When | Tuesday; 6:00 p.m. CT
Where | Lloyd Noble Center; Norman, Okla.
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
KenPom prediction | Oklahoma -5
ESPN win probability | 39.6% chance
G: T.O. Barrett (SO, 8.9 PPG)
G: Jayden Stone (GR, 13.9 PPG)
F: Trent Pierce (JR, 10.6 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 17.4 PPG)
C: Shawn Phillips Jr. (SR, 7.7 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Jacob Crews (GR, 9.2 PPG)
G: Nigel Pack (R-SR, 16.1 PPG)
G: Xzayvier Brown (JR, 15.6 PPG)
F: Derrion Reid (SO, 11.3 PPG)
F: Tae Davis (SR, 12.1 PPG)
F: Mohamed Wague (SR, 6.9 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Jadon Jones (R-SR, 5.8 PPG)
Note: these starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Oklahoma: a team that’s starting to cause some problems in the SEC
Mizzou took down the Sooners with the help of not one, but two buzzer beaters back in late January. Here’s what I had to say ahead of that matchup:
Oklahoma ranked as high as 10th in the nation last season following an undefeated run through non-conference play, but the historically strong SEC quickly broke the Sooners down. OU went just 6-12 in conference play despite having eventual top-10 NBA Draft pick Jeremiah Fears on its roster and dropped its first round NCAA Tournament matchup to UConn, ending a once-promising season on a sour note.
The short March Madness appearance was the first of Porter Moser’s now five-year tenure in Norman, a disappointing outcome for a program that hired him when he was one of the most sought-after coaches in America following two Sweet Sixteen berths at Loyola Chicago. But Oklahoma’s tournament berth last season cooled Moser’s hot seat… if only for a little bit.
The Sooners returned just one player who made a start on that team, Mohamed Wague, and two players who averaged over 10 minutes per game.
Forced to work with a practically clean slate, Moser rebuilt his roster with four key transfers that have started every game this season for OU and rank first through fourth on the team in minutes. Oklahoma paired up super senior Nigel Pack, known for his key role on Miami during its Final Four run back in 2023, with All-Atlantic 10 guard Xzayvier Brown in the back court. Double-digit scorer Tae Davis from Notre Dame and former McDonald’s All-American Derrion Reid from Alabama were brought in to team up with the returning Wague and form the team’s trio of starting forwards.
The Sooners may have a dramatically different roster compared to last season’s tournament team, but the results over their first five games of SEC were the exact same: 1-4. And although OU recorded some high-major wins during its non-conference matchups against Marquette, Oklahoma State and Wake Forest, double-digit losses to Arizona State and Gonzaga have the team needing to overperform its projected 12th-place finish in the SEC to get into the postseason conversation.
That’s a conversation getting further and further away with each game. Oklahoma kicked off conference play with an 86-70 win over Ole Miss, but Moser’s squad has suffered double-digit losses to Mississippi State and Florida since then, plus a two-point heartbreaker to Alabama after holding an 11-point lead at halftime.
The Sooners’ latest loss, an 85-76 defeat at South Carolina, dropped them to 11-8 on the season and 1-5 in SEC play with five consecutive losses. With upcoming games against Arkansas, Kentucky and Vanderbilt, the last two of those on the road, OU likely views the game in CoMo as one of its best opportunities to pick up a win over the next few weeks. If the team is unable to do so, and continues on its current course, this season could be Moser’s last in Norman.
Oklahoma dropped three more games after the last-second loss in Columbia, extending its losing streak to nine games. With OU’s NCAA Tournament hopes effectively over, most teams would have seen the dam fully burst and ended their season on a whimper. Instead, the Sooners rallied for a major upset win over then-No. 15 Vanderbilt in Nashville and are 4-2 since snapping their losing streak.
