Mike Tomlin’s defense has long been the pillar of strength which has helped even moribund Steelers offenses to a winning record, but this year, the script has somewhat flipped.
There are flashy statistics to make this Pittsburgh defense look as dominant as ever. They are fourth in takeaways, sixth in pressure rate and are the fourth best team in the league at preventing their opponents from scoring in the red zone.
But beneath the surface, there are problems which the Packers can exploit as they look to win their third straight game this Sunday.
As a unit, the Steelers rank 19th in points allowed, 28th in yards, 20th in expected points added (EPA) per game and 31st in missed tackles per game. This is not the fundamentally sound, stingy defense on a down to down basis that Tomlin has historically produced.
Turnovers and stiffening up in the red zone have masked the overall issues of the defense, but those things are not purely luck, and Pittsburgh still boasts an elite front which can harass quarterbacks and force mistakes from opposing offenses.
That group is led by T.J. Watt, who needs no introduction, but there are plenty of other threats capable of hurting the Packers on Sunday.
Nick Herbig has arguably been even more impactful as a pass rusher on a snap to snap basis than Watt. They both have the same number of pressures on the season (23) and Herbig has half a sack more (4.5 to 4) despite playing 41 fewer pass rush snaps.
Alex Highsmith has been an excellent bookend to Watt for many years now. While he has missed some time with injury early in the season, he tallied 181 pressures and 27.5 sacks between 2022 and 2024.
Cameron Heyward is still a monster in the middle of the defense against both the run and the pass at 36 years old. He had 60 pressures and eight sacks last year as well as 47 run stops. After Calais Campbell had a strong performance for Arizona last week, there is plenty of evidence to suggest a savvy vet like Heyward could cause real problems for Green Bay’s interior.
This pass rush is serious, and to add to the chaos, Tomlin sends blitzes at the second highest rate in the league.
The Packers will need to draw up and execute an effective plan to give Jordan Love time. They struggled mightily when facing a defensive line with multiple threats in the Browns back in Week 3, although they are a significantly healthier O-line now.
Pittsburgh ranks 20th in yards per carry allowed and 24th in EPA against the run, so running the ball should not be impossible, but Green Bay’s line has not been able to dictate in the run game regularly this year, making life difficult for Josh Jacobs at times.
Relying on more of a quick passing game, which Love and the Packers have been effective at, but have not used often, could help them stay ahead of the sticks.
If they can somewhat nullify the pass rush, the Steelers become a completely different defense. They are one of the very best defenses in the league when they get pressure, and one of the very worst when they do not.
Their linebackers have been liabilities in coverage, with Patrick Queen ranking 52nd out of 79 qualifiers in NFL passer rating allowed, and Payton Wilson ranking 75th.
Behind them, Pittsburgh’s corners are feisty, but they are also old and can be exploited in the right situation.
Jalen Ramsey is PFFs number one cornerback in zone coverage so far this year, but ranks 106th out of 108 qualifiers in man coverage. Likewise, Darius Slay ranks 20th in zone but 60th in man, and appeared to be benched late in last week’s game.
On the flipside, Joey Porter Jr. ranks 15th in man coverage but 69th in zone. He is very physical and is prone to drawing flags.
The Steelers play Cover 1 man 28% of the time, which challenges opponents to throw the ball. They are putting their corners in more isolated, difficult situations and if the pass rush does not get home quickly enough, there are shots to be taken deep.
With Christian Watson seemingly set to make his return to action, the Packers will have arguably their top deep threat available for the first time this season. If Matthew Golden overcomes a hip injury and plays, expect Love to let it rip downfield regularly.
In terms of priorities for the Packers this week, it really starts and ends with keeping Love upright. If they do that, the points will come and very possibly in large quantities.
The simple, but crucial task of taking care of the football and finishing drives in the red zone will also be huge for deciding whether Green Bay wins the battle against Tomlin’s Pittsburgh defense.