The NL Rookie of the Year race is currently a two-man competition between St. Louis Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt and Cincinnati Reds infielder Sal Stewart. Stewart, a Miami native, made his debut for the Reds late last season, while Wetherholt opened this season with the Cardinals.
The odds currently have Wetherholt as the favorite at -165, with Stewart second at +280. Bryce Eldridge of the San Francisco Giants is a distant third at +900; all odds are from DraftKings. The head-scratching part of this NL Rookie of the Year race is the numbers. Wetherholt is having a great year, but so is Stewart. In many statistical categories, Stewart is not only outperforming Wetherholt, but he also holds a significant edge.
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Stewart is hitting .249 with 21 home runs, 74 RBIs, and a .799 OPS. He has a .327 on-base percentage and a .472 slugging percentage.
Wetherholt, on the other hand, has Stewart beat with a .259 batting average, but he has six fewer home runs with 15, and 34 fewer RBIs, with 40. Stewart also owns the higher OPS at .799 compared to Wetherholt’s .755. Stewart also has one more stolen base than Wetherholt, with 11.
The sticking point is WAR, which Wetherholt has Stewart beat handily with a 4.2 WAR, to Stewart’s 1.9.
The former West Virginia standout does have the defensive aspect working in his favor, as he has established himself as one of the best defensive infielders in the league as a rookie, committing just two errors in 398 chances.
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Another factor working in Wetherholt’s favor is winning. St. Louis is in fourth place, but the Cardinals are two games over .500, which is easier to justify to award voters than a last-place team that is seven games below .500.
For Stewart’s Rookie of the Year chances to improve, the Reds’ season will likely have to improve as well. Not necessarily to the point of making the playoffs, but by finishing much stronger than they started. If that turnaround happens, it will likely be because Stewart maintained this level of play or elevated it even further.
It will have to be better than what this month has looked like. In July, Stewart is hitting .209 with five home runs, a .253 on-base percentage and a .746 OPS.
Stewart is an extension candidate for the Reds, but there has been little movement toward getting a deal done. It doesn’t appear he would be willing to accept a team-friendly contract like Chase Burns did recently, given that he could become the first Reds Rookie of the Year since Jonathan India.