The WTA Madrid first round continues on Wednesday. The opening round began on Tuesday with former Major champion Venus Williams losing. Many of the matches on the order of play were straight-set wipeouts. Some players looked fully prepared for this tournament, while others were rusty or simply caught off guard. Let’s see if there are more three-set matches and more overall competitive balance as the tournament continues in Spain. We will look at three matches on the Wednesday card.
WTA Madrid
Pliskova – Kraus: Time 11:00 EST
H2H: 1-0
Karolina Pliskova has played on some of the biggest stages in tennis. Now, near the end of her career, she is ranked just inside the top 200, but she continues, trying to solve problems and remain a threat on the WTA Tour. She is still fighting hard. She won two matches in Linz a few weeks ago and reached the quarterfinals. Sinja Kraus is coming off a very strong qualifying run in Madrid. She just defeated Anastasia Potapova in what was a betting-market upset. Let’s see if she can continue her patch of good form.
Best Bet to Make
Pliskova is an older tennis player playing on clay. Her lack of pure speed is likely to be exposed on this surface. Kraus just beat Potapova, who was in form going into that match. At the very least, Kraus is going to keep this match close. She might even win, but if you want to give yourself a cushion, just take Kraus plus a small number of games against the spread. About 2.5 games should do the trick.
That being said, Kraus +2.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kraus +2.5 games @1.93 @bet-at-home
Zhang – Lys: Time 05:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Shuai Zhang and Eva Lys will meet for the first time. Neither lady enters this match in great form. Zhang is 8-11 overall this year, and she’s currently riding a six-game losing streak. She hasn’t won a match since her quarterfinal appearance at WTA Mérida back at the end of February. Eva Lys is 2-5 this year, having played in only four tournaments, plus two United Cup matches. It’s a match that features utter futility against tournament apathy.
Best Bet to Make
Sorting out the proper strategy for this match will be difficult. Do you value the bad player who has been consistently trying, or do you go with the other bad player, who is largely inactive this year? What I ultimately landed on was this: Lys is easily the better clay court player, but that doesn’t mean she’s a good clay court player. It’s smarter to take the better clay player winning by a reasonable number of matches. A spread of at least 3.5 games offers decent value while also being within the realm of possibility.
That being said, Lys +3.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Lys +3.5 games @1.89 @1xBet
Townsend – Boulter: Time 11:30 EST
H2H: 0-3
Taylor Townsend has never beaten Katie Boulter in three attempts. While only two of their three matches were played at the WTA level, one was in 2018 and the other in 2024. Townsend has been playing well this year, having just lost a final at WTA Austin to Peyton Stearns. This is the first clay match for Townsend this year, and it would also be the first of their rivalry. Boulter has a winning record on clay, but it’s only four games above .500, and she’s played only 40 total matches. Townsend is 117-51 on clay.
Best Bet to Make
I’ll speculate that their overall clay court records are the reason Townsend is a small favorite on the books, even though she is 0-3 against this opponent. You could argue it’s close to a flip, and it is on some books, but the majority see Townsend as a favorite. You would still be forgiven for taking a flier on Boulter at 2.02 on Pinnacle, though. Take Townsend, but bet Boulter straight up if you’re adamant she will win. You can double your investment, and that isn’t bad.
That being said, Townsend winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Townsend winning @1.93 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports