Jan. 29, 2026, 11:41 a.m. ET
Senate Democrats opposing ICE funding in a Senate vote today to avoid another government shutdown Jan. 30 at midnight has sent betting odds of a government shutdown soaring Polymarket and Kalshi as the probability of a shut down looms.
Polymarket government shutdown 2026 odds of a shutdown Saturday, Jan. 31 — following a partial shutdown Jan. 30 at midnight —surged this morning, Thursday, Jan. 29, with over $20.5 million in trade volume, as shown in real-time, live trading and betting. Kalshi government shutdown odds show bettors say the likelihood of a shutdown has a 65% chance — with real-time live shutdown odds today quickly gaining traction with trade volume, or total dollar amount wagered on the market, stands at over $16.3 million.
The Senate returned today with a partial shutdown looming, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Republicans teeing up a vote on measures that, in part, would fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). DHS funding bill on ICE funding has drawn ire from Senate Democrats and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who vowed to vote “no” until reforms are made amid the shooting death of Alex Pretti in Minnesota.
As the chances of another government shutdown nears following the last government shutdown in 2025, lasting a record-breaking 43 days, here’s the latest Polymarket and Kalshi government shutdown odds, chances, and predictions.
What are the chances of a government shutdown 2026? Shutdown odds today
The likelihood of a potential government shutdown Saturday, Jan. 31, on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket surged between 66% and 70% in real-time live betting Thursday morning, Jan. 29, 2026. An early morning drop was short-lived, with total trade volume on both sites soaring with live bets surging minute-by-minute.
The legal US prediction platforms have bettors buy shares with live betting in real-time on live events, such as the shutdown, Super Bowl, Bitcoin dips, and current trends, like the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumors. Chances of a government shutdown peaked on both platforms on Jan. 4, when Alex Pretti was shot and killed in Minnesota by federal agents.
Polymarket government shutdown odds, chances
Polymarket government shutdown odds hit 67% chance of a “US government shutdown Saturday,” according to today’s real-time betting odds on the popular prediction market. Despite a dip below 40% Thursday morning, the numbers — and trading volume — has continued to tick up with the Senate live this morning amid a pending Senate vote to avert another government shutdown.
A partial shutdown counts as a full shutdown as bettors buy “yes” for 65 cents and buy “no” for 36 cents today. Polymarket trade volume on the shutdown stands at over $20.6 million.
Kalshi government shutdown odds
Government shutdown odds on Kalshi hit 65% chance the government shuts down, per real-time live trading today, Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026. Kalshi odds skyrocketed on “Government shutdown on Saturday?” has garnered over $16.5 million in trade volume as of Thursday morning, with bettors today buying “yes” for 68 cents and “no” for 33 cents.
Kalshi predictions of a shutdown today are, like Polymarket, a massive shift from an 11% chance on Jan. 23, prior to the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti by border patrol agents on Jan. 24. While betting chances dipped this morning, odds were rising amid a fiery Senate hearing today.
In even greater odds, Kalshi’s “Government shutdown this year” prediction market shows a 75.4% chance of a 2026 government shutdown. These numbers were trending up Thursday morning.
Story continues after the gallery.
Will there be a government shutdown 2026?
A government shut down Saturday, Jan. 31 is possible, since a Senate vote is pending this week that must pass in order to fund key federal departments, including the Pentagon, FEMA, and the Department of Homeland Security. Should the Senate fail to pass a bill by midnight Friday, Jan. 30, some federal employees could face furloughs as a partial shutdown takes effect, although who and what will be affected remains unclear.
At issue by Senate Democrats is a DHS bill to fund ICE and Border Patrol following the fatal shooting of Minnesota man, Alex Pretti, on Jan. 24 at the hands of federal agents. Democrats have vowed to vote “no” on the DHS funding bill unless reforms are made to the measure.
The Senate must pass six of 12 annual spending bills for the 2026 budget to avoid a partial shutdown, effecting funding for the departments of Defense; Labor, Health and Human Services and Education; Transportation and Housing and Urban Development; State; and Treasury.
Lori Comstock is a New Jersey-based journalist with the Mid-Atlantic Connect Team.