards voting could be an indicator of historic success

Expectations for San Antonio Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama are mounting.

Should he return for at least one more regular-season game, qualifying for the NBA’s 65-game rule, Wembanyama will almost certainly win Defensive Player of the Year and finish top-five in MVP voting. He would become the first player to do that since Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2020-21, when he led the Milwaukee Bucks to a championship.

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Should we, then, expect Wembanyama to lead the Spurs to a title upon his return from a rib contusion, which leaves him day-to-day in the regular season’s final week? Yes and no.

Plenty of players have finished top-five in MVP and DPOY voting for teams that won 40-something games and failed to escape the first or second round of the playoffs. Among them are Paul George and Sidney Moncrief, whose teams never reached an NBA Finals.

Rarer, though, are players who have finished top-five in MVP and DPOY voting for great teams, as Wembanyama is almost certain to do. (Yes, the Spurs — 61-19, winners of 29 of their last 32, one of two teams to rate top-five on offense and defense, owners of a +8.5 net rating — qualify as a great team.) And, as it turns out, whether they win the title or not this season is a coin flip, and whether he wins one at any point is practically a certainty.

Let me explain.

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On 30 occasions in the 43 years since the NBA debuted its Defensive Player of the Year trophy in 1982-83, 15 different players have finished top-five in both MVP and DPOY voting for a team that won 70% of its games (57-win pace in an 82-game regular season).

And on 15 occasions, half the time, that player went on to win the championship. Never did he lose in the first round of the playoffs. He reached the conference finals 25 out of the 30 times and made the NBA Finals 60% of the time (or 18 of the 30 opportunities).

Because the Spurs are +450 to win the championship, according to BetMGM, that is a pretty good bet, considering, if history is any indication, the title is a 50-50 proposition.

Look who won titles as a top-five MVP and DPOY candidate whose team won 70% of its games: Michael Jordan (four times), Tim Duncan (four times), LeBron James (twice), Hakeem Olajuwon (twice), Giannis Antetokounmpo (2020-21), Kevin Garnett (2007-08), Kobe Bryant (2001-02), Shaquille O’Neal (1999-2000) and Scottie Pippen (1995-96).

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Besides Pippen, who certainly is an extenuating circumstance — he finished top-five in MVP and DPOY voting as the second-best player to Jordan (the MVP) on the 72-win 1995-96 Chicago Bulls — and with the possible exception of Garnett, the rest are all-timers.

It seems obvious: Finish top-five in MVP and DPOY voting, lead your team to 60 wins and a title, and you are an all-timer. What seems less obvious: Wembanyama could join this club at age 22! He would then match Duncan as the youngest ever to achieve this feat.

After all, look who didn’t win titles in the season in which they finished top-five in both MVP and DPOY voting and won at least 57 games: Kawhi Leonard, Dwight Howard, Gary Payton, David Robinson, Patrick Ewing and Kevin McHale. Not quite all-timers. And still five of them (Leonard, Howard, Payton, Robinson and McHale) won titles at some point.

Only Ewing cracked the top-five in both MVP and DPOY and failed to win a title, and he is known for it. Which begs a question: Do you think Wemby is the Ewing of his generation?

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I think we all have the answer to that.

It is remarkable that the Spurs, of all franchises, have featured not one, not two, not three, but four of these 15 players. Which raises another interesting question: Is Wemby more Duncan, Leonard or Robinson? How he fares in the playoffs determines the answer.

There was once a time when Robinson, Olajuwon and Ewing ruled the court, regularly appearing on MVP and DPOY ballots. Duncan and O’Neal carried that forward into the 2000s until, around the time Howard won three straight DPOYs, the 3-point shot exploded and suddenly traditional centers weren’t such valuable two-way commodities.

Since them, the two-way gods are Antetokounmpo, Leonard and James — forwards capable of defending all five positions. Much like Kevin Garnett before them. And even they haven’t been able to make the two-way impact they once did in the 3-point era. It has been five years since someone finished top-five in both the MVP and DPOY voting.

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The demand on the body is too great, to carry so heavy a burden on offense and to cover so much ground on defense. Never again could a traditional center make so broad an impact as Olajuwon once did, when the vast majority of shots were taken in the paint.

Good thing Wembanyama is untraditional. He is a 7-foot-5(?) self-described “alien.” He is so massive, in fact, he can wreak havoc on the defensive end, the way centers once did, only in the 3-point era. His length is that impactful. Adjust your playoff bets accordingly.

As the game has stretched, so too has the center position — in the form of Wemby, and it is entirely within the realm of possibility that he could sustain this the way bigs once did.

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Jordan was an exception, obviously. He finished top-five in MVP and DPOY voting in the same season seven times. Bryant did it twice. Payton and Dwyane Wade each did it once. That is the list of guards who have accomplished the feat. It is that difficult.

It was once easier for bigs. Robinson and Duncan each finished top-five in MVP and DPOY voting in the same season five times. That changed in the 3-point era, when wings became the two-way stars, but if anyone can bring it back it is a wing-center: Wemby.

Would you be at all surprised if Wembanyama, for each season he is healthy for the next decade (at least), accomplishes this feat every year? And if that is the case, we will not be asking whether Wembanyama will deliver a title to San Antonio but just how many.