That includes back-to-back wins over Auburn and LSU, the latter of which bumped Oklahoma back above .500 on the season at 15-14. MU enters the Sooner State playing arguably its best basketball of the season, but OU is starting to find its groove and will look to avenge its narrow loss earlier this year. If the Tigers take the court expecting an easy fight, they’re likely to experience a letdown.
One of the strongest indicators for Mizzou over the past month has been points in the paint. The Tigers are 4-0 since the start of February when they score more points in the paint than their opponents. They’re 1-1 when they don’t, and they were tied with Arkansas for points in the paint during the 94-86 loss in Fayetteville.
During Oklahoma’s recent hot streak, the Sooners are 2-0 when they outscore their opponents in the paint. They’re 2-2 when they don’t, a far more pedestrian record than the team’s 4-2 mark as a whole over its last six games. MU also won the scoring battle down low during its first matchup with OU and won the game, too, albeit by a very narrow margin.
Mizzou has been at its best this season when it runs its offense with a focus on grinding down the opposition through domination on the interior and makes life difficult for its opponents in the paint, forcing them to rely on perimeter shooting to generate offense. That combination has made the Tigers difficult to beat, and it was a combination the Sooners were unable to crack the last time these teams faced each other despite a heavy advantage for OU in three-point shooting. It’s also a combination that is becoming increasingly effective for MU thanks to late season development from its big men.
Keep building on improved center play
There’s no position Mizzou has seen more improvement from over the course of the season than center. Shawn Phillips Jr. was a major question mark throughout non-conference play and arguably even into February due to a knack for foul trouble and inconsistent offensive output. He’s tamped down on the fouls (at least somewhat), allowing him to record more than 20 minutes each of the past three games, and reached double-digits in scoring in two of those contests.
But the real game changer for the Tigers has been the late season development of Trent Burns. He got roughly four minutes of playing time over the first nine games of SEC play, rarely seeing the court and often struggling to make an impact when he did. But since the Vanderbilt game, he’s averaging nearly 17 minutes of playing time and set new career highs in scoring and rebounding. Burns turning into a reliable backup center not only took pressure off of Phillips, it added a much-needed eighth member to MU’s rotation.
Burns and Phillips were the key to Mizzou’s 88-64 shellacking of Mississippi State on Saturday, and a remotely similar performance from the duo should allow the Tigers to seize control of the interior in Norman.
Slow down OU’s guard duo
But the Sooners have a duo MU should be worried about, too. Nijel Pack and Xzayvier Brown have paired together in the backcourt to start every game this season for Oklahoma and combined to score just under 32 points per game.
The teammates are also OU’s top two perimeter shooting threats and have hit just over half of the entire team’s three-pointers, with Pack approaching 100 made triples this year on a 45.3 shooting percentage from beyond the arc. The pair also nearly cost the Tigers their last matchup against Oklahoma, scoring a combined 44 points in Columbia and connecting for seven of the Sooners’ 12 three-pointers.
A lot has changed for Mizzou since that last matchup, though. T.O. Barrett has elevated his play to a consistent starting level (a development that started with that late January game), and Anthony Robinson II is showing signs of breaking out of his extended slump. If the Tigers’ pairing of elite perimeter defenders can slow down Pack and Brown, they’ll take away OU’s best avenue to get the win.
My prediction: Mizzou 87 – Oklahoma 83
Revenge is a strong motivator, and Oklahoma will have home court advantage along with some momentum on its side. But MU is playing its best basketball all season, and erasing any lingering doubt about your postseason status is a strong motivator, too.
Mizzou has come a long way since its last matchup with the Sooners. The combination of Phillips and Burns should allow the Tigers to match up favorably with their opponent in the paint, and MU’s guards are also performing at a much higher level than they were in January.
Despite that progress, this should be a tough, closely contested matchup. But after the dramatic turnaround of the last month, my doubts about Mizzou’s performance on the road are beginning to fade, and they’ve already shown they can win the close ones. I’ll take the Tigers by a small margin as MU continues its late season surge and pulls off its own Norman conquest.